PLA 39th Army Group maneuvering close to North Korean Border

J

jobjed

Captain
TerraN_EmpirE said:
one, not just the US but the western world as a whole. South Korea is a export heavy market. But with close alliances across the west and east.

Two it would be a foolhardy to unilaterally cut ties. As it would be cutting off your own legs for little but promises.

3.2 Trillion dollars would probably not even start the conversation about a true nation rebuild of North Korea. A few years back NASA for fun assembled using satellite photos a night time globe. If you look at this globe made of millions of satellites photos and look to Asia you see a map of stars each star being lights from the ground. Street lights, homes, office buildings, cars. you could clearly see Japan as a blanket of stars, Taiwan as a blanket of stars, the cities of China mapped out in lights with smaller ones in rural China, south Korea mapped out in detail by lights and in the center of this Black. North Korea with the exception of Pyongyang a void like a black hole. Even Siberia was better lit.
The PRC has invested billions to try and establish a modern economic growth program with North Korea. But the North Koreans are just not interested, in forced reunification the cost of economic development for the North is going to be ringing in a lot more then anything the leadership of the CCP would be willing to lay down.

Phead, The US is not insolvent, she may barrow but she is hardly bankrupt the amount of income vs the amount of interest for loans in the US even with the Obama administration is still decidedly in the US favor. The US remains the top economy and is still capable of expansion. The claims of US bankruptcy are total bull. If they were true why would China be buying? Why would foreign investment still be active? Why would a number of Chinese billionaires have just invested in Detroit?!

oh yes the classic, Japan... Oh... The fear of Japan. Even if Abe were the Demonic nationalists Imperialist Hardliner plotting the conquest of Asia it be a pipe dream. The SDF has a fine navy, fare Army and good Air force but take a second look. The Japanese are aging. There population is falling, military budget is still only .3% of GDP. Every program that has popped up on the radar is not a major breakthrough but a replacement or upgrade, and for each other nations have more or less parity.
sorry but the threat of Japan is a old nightmare, the Bushido spouting Samurai sword wielding soldiers of the past are dead and dying. The book of Bushido is today a book of gulf scores and the Samurai sword is a cane. The remilitarized Japan is a nation that is more or less reactionary. The most offensive action a aging PM visits to a Shinto shrine, a action he actually held off on doing until his attempt at offering a hand to south Korea was answered with insult and his request at negotiations with The PRC replied with demands of surrender. So Abe did what you do when in that situation a political obscene hand gesture.

Finally if Korea were Reunited, The reunited Korean state should in my opinion move to Neutrality. Play at keeping both the US and PRC close but neither to close. A reunification if successful offers a possibility that Korea may become the next great Asian success story. Remember Germany was divided, one side highly industrial the other strictly limited. Reunification nearly bankrupting Germany in the 1990s, today Germany is the European powerhouse and its not all due to China. Establish its own Orbit not play to a others.
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Whether or not Japan is still militaristic at heart or simply remilitarising as a reaction towards regional tensions is irrelevant. Regardless of the reasons behind her remilitarisation, her two (3) neighbours would still view the act with resentment; whether that's fair or not to Japan is your opinion. You may believe Japan is a benevolent country, but you're not the one ruling China, either Koreas or a potential united Korea. At the end of the day, Korea and China would still view Japanese remilitarisation with antagonism, it makes no difference what third-party observers believe of Japan.

What you think a united Korea 'should' do probably won't correlate with what they 'will' do. You are suggesting something that would be nigh impossible for a united Korea. The world's two major economies are the USA and China, and China is becoming more and more prominent by the day. A united Korea would be the ultimate and most obvious battleground for influence between the US and China, and there will be a winner and a loser. Whether or not a united Korea will choose to side with China or the US will depend on how large and influential China has become when reunification occurs, either that or China effects a regime change in a united Korea to place a friendly administration in power. Bottom line is Korea will not remain 'neutral'; as a newly reunited and social-economically polarised nation, united Korea would be vulnerable to many potential calamities. It is most logical that they would seek outside assistance whether it be infrastructure investment, loans etc.

