PLA 39th Army Group maneuvering close to North Korean Border

kroko said:

None of these scenarios are politically realistic.

Once the NK communist regime is gone, North Korea will be history. The NK people will want reunification with SK who would basically annex NK (like what happened in Germany. The unification was basically an annexation of East Germany by West Germany, for obvious reasons).

And why would the unified Korea want to ally with china? Japan is not an enemy of SK. Most of all, SK is a treaty ally of the US, and so is japan. The US is the true power between them, and always been since the end of WWII, which was 70 years ago, a lot of time already. Don’t get illusions. SK will not ally with china. If anything, china perceived as an enemy of SK, which has maintained the division of the Korean peninsula with its support of NK, which is the arch-enemy of SK.

Once this regime start to unravel, the only way of china to salvage what is left of its interests in the Korean peninsula, is to militarily occupy NK (support of someone of the ruling regime would help) and impose conditions for the Korean unification: US pullout of Korea and end of alliance with the US. Korea would be a neutral nation, if SK would accept that.

Of course, china would be on its way of becoming an international pariah in doing so.

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While I'm not saying the scenarios presented above are particularly likely, there are a few things wrong with your analysis. First, you assume that SK would gladly annex NK. That is far from the truth. Germany spent a tremendous amount of resources in order to re-integrate the East German population, and East Germany was not nearly as destitute as NK! Where would SK find the funds to create jobs for 24 million North Koreans? And if they can't find jobs for these people, what do you think will those 24 million people will do?

Secondly, SK has been distancing itself from Japan for quite a while now. First, the military intelligence pact was scrapped amid widespread public anger. Then the newly elected SK president was seen cozying up to Xi. Now SK has apparently all but acknowledged China's ADIZ and have even expanded their own ADIZ at the detriment of Japan.

The Korean situation is very tricky, and I for one do not see any easy solutions out of the current stalemate. However, I do think that it would be a mistake to consider it in isolation of other events, such as China-Japan relations, and possibly even Cross-Strait relations.

Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are the three strongholds that USA has built around China. It's pretty clear that China has been actively wooing both Taiwan and South Korea. Because of historical issues, friendly relations with Japan is all but impossible. Without those 3 states, the US would be powerless in that region. Therefore, when considering its options on the Korean issue, China needs to keep its eyes on the real goal.

When Mao sent the PVA into the Korean theatre, the goal was to keep a buffer zone between NW China and US military. 60 years later, that is no longer such a crucial concern. China has sufficient strength to repel any ground invasion, even one spear-headed by the US. Thus, the status quo is maintained out of inertia than any real advantage.

That said, the inertia is not just a minor detail, but truly the elephant in the room. The biggest concern for both China and SK is what to do with NK refugees should the NK regime be toppled. Neither nation wants to deal with millions of refugees flowing over the border, and neither do they have any idea on what could be done. In fact, I think that is the real reason China wants NK to modernize. I suspect the Kims are aware of this, hence why I don't hold any hope of them doing anything other than just paying lip service to Beijing.

chuck731 said:

1. ROK and China's perception of future of Korean Penninsula are unlikely to be compatible. Unified Korea would unboubtedly look to Ethnic Koreans in Northern China as next logical area of Korean national aggrandizement. Look at the population trends and economic growth rates. Within 30-50 years or so of unification, Korea would likely surpass Japan in population and economic strength. When polite diplamatiese is thrown away, it is unlikely any Chinese planner with foresight would really welcome these developments.

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What Korean national aggrandizement do you mean? The China-Korea border along the Yalu River has been incredibly stable for about 1,000 years, and there's no reason to believe a unified Korea wouldn't have the same border along the Yalu. A unified Korea would improve stability and intensify economic development in the area.

2. The US would oppose the move unless it gains something somewhere else in a grand bargain. It would have to be something very big.

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Denuclearized Korean peninsula is a very big deal.

