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PLA air operations in westpac region
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
This would be 3 (j16)d chess
It's possible. But then why would Taiwan announce this?
Because their radars picked up 34 J-16s in the air simultaneously.
Did they actually send interceptors to validate that there were indeed 34 planes? China spotted 300 planes in 1994 but found nothing when they sent J-7s to intercept.
The JH-7, JH-7A, and eventually Su-30 brigades can be replaced with J-16/J-16D's over time. That's 4 - 6 brigades.
The J-7 brigade can be replaced with J-10C
The J-8 brigade can be replaced with J-20
With the above replacements, you end up with:
H-6 - 4 brigades
J-20 - 2 brigades
J-10 - 3 brigades
J-16 - 6 - 8 brigades, or 144 - 192 aircraft
The above mapping is meant to be schematic and suggestive, not based on any real information or what's really going to happen exactly.
Even though the J-16 and Su-30 look similar externally, they have vastly different radar signatures.
Assuming J-16 is far smaller due to use of composite.
Continuing the conversation here because the PLAAF thread is more appropriate than PLAN.
Regarding the big trip into the ADIZ a few days ago, Shilao and Ayi had this to say:
They noticed the same thing that I did: the recent exercises into the ROC ADIZ is made up of disproportionate number of J-16s compared the previous similar activities. And it wasn't just the big trip on the 4th that displayed this feature, this happened on the first first big incursion day on 1st of October and was carried through. Here's the numbers for October 1:
Compare the above two to earlier this year:
By Shilao's estimate if you clear the air of everything but fighters you could probably fit about 20 of them operating in the entire Taiwan Strait max before they are too close for comfort, considering modern fighter's speed and sensor package. 34 J-16 along with other aircraft in that small of an area is absurd.
Therefore Shilao believes the activities across these four days to be "EW reconnaissance by fire". Some of those J-16 spotted would be electronic spoof and the numbers were slowly ramped up so as to observe ROCAF response. Shilao thinks the correct response for ROCAF would have been to:
- get AWAC into the area to check it out, they are harder to fool on account of them being mobile
- scramble on duty fighters in to get a visual confirmation, just fly straight and level right into the "fighter wall" and let PLAAF fighters lock on to you and whatever. You'll lose face but at least you'll find out what's going on
- switch on any previously hidden radar and toggle available frequencies trying to spot the decoy signals
- ROCAF can easily be paralysed in war time by complex EW environment
- ROCAF morale is questionable as they're taking a "whatever" attitude to incursions like this
- PLAAF has likely spotted all ROCAF fixed radars in the vicinity, in times of war once they are knocked out by standoff weapons ROCAF will be blind