It seems that the attack on CH-53 has left 50 casualties on the Israeli side
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is toothless as there is no enforcement. The Trump administration even introduced sanctions against ICC. The reason why Russian politicans are wanted by ICC is because the USA, UK and EU tell ICC what to do. The ICC is and have always been highly politicized but the little independence is lost thank´s to Western countries. Israel is backed by the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union. Thus Israel can do what it please including genocide on Palestinians. Israel has mobilized 360,000 soldiers - meaning their is a significant chance that IDF will enter Gaza. What I can read the Western countries there is a massive support among the liberal elites for ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Of course they will not frame it like that. France even ban pro-Palestinian demonstrations.
I think it´s clear that the liberal elites in Western countries is becoming political extremists. This growing liberal extremism in Western countries is something China and Russia will have to deal with. Of course I wonder how far Israel will go in Gaza and if they take it all the way to genocide but their are indications of this. We will not be allowed to read about this in the Western media. Politically, this will ruin Israel´s reputation across the Middle East and no doubt in the Islamic world. Israel has always been paria but Israel and Western countries have always been able to buy political leaders in Muslim-majority countries. This will end and Israel will become very isolated.
But than again - Israel may not ethnically cleanse Gaza. We will have to see.
It reminds me of a Polish joke from Cold War times:
A Jew chases an Arab through the desert and every now and then stops to shoot at him from a rifle. Every now and then the Arab turns around and shoots back at the Jew with his rifle. After a while the Jew notices that the Arab stopped shooting back.
"Hey Arab!" he shouts "Why you don't shoot, huh?"
The Arab shakes the rifle angrily in the air. "No bullets!"
"Thank you lord for this opportunity." thinks the Jew.
"Hey Arab!" he shouts at him "No bullets?"
The Arab shakes his head in resignation.
"Ha!" shouts the Jew triumphantly "Wanna buy some?"
Every now and then the whole thing looks to me just like that joke. But returning to serious matters:
I made a visual approximation of how long it took to capture Raqqa and Mosul. Every stage is described by time elapsed in days since beginning of operation.
In Raqqa the last section surrendered 17 days later on day +119.
In Mosul first the eastern side was captured in 90 days then after 90 days the operation from the west began and took 120 days until last elements were eliminated.
In the case of Mosul the operation was split into two phases but if hypothetically it was conducted simultaneously it seems to require the same approximate amount of time as in Raqqa - 120 days/4 months. I don't know how much of it is coincidence and how much the effect of scaling of very similar operations - besieging a city across large river with proportionally similar forces on both sides.
Both Raqqa and Mosul operations had support from the air provided primarily by US as well as support in planning and information gathering and artillery. The primary fighting force was a light infantry force of SDF and Perhmerga/Iraq which approximately was on the same level of skill and experience as IDF reservists.
Losses in Mosul (1,7m city size) were ~1000 KIA and ~4000-5000 WIA per force balance of ~100k vs ~10k. The defenders lost apparently the entire force.
Losses in Raqqa (0,5m city size) were ~700 KIA and unknown WIA per force balance of ~40k total and ~15k in the city vs. 3-5k. The defenders lost ~1200 KIA and ~700 captured.
I can't tell how much these operations will be indicative of how battle of Gaza would go but 90-120 days is a long time even if the expected losses for IDF are ~1k KIA and ~4k WIA. If the operation is to be sped up it will probably take higher losses. Time is a factor because as ground opration progresses the Shia militias from Iraq ,Syria and possibly volunteers from Yemen will come to the northern front where they will keep pressuring into Israel allowing Hezbollah to remain on the defensive.
There is no difference where it matters:
- in reducing motivation for potential anti-Israel recruits
- in reducing support for fighting Israel among Arab/Muslim population
This force won't come from the west because Europe can't fight and doesn't want to fight this war, and US can't fight it even if it wanted to. Israel is alone in this apart from material and financial support which both are limited considering ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and potential other fronts which will open as soon as this war isn't resolved decisively and quickly.
Just think in terms of China's strategy:
For China to win WestPac/Taiwan without fighting (which is ideal) US needs to spread itself along as many fronts as possible to trigger withdrawal or collapse of power projection. This means that as soon as Israel fails to resolve this quickly there is a high chance of another conflict starting next year in Latin America. I say Latin America because this would be my pick. Any conflict in Asia is too close to China's own sphere of influence where stability is prioritised and vs America exhausting strategic depth is as important as exhausting volume of resources committed because strategic depth includes time to a much greater extent. With support provided in Europe, Middle East and Latin America the most important asset US commands - logistical capability - is stretched to maximum. The same fleet of ships and aircraft can't operate as efficiently at two directions as it can at one (Europe and ME is serviced from Europe). And unlike South America or Europe Israel needs the continuing logistical lifeline.
This is why Israel must resolve Gaza as quickly as possible and focus on the north to neutralise Hezbollah and allies. A significant problem is West Bank where some type of unrest will happen. Ben Gvir was seen meeting with settlers and bringing weapons so he may want to play that option even for himself.
Let's never forget that people like him or Netanyahu do not think in rational pro-social terms. It's characteristic of politicians in general, but their kind in particular. They are likely high both on the narcissistic and psychopathic spectrum so their decisions are detached from actual reality. Narcissistic psychopaths don't really think - they react, and very impulsively being more like big children than agitated adults. Netanyahu is more competent and more machiavellian (these three traits form the so called "dark triad") and while selfishly he calculates skillfully - a "competent" type of brinkmanship. Ben Gvir and Smotrich are more radical, have no such experience as Bibi and are cornered - since they are widely blamed for the current crisis (and rightly so) - so to them more violence may be the only solution they see. That personality doesn't kno how to cmpromise, take a loss or adjust. Only knows how to push back. Very much like Ukrainian nationalists in 2014 who were pushing for conflict in the East thinking that this would cause greater division in society and give them more power at next political settlement and instead they ended up losing almost everything in 2014 and 2015 elections. This is why such leadership so often "miscalcuates". It fails because the world in their head where their plans work is not the same as the one we live in.
