Lethe
Captain
The testing statistics provided on the World Aquatics are quite limited but nonetheless illuminating. Specifically, it would appear that testing rates for Chinese swimmers increased dramatically between 2022 and 2023, with elevated rates continuing into 2024.
The TMZ 23 episode occurred in early 2021 and the investigatory process (CHINADA, WADA, World Aquatics) was concluded by mid-year. If that episode were directly responsible for recent elevated testing rates, one would expect that to occur from 2022 rather than 2023, though it may be that test distribution schedules are determined further in advance.
But not everyone knew about the TMZ 23 case in 2021. From WADA's April 2024 on the case:
I would speculate that, as news about the TMZ 23 case began to spread beyond CHINADA/WADA/World Aquatics, increased scrutiny and pressure was applied to those organs that has manifested in the elevated testing rates of Chinese swimmers from 2023 to the present day.
It seems reasonable that the TMZ 23 case would lead to some increased near-term surveillance of Chinese swimmers. While environmental contamination was the most likely explanation for those results, the source and precise mechanism of contamination was never identified. Legitimate testing practices are about risk assessment, and the TMZ 23 episode would seem sufficient to assign an elevated risk profile to China's swimming cohort. However, the dramatically increased rates of testing that have been reported would seem to exceed what is justified by that episode and may well reflect political considerations also, and of course an elevated risk profile does not justify unusually intrusive or disruptive patterns of testing. If recent elevated testing rates of Chinese swimmer are connected directly or indirectly to the TMZ 23 case, then it follows that such elevated surveillance should be temporary in nature and should, in the absence of further unusual episodes, return over time to levels comparable with other nations.
In the short-term, the ITA's Test Distribution Plan for the Paris Olympics is accessible to at least WADA and the IOC. One would assume that China's own coordinating authorities also at least have records of all tests administered to Chinese athletes and the capacity to make enquiries and representations to the relevant international organs to protect their interests.
The TMZ 23 episode occurred in early 2021 and the investigatory process (CHINADA, WADA, World Aquatics) was concluded by mid-year. If that episode were directly responsible for recent elevated testing rates, one would expect that to occur from 2022 rather than 2023, though it may be that test distribution schedules are determined further in advance.
But not everyone knew about the TMZ 23 case in 2021. From WADA's April 2024 on the case:
I would speculate that, as news about the TMZ 23 case began to spread beyond CHINADA/WADA/World Aquatics, increased scrutiny and pressure was applied to those organs that has manifested in the elevated testing rates of Chinese swimmers from 2023 to the present day.
It seems reasonable that the TMZ 23 case would lead to some increased near-term surveillance of Chinese swimmers. While environmental contamination was the most likely explanation for those results, the source and precise mechanism of contamination was never identified. Legitimate testing practices are about risk assessment, and the TMZ 23 episode would seem sufficient to assign an elevated risk profile to China's swimming cohort. However, the dramatically increased rates of testing that have been reported would seem to exceed what is justified by that episode and may well reflect political considerations also, and of course an elevated risk profile does not justify unusually intrusive or disruptive patterns of testing. If recent elevated testing rates of Chinese swimmer are connected directly or indirectly to the TMZ 23 case, then it follows that such elevated surveillance should be temporary in nature and should, in the absence of further unusual episodes, return over time to levels comparable with other nations.
In the short-term, the ITA's Test Distribution Plan for the Paris Olympics is accessible to at least WADA and the IOC. One would assume that China's own coordinating authorities also at least have records of all tests administered to Chinese athletes and the capacity to make enquiries and representations to the relevant international organs to protect their interests.
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