Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

MwRYum said:

That's the problem with political sensitivity, which usually common sense and logic don't prevail. Despite the realities of things, if Beijing do any more than they're already doing (which is not much, by fair opinion) it'd backfire on its Taiwan front...see, people at Taiwan harbour the illusion that they got what it takes to muscle it with the Philippines, and in this scenario it's a golden opportunity to prove it to the world, especially to Beijing, such acts of sovereignty.

Anything even remotely resemble asking Beijing for assistance, will be no less of political suicide for the current administration. With the fact that in Taiwan every year is election year, you know the implications that'd follow.

To Taiwanese, accepting help from Beijing is like the old cliche of "owing the Mafia a favor", so my money says the Taiwan will do this solo, and fail....the Philippines knows that, thus their spokespersons looks so incredibly smug in front of cameras every single time.

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Agreed. That's why I'm thinking more on the line of moral support, instead of actually doing anything... At this point, verbal support is plenty enough and actually what the Taiwanese actually needs. More than anything else, they need to know that, in the eyes of the world, they are the ones holding the moral high ground.

Because of the mutual defense treaty?

By drastic over reach, I mean we literally just start driving into their territorial waters or attacking the PCG. aka, essentailly act of war.

RollingWave said:

Because of the mutual defense treaty?

By drastic over reach, I mean we literally just start driving into their territorial waters or attacking the PCG. aka, essentailly act of war.

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Taiwan has a mutual defense treaty with the PH? News to me.

If you're referring to the US, mutual defense doesn't mean vassalage.

How do you expect to protect your fishermen if you don't make the PH side understand that you mean business? The ROCN can't be in the area 24/7.

MwRYum said:

That's the problem with political sensitivity, which usually common sense and logic don't prevail. Despite the realities of things, if Beijing do any more than they're already doing (which is not much, by fair opinion) it'd backfire on its Taiwan front...see, people at Taiwan harbour the illusion that they got what it takes to muscle it with the Philippines, and in this scenario it's a golden opportunity to prove it to the world, especially to Beijing, such acts of sovereignty.

Anything even remotely resemble asking Beijing for assistance, will be no less of political suicide for the current administration. With the fact that in Taiwan every year is election year, you know the implications that'd follow.

To Taiwanese, accepting help from Beijing is like the old cliche of "owing the Mafia a favor", so my money says the Taiwan will do this solo, and fail....the Philippines knows that, thus their spokespersons looks so incredibly smug in front of cameras every single time.

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There is also the general problem that, despite being authoritarian, the PRC is still considerably swayed by citizen opinions, it can usually not act overwhelmingly against it, despite maintaining large controls over opinions online or otherwise, they can also only stir , and not outright turn, public opinions, not to mention even within the CCP, what that public opinion should be stir towards is hardly an always agreed upon thing. there are plenty inside the CCP who would probably think that the opportunity to break the situation wide open out weights whatever the ROC may or may not gain in international recognition.

Certainly everyone's only a friend when it suits them, every party realize this... at least... every party except the Philippines, whom if anyone harbors illusions of what other country is or is not, it would be them. Either with the outlandish assumption that the PRC would somehow reign Taiwan in, or that the US would unconditionally support them.

solarz said:

Taiwan has a mutual defense treaty with the PH? News to me.

If you're referring to the US, mutual defense doesn't mean vassalage.

How do you expect to protect your fishermen if you don't make the PH side understand that you mean business? The ROCN can't be in the area 24/7.

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Yes, except that how would you do it without essentially declaring war on the USA? which an attack on say.. a PCG boat would essentially be. due to the articles within the PH- US mutual defense treaty.

Our navy can be close enough to be almost 24/7 in those waters, certainly in the event of a chase a chopper or even a jet would be on the scene within time easily. but you have to first define the line here.

They could just press forwards with their maximum EEZ claim soon and draw a new line where they state they'll enforce, one that will be so humuliating to the Philippines (essentially preventing their fishing boat from leaving true territorial water. or close to that.) that they must concede into talks or challenge militarily (which they can't.) once we start arresting Philippine boats there instead of the other way around, it's gonna get ugly.

Setting a line, then attacking the PCG boats in there if the chance arrive, would at least give enough of a rational to explain away, the US probably don't want to get unneccesarily tangled into this, but they also need at least an excuse. And of course, if the perception of the PRC is on Taiwan's side becomes too obvious, that also won't help towards that end.

RollingWave said:

Yes, except that how would you do it without essentially declaring war on the USA? which an attack on say.. a PCG boat would essentially be. due to the articles within the PH- US mutual defense treaty.