Israel has three fronts: Gaza, West Bank and Golan/South Lebanon. West Bank is the key.
In the West Bank the settler population (500k) can provide some buffer against 3m Palestinians since they are highly motivated and ideological. The settlements are also from the start designed to form a series of defensive forts.
Map - 4000x 2800 pixels:
The line along Jordan river and between Jerusalem, Jericho and the Dead Sea locks WB in an Israeli siege which may last a long time if there is an uprising. It is very much a Warsaw Ghetto type situation while Gaza is like the Warsaw Uprising. Both ended very badly for the defenders.
The main problem for Israel is that while the emotional state caused by Hamas' attack will gradually dwindle there will be psychological burden of fighting the Palestinians in other areas that will wear down the population over time - especially that there will be backlash from the Israeli Arab population (20%) while the Arab/Muslim world can provide potentially tens of thousands of volunteers. Just Iraq (39m),Yemen (26m) and Syria (15m) provide 80m pool from which 0,1% is 80k and 0,5% is 400k.
And this is where I need to come back to the Religious Zionists like Ben Gvir - for them exacerbating the problem may be a necessary step not only to preserving power but also to achieving what they want - total expulsion of non-Jewish population. Because if they don't do it, then any temporary measure is going to put Israel in exactly the same position as in the 70s. From a purely strategic perspective Israel needs to secure its borders physically and it can't do it unless it defends on a single front.
Map from 2014:
This makes the entire situation extremely unfortunate but it really has no solution because ultimately Israel isn't about Israel but about Suez. Always was, always will be. If Israel wasn't there the entire region would naturally fall under Egyptian, Iranian and Turkish control.
Egypt would secure Israel. Iran would take over Iraq and Turkey would take over Syria and we'd be back in the bronze age except that Egypt would be the problem for all western powers trying to gain advantage across Suez which would be securely under Egyptian control. It would likely require help from one of the other powers to secure access and that would be too risky considering the leverage they would gain. And that's why Israel is there. Just like in the times of Cyrus I all the ideological and ethnic trickery is to get the dirty work done.
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I think they plan of Netanyahu and others may be to annex Gaza once for all and keep the Palestinian under permanent military occupation.
The ICC has always been and will be manipulated, that is why we see few convictions against crimes, whether from Israel, the US or even Russia.... International Law on paper is very good, but in International Relations and the power and strength. Nobody is going to judge the US or Israel, nor will they judge Russia, China or North Korea no matter how much Western campaign they carry out and threats from Western countries and their institutions, because they have power and nuclear weapons. In the worst case, lunch departures are negotiated
Israel, like Russia, uses mediocre and pathetic excuses to invade territories, in the Israeli case it is not even a religious issue as they want to make it out to be, we already see how the Zionists are attacking the Jews themselves who do not agree with the massacres in Gaza
and their Western friends do the same in their countries... all to wash the face of these unfortunates who govern Israel
At the end of the day, countries aligned with the West turn a blind eye to not condemn these events, just as the allies of Russia do not condemn their criminal actions.... it is about power and sides, it has never been anything of real justice these issues
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If real justice isn't an issue and it is all about power and sides, then ICC shouldn't exist in the first place. EU should stop preaching moral high ground and grandstanding everyday. If the West decided to turn a blind eye on war crimes, then they should shut up and stop lecturing the world about human rights.
I have been lectured and preached about war crimes committed by Russia for over a year in this forum but now all of sudden it isn't important anymore. So at the end of the day, it is all about powers and sides.
Remember this, if the world order only comes down to power and sides, then Russia did nothing wrong. If it is about justice and rights, then why Israel is given a free pass.
Russia, China and North Korea have all been judged and condemned. Western powers just can't invade these countries because of nuclear weapons. Russia got sanctioned, assets confiscated, ostracized. North Korea is totally isolated from international community. China got sanctioned and ganged up.
I have been lectured and preached about war crimes committed by Russia for over a year in this forum but now all of sudden it isn't important anymore. So at the end of the day, it is all about powers and sides.
Remember this, if the world order only comes down to power and sides, then Russia did nothing wrong. If it is about justice and rights, then why Israel is given a free pass.
Russia, China and North Korea have all been judged and condemned. Western powers just can't invade these countries because of nuclear weapons. Russia got sanctioned, assets confiscated, ostracized. North Korea is totally isolated from international community. China got sanctioned and ganged up.
I think the plan might be to push the Palestinians in Gaza into an even smaller area in the south at the border with Egypt. That would keep Jewish towns in the south safe and create more distance between Ashkelon and Hamas. Gaza city would remain in ruins. If it goes well for the Israelis, they might launch a war of aggression against the Lebanese people after
You're talking about countries where the ICC doesn't even have jurisdiction... Just like in Israel... so beyond public statements, the ICC doesn't do much else.
Putin has been charged and can't go to South Africa and many other countries that are ICC members. If Putin can be charged, why Israelis and Americans didn't get charged for war crimes. ICC doesn't even pretend to be impartial. ICC is a Western bitch. Just take a look below. What a joke?
ICC can and can't enforce its ruling is one thing. But ICC not being impartial is an issue. ICC didn't perform its duty is an issue. ICC being the Western bitch is an issue. If ICC's existence is just being a tool for Western powers, then it shouldn't have existed in the first place.
Sounds like a "GO" for the Final Solution.