Blackstone said:

What Korean national aggrandizement do you mean? The China-Korea border along the Yalu River has been incredibly stable for about 1,000 years, and there's no reason to believe a unified Korea wouldn't have the same border along the Yalu. A unified Korea would improve stability and intensify economic development in the area.


Denuclearized Korean peninsula is a very big deal.

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It is relatively more stable partly because during most of these 1000 years the concept of nation and nationalism was almost non-existent. Resistant stops almost as soon as the sovereign is toppled. Actually during the vietnam war China was more interested in an establisment similar to for the Koreas where NV and SV are divided along a demarcation zone. China did not have her way and a reunified vietnam immediately start vieing for hegemony in south east asia and challenging China which eventually led to the sino-vietnam war.

Maybe I am the pessimist here, but I really do not see any negotiated settlement to the Korean issue and certainly no reunification, simply through diplomatic means, not for the foreseeable future and certainly not unless the global balance of power were to change by a staggering degree. Possible therefore in the very long term (as defined by Dr Kissinger) but highly unlikely in a time scale any of us are likely to see.

If there is any change within the next generation I cannot see any way in which it can happen other than through a major conflict involving the big teams. This would mean Russia, China and the DPRK on one team, the US, Japan and the ROK on the other. It would finish when one side is utterly overrun and the forces of the external backers eliminated, totally from the peninsular and no longer any intent on trying to reinsert them.

I think way to much "commentary" tries to argue black is white and up is down, mainly to try and spin some yarn that the PRC and USA are secretly on the same team and are happy to work to an end that is miraculously in the US's favour.
Well I am sorry, but these are media fairy stories. The PRC and USA are rivals and they both have very different end games for the Korean peninsular. These differences are fundamental, diametrically opposed and otherwise mutually exclusive. Neither one will willingly surrender its objective in order to aid the success of that of its rival, unless it has absolutely no other choice, whatsoever.

Blackstone said:

What Korean national aggrandizement do you mean? The China-Korea border along the Yalu River has been incredibly stable for about 1,000 years, and there's no reason to believe a unified Korea wouldn't have the same border along the Yalu. A unified Korea would improve stability and intensify economic development in the area.

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Korean nationalists sees the origin of Korea in the 1st century kingdom of Goguryeo, which stretches throughout much of modern Chinese provinces of Liaoning and Jiling. History text books in both Koreas refer to the full extent of Kingdom of Goguryeo during 1st century as sacred soil of Korean people. This "sacred soil" extends 400kms north of Yalu

Blackstone said:

Denuclearized Korean peninsula is a very big deal.

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Denuclearized Korean peninsula is really no big deal for the US. The US would likely prefer a nuclearized Korea to losing Korea as a forward base as Chinese power increases.

SampanViking said:

Maybe I am the pessimist here, but I really do not see any negotiated settlement to the Korean issue and certainly no reunification, simply through diplomatic means, not for the foreseeable future and certainly not unless the global balance of power were to change by a staggering degree. Possible therefore in the very long term (as defined by Dr Kissinger) but highly unlikely in a time scale any of us are likely to see.

If there is any change within the next generation I cannot see any way in which it can happen other than through a major conflict involving the big teams. This would mean Russia, China and the DPRK on one team, the US, Japan and the ROK on the other. It would finish when one side is utterly overrun and the forces of the external backers eliminated, totally from the peninsular and no longer any intent on trying to reinsert them.

I think way to much "commentary" tries to argue black is white and up is down, mainly to try and spin some yarn that the PRC and USA are secretly on the same team and are happy to work to an end that is miraculously in the US's favour.
Well I am sorry, but these are media fairy stories. The PRC and USA are rivals and they both have very different end games for the Korean peninsular. These differences are fundamental, diametrically opposed and otherwise mutually exclusive. Neither one will willingly surrender its objective in order to aid the success of that of its rival, unless it has absolutely no other choice, whatsoever.

