Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

If the video surveillance prove their point, and that the story of Taiwanese fishing boat being fishing in the wrong place is not an implausible one, why the hell would they not release it if it actually backs up their story.

Forgive me if I find the credibility of Philippine investigations in general to be very low, the Taiwanese one showed a clear ballistic analysis that showed most of the shots coming from a 7-8 O'clock angel from the rear, if your shooting to stop the ramming, that should be outright impossible. if your shooting to chase, then we already have some problem.

Also, while I've never piloted a speed boat, I have experience enough sailing other vassals to find the possibility of the need to backup to avoid a collision, and succeeding, to be rather low. especially assuming that they were coming close enough to investigate the ship.

Also, I'm not sure what sort of country would use the term "like an action movie" in any official document.

It's very clear that the Philippines don't even bother to put effort in it, the first evidence is their spokespersons just have to flaunt their smug face at the cameras again and again.

solarz said:

Mainland media should not be praising Ma. They should be pointing out these obvious flaws.

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That's a Chinese way of indirectly critizing their own government for not doing enough, though the definition of "doing more" might now means spilling blood and have some head on the pike to show for the effort.

Still, it's true that "Mr. Teflon" has no choice but to put up a brave face, though in reality the only way to get the Philippines have their tails between their legs, put away their smug faces and do something for real is...you guess it, Uncle Sam whip them six inch into their lives.

MwRYum said:

It's very clear that the Philippines don't even bother to put effort in it, the first evidence is their spokespersons just have to flaunt their smug face at the cameras again and again.

That's a Chinese way of indirectly critizing their own government for not doing enough, though the definition of "doing more" might now means spilling blood and have some head on the pike to show for the effort.

Still, it's true that "Mr. Teflon" has no choice but to put up a brave face, though in reality the only way to get the Philippines have their tails between their legs, put away their smug faces and do something for real is...you guess it, Uncle Sam whip them six inch into their lives.

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There is nothing mainland China can, or should, do right now. The Xi gov't is smart to keep themselves to verbal support. Any mainlander who thinks their gov't isn't doing enough is being foolish.

As for Ma, he has plenty of options for making PH back down. He just doesn't seem to want to use them. Look at the actions of PRC in Scarborough Shoals. Civilian law enforcement vessels stood down a PH warship, and now not even the PCG dares to go to that area.

solarz said:

There is nothing mainland China can, or should, do right now. The Xi gov't is smart to keep themselves to verbal support. Any mainlander who thinks their gov't isn't doing enough is being foolish.

As for Ma, he has plenty of options for making PH back down. He just doesn't seem to want to use them. Look at the actions of PRC in Scarborough Shoals. Civilian law enforcement vessels stood down a PH warship, and now not even the PCG dares to go to that area.

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Unarmed civilian law enforcement vessels to boot.

I think where Taiwan has made a mistake is in setting all its cards on the table right from the start. Instead of listing all the things it will do, it should have listed them as the first things Taiwan will do, while reserving the right to take further action if the Philippines' reponse is deemed unacceptable. Then, Taiwan could have followed the gradual escalation route and steadily increased the pressure on the Philipines over time.

Another important factor to consider was the poorly judged and worse timed comment by that American official praising the lacklustre Philipines response thus far. That apparent showing of support from the US to the Philippines really cut Taiwan's legs out under them, and there was a marked change in the attitude and tune of the Philippines after that comment compared to before it was made.

The Philippines, rightly or wrongly, took that comment as American approval of their handling of the situation and also America warning Taiwan off. So the Philippones thought they had done enough, and since then you can detect a noticeable change of tune from the Philippines with them back tracking on the joint investigation, doing Japanese style haggling over the apology and the victims family will now probably not see a penny from the Philippines for compensation. At this point, I fully expect the Philippines own investigation to be a blatant white wash.

All of that is hardening public opinion in Taiwan and forcing Ma to act tougher. But if the Philippines don't take the hint and keep up the smug diplomatic bird flipping at Taiwan, it might force Taiwan to fire a shot across their bow (with a real possibility of that being more that metaphorically) to give the Philippines a cold dose of reality.

