solarz
Brigadier
Yes, you're right, the key is a common adversary. Thanks for pointing that out.
It sounds like a re-militarized Japan might actually prove to be a good thing for China in the end.
PLA 39th Army Group maneuvering close to North Korean Border
- Thread starter usaf0314
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Yes, you're right, the key is a common adversary. Thanks for pointing that out.
It sounds like a re-militarized Japan might actually prove to be a good thing for China in the end.
1st choice: Throw North Korea to South Korea and the US in return for American renounciation of any interest in defending status quo in Taiwan, and public acceptance of ADIZ in East China Sea.
2nd choice: A pliant puppet government in North Korea, amenable to adopting chinese style economic reform and integration with chinese economy, but politically hardline enough to resist and suppress any inclination for national unification with South Korea.
So a little bit like a convetional version of the MAD in which you raise the stake high enough to prevent all side from doing rash things?
Sort of yes.
More it is to do with the way that Nations think. If a Status Quo has endured for a long time, it generally means that the parties involved in its maintenance are happy enough with it. The most important factor it has is that it is generally predictable and manageable. It is business as usual.
The danger with forcing change is that the situation becomes a matter of risk and chance, with the danger of unforeseen immediate outcomes and long term consequences. These situations are unpredictable and out of control.
To put it bluntly, once matters become unmanageable and unpredictable, Governments start to fear the worst as to the intentions of the competition and the logical response is to get your retaliation in first!
None of these scenarios are politically realistic.
Once the NK communist regime is gone, North Korea will be history. The NK people will want reunification with SK who would basically annex NK (like what happened in Germany. The unification was basically an annexation of East Germany by West Germany, for obvious reasons).
And why would the unified Korea want to ally with china? Japan is not an enemy of SK. Most of all, SK is a treaty ally of the US, and so is japan. The US is the true power between them, and always been since the end of WWII, which was 70 years ago, a lot of time already. Don’t get illusions. SK will not ally with china. If anything, china perceived as an enemy of SK, which has maintained the division of the Korean peninsula with its support of NK, which is the arch-enemy of SK.
Once this regime start to unravel, the only way of china to salvage what is left of its interests in the Korean peninsula, is to militarily occupy NK (support of someone of the ruling regime would help) and impose conditions for the Korean unification: US pullout of Korea and end of alliance with the US. Korea would be a neutral nation, if SK would accept that.
Of course, china would be on its way of becoming an international pariah in doing so.
South Korea? North Korea?
Kroko there is only one Korea and both halves blame the other half and their backers for preventing reunification.
South Korea supports the US because the US liberated the territory from the Japanese and installed its own establishment. North Korea looks to the Asian powers because Russia liberated that part of Korea and installed its own establishment.
If the Korean Civil War breaks out again and draws in the external backers again, this time it is fair to assume that the division would be ended and the country unified and that the unification would be shaped by and orientated in the favour of the victor. Previous establishments, Previous institutions and previous alliances would count for nothing as the pretty much everything that existed previously would be swept away for good and the new model of the state built from scratch.
Incidentally, this is the best reason I can think of that both the Korean factions are in favour of maintaining the status quo, as they probably realise that neither of them would be around at the end.
It also goes without saying that this is one campaign that I do see the Chinese being able to win and win convincingly and build the new Korea in its own image accordingly.
I don't think China is in a position to militarily impose an desired outcome on the Korean pennisula at the moment.
It might be better positioned to do so in 10 years.
But it is unclear if a generation of Koreans faced with a looming and threatening China in the here and now, while memeories of Japanese atrocities had faded after 80 years by then, would really side with China against Japan in such a scenario.
It might be better positioned to do so in 10 years.
But it is unclear if a generation of Koreans faced with a looming and threatening China in the here and now, while memeories of Japanese atrocities had faded after 80 years by then, would really side with China against Japan in such a scenario.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Not a bad take on ROK and DPRK reunification, Kroko. But an alternative scenario is for China to work with ROK on reunification, a-la France and Germany. Under that scenario, China would ease DPRK into the tender arms of ROK in exchange for a list of concessions, the biggest of which would be US troops off the Korean peninsula. In return, China agrees to send troops to help stabilize the northern Korea area, and then pull back north of the Yalu once ROK is ready to take over.
Blackstone
Brigadier
China isn't in a position to unilaterally impose a combined political, economic, and military outcome on the Korean peninsula at the moment, but China and ROK can, as long as the US doesn't oppose the move. In doesn't really matter if Japan supports it or not, but it would be easier if it doesn't oppose reunification.
Good point on unresolved Korea-Japan issues. It seems most Westerners just don't appreciate the depth of loathing Chinese and Koreans have for the Japanese, and vice versa.
1. ROK and China's perception of future of Korean Penninsula are unlikely to be compatible. Unified Korea would unboubtedly look to Ethnic Koreans in Northern China as next logical area of Korean national aggrandizement. Look at the population trends and economic growth rates. Within 30-50 years or so of unification, Korea would likely surpass Japan in population and economic strength. When polite diplamatiese is thrown away, it is unlikely any Chinese planner with foresight would really welcome these developments.
2. The US would oppose the move unless it gains something somewhere else in a grand bargain. It would have to be something very big.
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