I don't understand your bringing Germany into this debate. The analogy is not applicable to a united Korea. First of all, the gap between North and South Korea is several increments above that of the gap between East and West Germany; integrating North and South Korea together will be a MUCH more difficult endeavour. Second, Germany only has her own 'orbit' or sphere of influence because the countries around her are small and do not have a lot of influence themselves. Korea does not have that option; right on her border is an economic and military titan and right across the Sea of Japan is another economic giant, albeit declining. If anything, it will be Korea's neighbours who exert their spheres of influence on Korea, not the other way around. Third, wouldn't Germany's case work against your argument? United Germany chose a side; NATO and Western allies as opposed to the Warsaw Pact. They did not remain neutral, as a united Korea will also not remain neutral.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
escobar said:
huh, using foreign reserves to pay for NK Reconstruction?? You don't seem to know what foreign reserves are used for.
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China can use her foreign reserves ($3.2Trillion) to purchase Korean treasury bonds/Korean government debt, which is used to finance NK reconstruction. You don't seem to know what foreign reserves are used for.



escobar said:
the funding for a possible reconstruction of NK does not concern China, let alone the US. It's SK problem.
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U.S. housing bubble collapse in 2008 does not concern China, it's U.S. problem, so China shouldn't loan U.S. trillions of dollars to stimulate economy, bailout banks, pay for bills.

Plus, China can gain unrival economic influence in Unified Korea with $3.2 trillion dollars of foreign reserves to assist in NK reconstruction - just as China gains economic/political influence by holding massive amounts of U.S. treasury debt.


Terran_Empire said:
Phead, The US is not insolvent, she may barrow but she is hardly bankrupt the amount of income vs the amount of interest for loans in the US even with the Obama administration is still decidedly in the US favor. The US remains the top economy and is still capable of expansion. The claims of US bankruptcy are total bull. If they were true why would China be buying? Why would foreign investment still be active? Why would a number of Chinese billionaires have just invested in Detroit?!
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Are you suggesting that U.S. can effectively compete with China on economic aid and low-interest loans to Unified Korean reconstruction?

You mean U.S., which is excessively indebted and have budget balance sheet problems, can assist in "nation-building" in North Korea post-unification?

U.S. is excessively indebted, she cannot compete with economic aid/loans to Unified Korea against China, that is a fool hardy proposition to make.

Terran_Empire said:
Finally if Korea were Reunited, The reunited Korean state should in my opinion move to Neutrality.
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You mean superficial aura of nominal neutrality, but we all know when China dispenses some of her $3.2 trillion dollars of foreign reserves to purchase Korean debt/treasury bonds, we know which state Unified Korea will be aligned with, as economically/politically will be embraced in Chinese orbit.

United States is incapable of providing low-interest economic aid/loans to Unified Korea for reconstruction, and most certainly cannot compete with Chinese economic aid/loans.
 
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Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
TerraN_EmpirE said:
The most offensive action a aging PM visits to a Shinto shrine, a action he actually held off on doing until his attempt at offering a hand to south Korea was answered with insult and his request at negotiations with The PRC replied with demands of surrender. So Abe did what you do when in that situation a political obscene hand gesture.
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Yashkuni is far from simply a Shinto shrine, because in addition to honoring millions of Japanese war dead (which no one objects), it also honors 14 Class-A war criminals who were guilty of atrocities every bit as bad or worse as crimes committed by the Nazis. Abe’s visit to Yasukuni is equivalent to Prime Minister Angela Merkel paying homage to a shrine containing Himmler, Goering, and Goebbels.

Located next to the shrine is Yushukan “museum” that is condemned worldwide as extreme Japanese revisionist propaganda. The so called museum paints Japan as the victim and not the aggressor. It blames the Western powers for forcing Japan into war, and makes light of Japanese atrocities before and during the war. Finally, it berates Japan's neighbors for not giving Japan credit for driving Western imperialist out of Asia.

Shinzo Abe’s visit to Yashkuni Shrine, over objections of China, Korea, and the US, gives a big fat finger to everyone in the region and serves notice his administration will whitewash and rewrite history to suit revisionist fantasies.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
PLA mobilizes 100,000 troops for N Korean border exercise


Nearly 100,000 Chinese soldiers and thousands of vehicles from the 16th and 39th Army Groups of the Shenyang Military Region have been mobilized for a winter exercise near the North Korean border to prepare for a potential crisis over the Korean peninsula, reports the Seoul-based Chosun Ilbo.

The exercise launched on Jan. 10 is being held in the border region between the Changbai mountain and Heilongjiang river, the paper said.

The drill is a normal military exercise to train soldiers to fight in winter and long-range conditions, according to national state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV). However, a source from the People's Liberation Army said that it is very rare to see 100,000 military personnel mobilized for a regular exercise. The 39th Army Group has only just completed its "Iron Flow 134" exercise in the region late last year, the source added.