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There are limitations to a defense treaty. In the current case, the attack was initiated by the Philippines. Is it really defense if the Philippines is the aggressor?

Btw, can anyone clarify where the incident took place? I've seen Bashi Channel and Balintang Channel. Two different places.

RollingWave said:

Yes, except that how would you do it without essentially declaring war on the USA? which an attack on say.. a PCG boat would essentially be. due to the articles within the PH- US mutual defense treaty.

Our navy can be close enough to be almost 24/7 in those waters, certainly in the event of a chase a chopper or even a jet would be on the scene within time easily. but you have to first define the line here.

They could just press forwards with their maximum EEZ claim soon and draw a new line where they state they'll enforce, one that will be so humuliating to the Philippines (essentially preventing their fishing boat from leaving true territorial water. or close to that.) that they must concede into talks or challenge militarily (which they can't.) once we start arresting Philippine boats there instead of the other way around, it's gonna get ugly.

Setting a line, then attacking the PCG boats in there if the chance arrive, would at least give enough of a rational to explain away, the US probably don't want to get unneccesarily tangled into this, but they also need at least an excuse. And of course, if the perception of the PRC is on Taiwan's side becomes too obvious, that also won't help towards that end.

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The PRC Maritime Surveillance ships have no problem chasing off PCG ships from the Scarborough Shoals. No war has erupted despite repeated US reassurance that they would "defend" PH.

First, you are underestimating the vastness of open sea. Even if the entire ROCN patrolled the area, they would not be able to cover every sector. An attack occurs in a matter of minutes, while help is at least hours away.

Second, how do you expect to enforce a territorial claim if you are not willing to back it up with force? You're afraid that arresting PH boats will make things turn ugly. Do you think the PH thought about that when they opened fire on a TW fisherman?

No offense, but you are really sounding like a 秀才 here, trying to reason with bandits. We all know how that proverb goes.

Finally, I don't think there is any doubt which side the PRC is on in this matter.

Player 0 said:

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Found a blog that shows that HKers admire Ma's firm stance and are disgusted by Hu Jintao's lackluster response to the hostage crisis.

This should be an important lesson, Xi has a strong military and legal background, so hopefully he knows how to be both assertive and crafty at the same time.

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HKers are sending mixed messages then. Maybe someone like airsuperiority can clarify but I thought HKers shunned any Mainland involvement. They certainly didn't like anyone from Beijing attending any of the memorials.

AssassinsMace said:

HKers are sending mixed messages then. Maybe someone like airsuperiority can clarify but I thought HKers shunned any Mainland involvement. They certainly didn't like anyone from Beijing attending any of the memorials.

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Thanks Assassins. Let me try my best and see what I can provide to you guys with.

HK's attitudes towards China during the Hostage Incident

I would say that those posts does reflect HK's disappointment in China. It may not be definitely what's on everyone's minds, but it's probably safe to say it's a majority or widely popular sentiment.

HK is brought up/raised by the West, so we possess some elements of rationality(hence our detest of "blind-patriotism").
While HK certain doesn't like Chinese involvement in most of HK's affairs, we knew certainly that for things such as these where HK can only act in a limited manner due to its political stature, we will know which party can help us, and also will look to China to stand up for us. It's quite like how no matter you hate your dad, you would expect your dad to know how to defend family honor when it comes to be his time for his responsibilities. In other words, you maintain the family value or sentiments.

As for people not liking Beijing to attend the memorials, I think it's a combination of some people being pure stupid and paranoid, thinking Beijing is trying to score PR points(because that time China was actively trying really hard to attract HK people to endorse Beijing by arranging the taikonaut to HK and these "soft-power" influences to win the HK public), and also the possible alternative of that Beijing didn't do sh!t for us and suddenly showed up to "pay respects".

AssassinsMace said:

HKers are sending mixed messages then. Maybe someone like airsuperiority can clarify but I thought HKers shunned any Mainland involvement. They certainly didn't like anyone from Beijing attending any of the memorials.

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If that sounds like split personality disorder well that's what it really is. Thanks to the mainstream media's anti-Beijing overtone, many in HK lost sight to the reality that HK can only do so much in the inter-state level of affairs. Naturally getting Beijing's help is, as the cliche goes, "owe a favor to the Mafia" but that's the price you got to pay. Of course, you can decline Beijing's offer but the price will be watching the Philippine government spokespersons parade their smug face in front of cameras.

Many of those self-styled democrats chants "make no deal with the devil" all the time, but in reality you don't have that kind of luxury. Yet, most people in HK are just too idiotic to realise such harsh reality.