J-16 is a very versatile workhorse for PLAAF (and soon PLANAF too). They need lots of them.
PLA air operations in westpac region
- Thread starter Deino
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J-16 is a very versatile workhorse for PLAAF (and soon PLANAF too). They need lots of them.
It's got payload, range, current top of the line weapons in the inventory, a pretty modern sensor suite that likely has a rather large radar in its nose, and a relatively modern aircraft that's been in active production for a number of years based on a mature fighter type that the PLA has operated for slightly over two decades.
I suspect that its readiness is no lower than that of any other modern, domestic and mature fighter type that the PLA has (J-10s and J-11Bs included in these), but the aircraft's weapons and sensor suite and its range and payload makes it an ideal aircraft for these kind of exercises and demonstrations.
Here's a thing that Einstein never said:
"Damn, I feel like space and time must be relative rather than absolute."
And not because he'd say that in German.
Jokes aside, moving on:
I looked up my archive - per scramble.nl (early 2021) the Eastern Theater Command has:
- H-6 - 4 brigades*
- J-20 - 1 brigade
- J-16 - 2 brigades
- J-11 - 2 brigades
- Su-30 - 2 brigades
- JH-7 - 2 brigades
- JH-7A - 2 brigades
- J-10 - 2 brigades
- J-7 - 1 brigade
- J-8 - 1 brigade
Every brigade has circa 24 active aircraft, except H-6 brigade which from what I understand is only nominally a brigade and consists of 8-9 bombers.
Here's my interpretation:
Question: which of those units are capable of performing an effective airstrike from a distance preventing a carrier battlegroup from deploying fighters as sea-based air cover for Taiwan?
If you look at the map and only assume that the purpose of this overflight is a demonstration of political will then J-10 or J-11 could be sent on such mission. But it makes no sense to waste fuel on pointless posturing when both the US and China are testing their actual capability. If PLA wants to make a show of force they won't just fly fighters near Taiwan. They will fly fighters "near" the USN carriers which means at a hypothetical effective strike distance. That's the thing that matters here. And it doesn't matter if that's the actual effective strike distance or if it's actually greater or smaller. That's what PLA wants USN to consider as "approved tactic".
Take the distance to the eastern border of Taiwan's airspace and add the combat radius of a Super Hornet with an air-to-air loadout. That's the most obvious red line that PLA wants to establish with USN. F-35C doesn't matter at this point because they're still being introduced and there are not enough of them at this point that the tactic needs to be changed more than by adding an AEW aircraft and some J-20s. Also it is very unlikely that USN will test F-35C in "actual" tactical scenario since they want to keep that information secret much like PLA does with their solutions. That won't change before 2024-26 when sufficient numbers of F-35Cs and MQ-25s come into service.
For now what those overflights test is the decision proces (as explained above) and the logistics of an airstrike including the necessary elements of the kill-chain. As such the J-16 fly as if they were loaded with whatever payload is designated for such mission. Typically only a few aircraft will carry the payload to test flight performance and systems while other aircraft will fly clean to save fuel and airframes. The reason why a large number of J-16s is put in the air is to test the infrastructure on the ground and support or organizing the flight group.
To test their usefulness in whatever tactical scenario was being explored or just as comparison since practical tests in the same conditions give most meaningful data. You have to fly the aircraft as it is intended to be flown and record the data from the sensors, from the flight instruments, collect the data on the flight performance etc. Everything else is speculation when it comes to combat conditions. It's tested in combat-like conditions or it is not tested.
Su-30s in PLA are not very useful against carrier battlegroup because of their radars and lack of modern munitions. The best PLA's Su-30s are worse than RuAF's Su-34s which is worse than J-16.
Su-30s will probably be retired from active service and moved to training duties - much like it's done in Russia - but for now they can still perform limited airstrikes in more permissible environment and so they're kept in active service until their replacements are available. I don't know much about JH-7A but it is possible that it will be retained in active service longer than Su-30 because of the ability to integrate domestic munitions and systems. Even if Su-30 is tactically a better platform (if - I don't know) then logistics for JH-7A is better and in war logistics always trumps tactics. Because of that I think that the JH-7 will go first,and then Su-30s and they will be replaced by J-16 while JH-7A will be upgraded if necessary or redirected to secondary missions. Which is why J-16 is being tested extensively and in conditions imitating real combat conditions and not the other types.
That's all I have.
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i dont know if h6 brigades only have 8～9 a/c. are you talking specificlly about etc h6 brigades, or all of them
solarz
Brigadier
Yeah, just like those routine amphibious landing exercises.
lcloo
Captain
It will be quiet again when the US, UK, Japanese, Dutch and Australian ships and aircraft carriers go back to their home ports. Meanwhile the US will carry out daily incursion into Chinese air space, Oops! I mean Chinese ADIZ.
US incursion into Chinese ADIZ is more than a thousand each year, for many decades since the formartion of PRC. Last years incursion was around 1,500 from a old Chinese news article several months ago. I rarely see any Chinese complaint on daily basis like what the Japanese and ROC Taiwanese do.
US incursion into Chinese ADIZ is more than a thousand each year, for many decades since the formartion of PRC. Last years incursion was around 1,500 from a old Chinese news article several months ago. I rarely see any Chinese complaint on daily basis like what the Japanese and ROC Taiwanese do.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Probably there to radar lock anything Taiwan dares to send up against the Chinese planes.
The Su30s are so old and marginal these days in terms of air combat they can happily use wartime modes and frequencies without giving anything away that might be operationally meaningful. OTOH, they might just get actual wartime ECM signals back from their targets if they don’t want to be sitting ducks ready for the PLAAF to kill any time they want. Which will be operationally significant if the balloon ever goes up for real.
this is a really good take, I have pretty much the same opinion as you. these are trial runs for actual combat and it is a lot more than just flying there and back. All the C2 and logistics that supports the move are what is really being practiced.
Has anyone considered the possibility that there really weren’t 34 J-16s in the air simultaneously?