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I believe in the future the two Korean nation would be unified in certain areas such as more open border travel, economy, and trades. They will remain separate because the two ruling elites on each country are too divided on politics and too ingrained on the status quo to change anything.

Equation said:

I believe in the future the two Korean nation would be unified in certain areas such as more open border travel, economy, and trades. They will remain separate because the two ruling elites on each country are too divided on politics and too ingrained on the status quo to change anything.

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The disparity in wealth, economic strength, international standing, and the pool of national competency between the two Koreas is so staggering that it is inconceivable any remnant of North Korea could freely exist as reasonably independently state next to South Korea.

Only credible threat of great force can keep North Korea from being absorbed by the South. At the present this threat of force is largely supplied by the Kim regime. If the hold of Kim regime weakens, only China, not now but in maybe 10 years, could make the threat credible enough to keep North Korea from being gulped down by the South.

no_name said:

It is relatively more stable partly because during most of these 1000 years the concept of nation and nationalism was almost non-existent. Resistant stops almost as soon as the sovereign is toppled.

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Fully established/demarcated land boarders in East and SE Asia tend to be very stable. China, under the Song Dynasty signed a boarder treaty with a Vietnamese kingdom around 1088 that has lasted to this day. In fact, the Long Son Gate from a thousand years ago is still there, marking the boundary between China and Vietnam.

Actually during the vietnam war China was more interested in an establisment similar to for the Koreas where NV and SV are divided along a demarcation zone. China did not have her way and a reunified vietnam immediately start vieing for hegemony in south east asia and challenging China which eventually led to the sino-vietnam war.

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China had two main objectives in it's 1979 boarder war with Vietnam; show Vietnam the Soviets wouldn't come to their aid if they go to war with China, and force Vietnam to withdraw from Kampuchea. They achieved the former, but failed in the latter. It's really stretching it to call Vietnam's actions to protect itself against China as hegemonic. For most of Vietnam's long and checkered history with the Middle Kingdom, it was a case of a medium power trying to coexist with a hegemonic great power without being absorbed by it. Over time, Vietnam learned how best to handle China; when to give it a bloody nose, and when to bow and utter sweet nothings.

chuck731 said:

The disparity in wealth, economic strength, international standing, and the pool of national competency between the two Koreas is so staggering that it is inconceivable any remnant of North Korea could freely exist as reasonably independently state next to South Korea.

Only credible threat of great force can keep North Korea from being absorbed by the South. At the present this threat of force is largely supplied by the Kim regime. If the hold of Kim regime weakens, only China, not now but in maybe 10 years, could make the threat credible enough to keep North Korea from being gulped down by the South.

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What I meant is more industrial joint adventure like the Kaesŏng Industrial Region where South Korean manufacture know how and money opening up factories for North Korean workers. North Korea is going to need to open up at least just a little bit as far as economy to keep it's people fed.

chuck731 said:

Korean nationalists sees the origin of Korea in the 1st century kingdom of Goguryeo, which stretches throughout much of modern Chinese provinces of Liaoning and Jiling. History text books in both Koreas refer to the full extent of Kingdom of Goguryeo during 1st century as sacred soil of Korean people. This "sacred soil" extends 400kms north of Yalu

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China in the Han Dynasty extended into north part of Korea. However, the two countries agreed to boarders along the Yalu about a thousand years ago, and it's been stable ever since. Are you trying to tell us Korea will try and ditch that boarder if it's reunited?

Denuclearized Korean peninsula is really no big deal for the US. The US would likely prefer a nuclearized Korea to losing Korea as a forward base as Chinese power increases.

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The number 1 issue for the US vis-a-vis DPRK has been nuclear weapons. All the sanctions the UN imposed are about nuclear weapon development and proliferation. To believe denuclearized Korean peninsula isn't a big deal to the US is to believe the US doesn't care about Iranian nuclear weapon programs.