@Equation
I understand your point of view, and you are basically saying S. Korea is not strategically independent since it derives good tech and trade benefits from U.S.
Indeed, I think you are correct, S. Korea cannot ditch the alliance unilaterally.
So I think perhaps China should disburse some of her $3.2 trillion dollars foreign reserves to help pay for Unification Reconstruction costs, since it will gain tremendous economic influence buy purchasing Korean treasury bonds to pay for reconstruction of North Korea (projected to be $1-3 trillion dollars).... U.S. on the other hand is kinda bankrupt, unable to contribute to "nation-building" in North Korea.
Insistence of eviction of U.S. troops from Korean peninsula, common enemy of re-militarized Japan, and Chinese purchase of Korean treasury bonds will be good enough to secure unified Korea in China's orbit. The alternative would be war, which nobody wants lol.
one, not just the US but the western world as a whole. South Korea is a export heavy market. But with close alliances across the west and east.
Two it would be a foolhardy to unilaterally cut ties. As it would be cutting off your own legs for little but promises.
3.2 Trillion dollars would probably not even start the conversation about a true nation rebuild of North Korea. A few years back NASA for fun assembled using satellite photos a night time globe. If you look at this globe made of millions of satellites photos and look to Asia you see a map of stars each star being lights from the ground. Street lights, homes, office buildings, cars. you could clearly see Japan as a blanket of stars, Taiwan as a blanket of stars, the cities of China mapped out in lights with smaller ones in rural China, south Korea mapped out in detail by lights and in the center of this Black. North Korea with the exception of Pyongyang a void like a black hole. Even Siberia was better lit.
The PRC has invested billions to try and establish a modern economic growth program with North Korea. But the North Koreans are just not interested, in forced reunification the cost of economic development for the North is going to be ringing in a lot more then anything the leadership of the CCP would be willing to lay down.
Phead, The US is not insolvent, she may barrow but she is hardly bankrupt the amount of income vs the amount of interest for loans in the US even with the Obama administration is still decidedly in the US favor. The US remains the top economy and is still capable of expansion. The claims of US bankruptcy are total bull. If they were true why would China be buying? Why would foreign investment still be active? Why would a number of Chinese billionaires have just invested in Detroit?!
oh yes the classic, Japan... Oh... The fear of Japan. Even if Abe were the Demonic nationalists Imperialist Hardliner plotting the conquest of Asia it be a pipe dream. The SDF has a fine navy, fare Army and good Air force but take a second look. The Japanese are aging. There population is falling, military budget is still only .3% of GDP. Every program that has popped up on the radar is not a major breakthrough but a replacement or upgrade, and for each other nations have more or less parity.
sorry but the threat of Japan is a old nightmare, the Bushido spouting Samurai sword wielding soldiers of the past are dead and dying. The book of Bushido is today a book of gulf scores and the Samurai sword is a cane. The remilitarized Japan is a nation that is more or less reactionary. The most offensive action a aging PM visits to a Shinto shrine, a action he actually held off on doing until his attempt at offering a hand to south Korea was answered with insult and his request at negotiations with The PRC replied with demands of surrender. So Abe did what you do when in that situation a political obscene hand gesture.
Finally if Korea were Reunited, The reunited Korean state should in my opinion move to Neutrality. Play at keeping both the US and PRC close but neither to close. A reunification if successful offers a possibility that Korea may become the next great Asian success story. Remember Germany was divided, one side highly industrial the other strictly limited. Reunification nearly bankrupting Germany in the 1990s, today Germany is the European powerhouse and its not all due to China. Establish its own Orbit not play to a others.