What China should do now is condemn the American comments and stance as irresponsible and premature and thus highlight the spoiler role that America is now playing against Taiwan. At the same time, China should express displeasure at the attitude of the Philippines and maybe go as far as offering logistics support to Taiwan by offering to send an UNREP ship to refuel and resupply the Taiwanese naval and coast guard ships. That will do more than anything to show ordinary people in Taiwan that blood is thicker than water. America only supports Taiwan because it serves America's interest, and that support is wholly dependent on Taiwan serving America's interest and will waver and maybe even disappear as soon as supporting Taiwan no longer servers America's best interests.

I think by international diplomatic standards, this has already unfolded very rapidly, I'm not sure what Ma can do so far that isn't into the category of drastic overreach (which doesn't mean he wouldn't go there in the coming weeks.)

The ROC need to keep the US's mouth shut by staying within the side of the rational here. if that wasn't a factor I'd say bombs would already be dropping with the sort of crap PH is pulling.

Preux said:

Right. One blogger with a chip the size of Texas on his shoulder, quoting that rabidly pro-Chinese rag Apple Daily and a bunch of facebook quotes represent HKers now. Why don't we leave the political commentary out of this thread?

Besides which, the situations aren't analogous. The 2010 incident was caused by the actions of a criminal and subsequent incompetent government response, this one was the result of direct government action. This is a non-trivial difference under the common law system, one is a tort of negligence or perhaps criminal negligence, the other is manslaughter or worse.

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While situations aren't analogous and the blogger may be voicing on the extreme end, there is basis for some grumbling as Aquino didn't handle that crisis very well and Hu was always a stiff who didn't seize the opportunity to strengthen China/HK relations.

solarz said:

Mainland media should not be praising Ma. They should be pointing out these obvious flaws.

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I think the Mainland media is doing about the right amount. I noticed with this recent crisis, there's the usual friction between China and Taiwan but both sides seem to have demonstrated a higher level of sophistication when addressing either side this time. Some may feel the Mainland media is simply indirectly criticizing its own govt but the praise also acts as a means of warming up to Taiwan, if not the Taiwanese govt, at least the populace. The Philippines dragging on this issue will in itself point out any flaws the Ma administration has with their actions. No need for the Mainland media to do this and end up being the "bad guy", souring the China-Taiwan angle.

RollingWave said:

Forgive me if I find the credibility of Philippine investigations in general to be very low, the Taiwanese one showed a clear ballistic analysis that showed most of the shots coming from a 7-8 O'clock angel from the rear, if your shooting to stop the ramming, that should be outright impossible. if your shooting to chase, then we already have some problem.

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I would entertain the idea that supposedly the fishing boat almost had a collision with the PCG vessel when it backed up and then moved forward. But that would mean the PCG crew fired at the bow of the fishing boat moving forward without orders since that article claims the PCG vessel only patiently fired warning shots, then pursued, then ultimately gave order to fire at engine which would mean at this point they are behind the fishing boat. So that article eliminates this possibility and ultimately contradicts the fact that the bow is shot up.

plawolf said:

What China should do now is condemn the American comments and stance as irresponsible and premature and thus highlight the spoiler role that America is now playing against Taiwan. At the same time, China should express displeasure at the attitude of the Philippines and maybe go as far as offering logistics support to Taiwan by offering to send an UNREP ship to refuel and resupply the Taiwanese naval and coast guard ships. That will do more than anything to show ordinary people in Taiwan that blood is thicker than water. America only supports Taiwan because it serves America's interest, and that support is wholly dependent on Taiwan serving America's interest and will waver and maybe even disappear as soon as supporting Taiwan no longer servers America's best interests.

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China shouldn't condemn the US at this point. More to lose than gain by further pulling the US into this mess. As of now, Taiwan's has the momentum. If China wants to show solidarity, just initiate some economic measure.

RollingWave said:

I think by international diplomatic standards, this has already unfolded very rapidly, I'm not sure what Ma can do so far that isn't into the category of drastic overreach (which doesn't mean he wouldn't go there in the coming weeks.)

The ROC need to keep the US's mouth shut by staying within the side of the rational here. if that wasn't a factor I'd say bombs would already be dropping with the sort of crap PH is pulling.

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See, that is exactly the kind of problematic thinking we're talking about.

