I have an entire essay in my head about the population decline economic doom thesis (I have an entire book in my head about ideas that establishment economists and adjacent public commentators get wrong about economic growth and development). But the cheeky tweet form of that essay is "What will happen first, the economy losing its labor force to population decline or everyone losing their jobs to robots".
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The Russians really messed up by not partnership up with China when they had a chance. But I guess they also have to maintain that facade in order to keep getting export sales.
I believe Shilao/Yankee said that they train extensively and that they are between US and Russia in terms of the # of PGMs they have. Based on them talking about this so extensively, I think this number is growing fast.
The other thing is that with the proliferation of drones and small PGMs/ground attack missiles, PLA is likely to just use drones to terrorize ground target (after achieving air dominance).
The problem is that certain people like Peter Zeihan keep getting air time, because people want to hear that China will suddenly collapse and that manufacturing will come back to America.
Half of the most recent college graduating class from China could not secure job offers. That does not sound like an economy that's running out of labors. For the foreseable future, I think the Chinese government will be more preoccupied with trying to create meaningful jobs rather than not having enough labors.
When the recent Baidu robotaxi came out, one question was how do you keep employed when robotaxis don't need humans anymore. For example in Beijing, you can't only be a taxi driver if you are from Beijng proper or surrounding areas. Local government really still try very hard to create employment opportunities.
Now, I do think China needs to reverse its population trend if it wants to keep developing talented individuals needed to drive innovation and development. They don't want to become Japan, SK or Singapore or even Taiwan, where people are just not having children.
These people are also the same bunch of people who are more happy to see China getting hurt and weakened, rather than actually seeing that those jobs flow back to their own citizens.
Just look at how those bunch of clowns in the EU parliament are so estatic to shoot Putin's Russia with a revolver pistol, without realising that they have shot themselves in the foot with a fricking shotgun.
Honestly, across the Atlantic, the politicians are the same breed. Moaning, complaining, shouting slogans like "China stole our jobs!" "All jobs in China must return to America!" plus hyping up the "China bad, China threatening USA, China must fall", and what did they mostly do?
Most of them who agreed simply shifted their factories from China to other countries with lower manufacturing costs than China in Southeast Asia and South Asia. The so-called "actual help to the American people" remains zilch, because all those American CEOs and shareholders still want their big fat profits and bonuses.
And we haven't yet mention how China is starting to open factories in the USA and employing the American people to work.
In the end, the American people are the ones who got stuck in their own misery, while being misled and fooled to hate and despise other countries and their people who aren't the ones causing their current mess in the first place.
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This is getting OT, and I'm sure a mod will relocate this conversation, but this has to be said: The reason Russia didn't partner with China isn't because of anything so sophisticated as maintaining a façade for export customers, it was simple racism. Sad but true.
I sometimes like to tie historical events to Chinese GDP just to show how far China's come and it's apt to do so now. When Vladimir Putin became president of Russia, China's GDP was below $2 trillion (smaller than India's today); today China's GDP is approaching $20 trillion. China's economy grew by an order of magnitude in a generation.
This news hasn't reached Vatnik yet. A lot of words - even a lot of nice words - can appropriately be used to describe Russians by and large, but "worldly" isn't one of them. That's why this kick in the teeth Europe delivered them is so salutary, it's going to force them to reckon with the choices they've made in the past and what their pining Europhilia has gotten them. Their eyes have been forcibly opened and now they shall see the world for how it truly is.
It will be painful for them, but pain is the best teacher.
I wish such equations were that linear, but if they were, this would've happened after the Russo-Japanese war.
Off. Topic. BULLSHIT.
I very much apologize for that mistake.
My Mandarin level has become rusty after years of leaving school.
Time to self-report yourself to re-education gulag...I very much apologize for that mistake.
My Mandarin level has become rusty after years of leaving school.
No worries. The sentences can be interpreted both waysI very much apologize for that mistake.
My Mandarin level has become rusty after years of leaving school.
In today's live he mentioned that anything more advanced than rockets and regular bombs isn't allowed to be disclosed.