PLA air operations in westpac region

Temstar said:

Given ROCAF didn't do any of the above and just published the crazy numbers the conclusion by Shilao is:

• ROCAF can easily be paralysed in war time by complex EW environment
• ROCAF morale is questionable as they're taking a "whatever" attitude to incursions like this
• PLAAF has likely spotted all ROCAF fixed radars in the vicinity, in times of war once they are knocked out by standoff weapons ROCAF will be blind

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MarKoz81 said:

...

I looked up my archive - per scramble.nl (early 2021) the Eastern Theater Command has:

• H-6 - 4 brigades*
• ....

Every brigade has circa 24 active aircraft, except H-6 brigade which from what I understand is only nominally a brigade and consists of 8-9 bombers.

...

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Temstar said:

View attachment 77949

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solarz said:

Maybe someone can enlighten me here. Seems to me the PLA is just flying in one small corner of that absurdly huge Taiwan ADIZ.

What exactly is the big deal?

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Temstar said:

View attachment 77949

PLA Navy news, pics and videos

Oof, that's a spicy meat ball

www.sinodefenceforum.com

PLA Navy news, pics and videos

Oof, that's a spicy meat ball

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Continuing the conversation here because the PLAAF thread is more appropriate than PLAN.

Regarding the big trip into the ADIZ a few days ago, Shilao and Ayi had this to say:

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They noticed the same thing that I did: the recent exercises into the ROC ADIZ is made up of disproportionate number of J-16s compared the previous similar activities. And it wasn't just the big trip on the 4th that displayed this feature, this happened on the first first big incursion day on 1st of October and was carried through. Here's the numbers for October 1:
View attachment 77950
Compare the above two to earlier this year:
View attachment 77951
View attachment 77952

By Shilao's estimate if you clear the air of everything but fighters you could probably fit about 20 of them operating in the entire Taiwan Strait max before they are too close for comfort, considering modern fighter's speed and sensor package. 34 J-16 along with other aircraft in that small of an area is absurd.

Therefore Shilao believes the activities across these four days to be "EW reconnaissance by fire". Some of those J-16 spotted would be electronic spoof and the numbers were slowly ramped up so as to observe ROCAF response. Shilao thinks the correct response for ROCAF would have been to:

• get AWAC into the area to check it out, they are harder to fool on account of them being mobile
• scramble on duty fighters in to get a visual confirmation, just fly straight and level right into the "fighter wall" and let PLAAF fighters lock on to you and whatever. You'll lose face but at least you'll find out what's going on
• switch on any previously hidden radar and toggle available frequencies trying to spot the decoy signals

Given ROCAF didn't do any of the above and just published the crazy numbers the conclusion by Shilao is:

• ROCAF can easily be paralysed in war time by complex EW environment
• ROCAF morale is questionable as they're taking a "whatever" attitude to incursions like this
• PLAAF has likely spotted all ROCAF fixed radars in the vicinity, in times of war once they are knocked out by standoff weapons ROCAF will be blind

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plawolf said:

I think that bomber formation is more of simulated mopping up exercise against hostile enemy navy forces operating east of Taiwan after an initial AShBM alpha strike.

Fighters are there to deal with any surviving CAP from the carriers and/or fighters from Taiwan, J16s are there for the same and SEAD/DEAD against land based SAMs, and ASW MPA is there to try their luck to see if they can catch and kill the obligatory enemy SSN that always operates with CSGs while they are out there.

For an alpha strike against Taiwan, I would expect that to come via ground based cruise and ballistic missiles as well as longer ranges MLRS as opposed to massed air.

The air assets will take off at the same time as the initial missile strike to maximise element of surprise and to capitalise on the initial strike to deliver the crippling death strike while enemy defences are still reeling/reloading after the initial missile strikes.

UCAVs will move in as a third wave to effectively lock in earlier gains by providing real time 24/7 monitoring of key instillations like airfields to ensure repair work does not happen, and to mop up any assets that survived the initial strikes. Same with SAM and AShBM sites and even highway stretches pre-prepared as emergency runways.

Realistically, I would expect the PLA to achieve similar air dominance as the allies did during desert storm and Kosovo within the first 24-72 hours, with naval interdiction flights like the one described above viable from thereafter since Taiwan’s ground based air and SAM forces are expected to be destroyed or thoroughly suppressed by then to allow such forces to operate east of Taiwan without too much risk from Taiwan itself.

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Kancil said:

The initial attack should include electro-magnetic strikes to disable all power and telecommunication facilities military and civilian, and also cut all the undersea fiber-optic cables emanating from Taiwan island.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

Jamming Taiwanese ability to communicate with the outside world will be key to controlling not only the battlefield but the narrative. A media blackout is hugely beneficial for China as that gives maximum freedom of operation for the PLA.

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Heliox said:

I disagree.

I have full confidence that the PLA will maintain discipline and conduct itself with dignity. Unlike what we've seen of western military conduct in recent years, it has nothing to hide.

In the vacuum of a info blackout from Taiwan, it is definite that the west will manufacture something from nothing and push all kinds of disinformation to bring international pressure on China - kinda like what it is doing with Xinjiang.

A total media blackout will only fit the tropes of China and allow imagination to run wild in MSM. Better to manage it with both controlled official media and "uncontrolled" pro-China agents.

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