Why would it be a "drastic overreach" to do what I described above? Why does the ROC need to worry about what the US says?

plawolf said:

What China should do now is condemn the American comments and stance as irresponsible and premature and thus highlight the spoiler role that America is now playing against Taiwan. At the same time, China should express displeasure at the attitude of the Philippines and maybe go as far as offering logistics support to Taiwan by offering to send an UNREP ship to refuel and resupply the Taiwanese naval and coast guard ships. That will do more than anything to show ordinary people in Taiwan that blood is thicker than water. America only supports Taiwan because it serves America's interest, and that support is wholly dependent on Taiwan serving America's interest and will waver and maybe even disappear as soon as supporting Taiwan no longer servers America's best interests.

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Yeah, I also think China should cease this opportunity to show Taiwan who is their true friend/family. What that American diplomat said might have cost way more than anyone had intended. If the US has been seen as sacrificing the interests of Taiwan even when they don't have to do anything, actually spilling blood for Taiwan might be a tall order... Those in Taiwan who still think the US will shed blood for them might have to think twice...

vesicles said:

Yeah, I also think China should cease this opportunity to show Taiwan who is their true friend/family. What that American diplomat said might have cost way more than anyone had intended. If the US has been seen as sacrificing the interests of Taiwan even when they don't have to do anything, actually spilling blood for Taiwan might be a tall order... Those in Taiwan who still think the US will shed blood for them might have to think twice...

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That's the problem with political sensitivity, which usually common sense and logic don't prevail. Despite the realities of things, if Beijing do any more than they're already doing (which is not much, by fair opinion) it'd backfire on its Taiwan front...see, people at Taiwan harbour the illusion that they got what it takes to muscle it with the Philippines, and in this scenario it's a golden opportunity to prove it to the world, especially to Beijing, such acts of sovereignty.

Anything even remotely resemble asking Beijing for assistance, will be no less of political suicide for the current administration. With the fact that in Taiwan every year is election year, you know the implications that'd follow.

To Taiwanese, accepting help from Beijing is like the old cliche of "owing the Mafia a favor", so my money says the Taiwan will do this solo, and fail....the Philippines knows that, thus their spokespersons looks so incredibly smug in front of cameras every single time.

plawolf said:

What China should do now is condemn the American comments and stance as irresponsible and premature and thus highlight the spoiler role that America is now playing against Taiwan.

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That would be the worse thing the PRC could do. So far things are proceeding fine, and the PRC's position is improving. Doing what is proposed above would only inflame the situation and itroduce a not even thinly veiled attempt to take advantage of the situation that would not play out well for the PRC IMHO.

The comment by the US Ambassador was clearly taken out of context and trumped up by the Philipine outlet. The Ambassador mentioned that what the Philipines had initially said, that they regretted the incident and were willing to look at a investigation by both countries was good. And, at the time, it was.

To trump that up into some kind of irresponsible, premature statement would itself be premature and irresponsible. To say that the US is playing a spoiler against Tawan is simply not accurate, and would be seen for what it is, a not even thinly veiled attempt to take advantage of the situation, which, IMHO, would likely fail in the region, and with the Taiwan people as well.

The best thing China can do it to keep doing what they are doing. Sitting back and letting this unfold because it is improving their stance as it is, without appearing to take advantage of things.

The US has made it clear it is not taking sides, and outside of that comment, has not made any moves. In fact, that comment cannot be construed as, and was not stated as an official US position. It was an off-the-cuff comment by the Ambassador therer in the Philipines.

I believe Taiwan is going to take care of business here...and they are going to do so responsibly and very methodically. in the mean time, they are letting the Philipines self-destruct and look the fool over this. Taiwan is going to come out gaining, not only in its dealing with other nations in the Region, but in its territorial claims with the Philipines...and all of that is good for the mainland.

As to the US only supporting Taiwan interests when it is in the US interests to do so...the same could be said for the mainland. Let anyone in Taiwan in any official capacity indicate that the island, for all intents and purposes is operating autonomously as an indpendent nation and see how quicly the mainland changes its tune and decides that the blood is not thicker than the water.

Of course the US supports what it feels is in its own interests...and so does the mainland. Nothing suprising there. For that matter...so does Taiwan.