Chinese authorities have declared that no civilian vessels are allowed to enter the waters of the Bohai Strait and northern part of the Yellow Sea between Jan. 10-17 due to the military operation. Observers claim that the PLA chose to launch the military exercises after the execution of Jang Sung-taek, former vice chairman of North Korean National Defense Commission, by order of North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un. The latest political struggle and execution in the reclusive nation has concerned many in China as Jang was in charge of economic affairs and cooperation with China.

The CCTV report said that the current exercise is being held only 220 kilometers away from North Korea's Sinuiju Special Administrative Region. Observers said that it is a move to show strength and maintain regional security and stability on the Korean peninsula.

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Commentary:

You don't mobolize 100,000 troops near Sinuiju unless you are making a statement, and that statement is: "Do not use WMD pretext to topple N. Korea. N. Korea is CHINESE sphere of influence!!"
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Phead128 said:
Commentary:

You don't mobolize 100,000 troops near Sinuiju unless you are making a statement, and that statement is: "Do not use WMD pretext to topple N. Korea. N. Korea is CHINESE sphere of influence!!"
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The PLA exercise was probably a message to North Korean leaders not to get out of hand with more stupid nuclear threats.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Blackstone said:
The PLA exercise was probably a message to North Korean leaders not to get out of hand with more stupid nuclear threats.
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China already installed a Chinese version of "Stuxnet virus" to pre-empt rogue nuclear warheads in an unapproved offensive war, just as U.S. had the source code for Siemens designed industrial control systems, China has the source code for AQ Khan supplied Pakistani technologies to N. Korea.

China is using N. Korea to probe the red line (tolerance level) of ROK-US alliance, and apparently, they could take a giant boot up their butt and still laugh it off as if their 'Asian Pivot' is still effective.
 
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Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Phead128 said:
China already installed a Chinese version of "Stuxnet virus" to pre-empt rogue nuclear warheads in an unapproved offensive war, just as U.S. had the source code for Siemens designed industrial control systems, China has the source code for AQ Khan supplied Pakistani technologies to N. Korea.

China is using N. Korea to probe the red line (tolerance level) of ROK-US alliance, and apparently, they could take a giant boot up their butt and still laugh it off as if their 'Asian Pivot' is still effective.
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Stop the war drums and the non-stop anti-America trolling. Mao already proved beyond any reasonable doubt to the world what happens when US troops move much beyond the 38th Parallel. And if China was willing to fight a war with the Allies when it was fragmented and weak, then what do you suppose China would do now that it's much stronger?

There is no chance the US/ROK would launch a preemptive ground war against the DPRK without Chinese acceptance and participation, and the joint enterprise would only proceed as the last resort. Full stop.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
Stop the war drums and the non-stop anti-America trolling.
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Good advise.

Phead128, the thread is not about China preparing to go to war against the United States, or using thier manuevers to prove that the US pivot to the Pacific is uselss. Do not endeavor to make it about that.

The pivot is not about conducting a ground war on the mainland at all. Stop beating the war drums on war between the US and China using North Korea as a proxy.

These Chinese manuevers are much more send a message to the boy-child dictator in North Korea regarding his own antics, the latest of which was him brutally killing his uncle who was viewed by the Chinese as a decent, friendly diplomat to the PRC.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
You realize a joint-enterprise is tantamount to inviting a permanent U.S. military presence post-unification.

The presence of U.S. troops in N. Korea (unilaterally or joint-enterprise) would vastly increase the diplomatic leverage U.S. has to maintaining a military presence post-unification.

Joint-enterprise insinuates an American challenge to China, as if Chinese special forces are incapable of monitoring, surveying, and managing rogue nuclear materials in nuclear facilities, and relies on American special forces to do the heavy work for them...

That's the exact thinking that IJA did to Qing intervention forces during the Korean request of Donghawk rebellion...
 
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Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
You realize a joint-enterprise is tantamount to inviting a permanent U.S. military presence post-unification.

The presence of U.S. troops in N. Korea (unilaterally or joint-enterprise) would vastly increase the diplomatic leverage U.S. has to maintaining a military presence post-unification.

Joint-enterprise insinuates an American challenge to China...(blah, blah, blah).
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Phead128, what is it about a "joint enterprise," that causes such problems? A joint mission between China and the US in resolving th NK issue would have to be exactly that, a "joint" effort.

Therefore, it would be agreed to beforehand. This means that whatever happened, whether there was US involvement in the North or not, it would have been agreed to by both sides beforehand.

That being the case, all of this talk about subterfuge is meaningless, as the Chinese would never agree to such an exercise if they had that kind of problem with it, or thought for a minute that it would lead to conditions like what you describe.
 
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