Number of Ships PLAN must have to be supreme

Nethappy said:

hmm, I never knew the USN carrier can launch Tomahawks and according to my knowledge non of the aircraft operation on the carrier can launch Tomahawks.

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Lol. Carriers can't launch em', nor can the aircraft they operate. You've got to re-read my statement. Here it is:

Sea Dog said:

Each carrier can deliver the equivalent of 900-1000 Tomahawks daily for 2 weeks straight with 24 hour sorties.

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You see. I said "THE EQUIVALENT". That means an amount that equals the same amount of firepower if you launched 900-1000 Tomahawks. That doesn't mean they launch them.

And yes, the US will have around 4500-5000 Tomahawks total in their inventory. From what I understand they still have over 2,000 total of each block currently in inventory with TacTom's in production as we speak. I would estimate that there are between 450-700 out in active service in the Pacific Ocean as we speak. That would be plenty.

Edited to add: I just want to point out that PLAN does have good abilities. I'm not trying to minimize them. I just think that they're being grossly overestimated in their overall capabilities. This is why I think the USN/PLAN comparisons will reflect it. They are in their infancy in building a blue-water navy. As a matter of fact, they've barely begun. This type of stuff takes a long time to build. It ain't that easy. And they're not even close to being ready to confront a navy like USN. In time, their abilities will grow.

bdpopeye said:

Those USN LA class subs are always at sea. USN ships in general spend as more time at sea in a three month period as many other nations ships do in an entire year. The crews are trained and know what they are doing. That's a fact.

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Well said popeye. Most people tend to ignore the training and experience. Not to mention the sonar suite LA SSN's use.

SwimmerXC

I wouldn't put too much faith into the Yuan/Kilo, especially in the hands of an un trained crew... how many years has the PLAN operated Yuan, 2-3 max. And the Kilo... let just say they messed up pretty bad by pratically destorying the batteries on it..

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Yuan would not be operational soon, so I agreed it is not much a threat now. But Kilo has been in the PLAN for over ten years, they did messed up big time when they first received it. But nowadays I would say Kilo will be a seriously threat to any other navy in the world, of course kilo still are inferior toward some of the modern subs.

Pope eye

Miggy..Swimmerxc is right on the money. And you know he is a backer of the PLA forces....

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Swemmerxc is not the backer of PLA forces, but I am . I will strongly disagree with some of your opinions, let just say LA subs are not invisible. A quiet diesel subs are as much as a threat as a nuclear subs, eventhrough SSN could put in more tech on board. It does not necessary mean that diesel subs couldn't take out a far more powerful SSN subs.

isthvan

As for Yuan’s and Kilos I still believe that 2-3 improved LA SSN can take them out…
As swimmerXC and Popeye seed LA have better trained crews, better sonar’s and years of experience in playing games with Russian subs…

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I would say otherwise, 2-3 improved LA ssn would be cake walk for chinese subs. China do have 20mings 12song 12kilos 2-3yuan, they are not going to sit around and let 2-3 LA ssn take them out one by one.

Migleader

I wouldnt, but thats just my opinion. Unlike skyhawk2005, i will accept the proffesional opinions of Popeye and istvan as truth, and debate this no longer.

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Where are your spirit, buddy. Just because they were proffesional, does not mean they are always right. If this forum only consider the proffesional opinion as a facts, there would no need for us being here.

Most people tend to ignore the training and experience. Not to mention the sonar suite LA SSN's use.

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But the problem is we don't know how much training chinese subs conduct, so the arguement is void. US do have more experience of course.

Here is a relevant excerpt from the article I linked to earlier.

另一方面，最近几次的美军模拟演习结果都让美方感到非常不安。在一次演习中，美军原计划用Ｆ—22和“联合攻击”战斗机等最先进的隐形战机夜袭解放军机场和导弹阵地，派航母战斗群打击中国大陆沿海目标，美国陆军在五天之内将一个师的兵力运上前线，海军陆战队搭乘可以垂直起降的Ｖ—22旋翼飞机深入敌后。但在演习的过程中，美军三艘航空母舰在解放军反舰导弹的威胁下，不得不远离海岸线，舰上全部250架战机毫无用武之地。美军能用得上的只有Ｂ—2隐形轰炸机和巡航导弹，但它们对于战争的胜负难以起到决定性作用。

　　按照惯例，美军的台海危机模拟演习由美太平洋司令部作战模拟中心或者国防大学完成。在演习前，美军一方面利用间谍卫星、侦察机、间谍船搜集中国大陆军队在台湾海峡附近的通讯信号、战机转场情况、导弹阵地的具体位置；另一方面，要求台湾地区军情部门提供大陆军队的具体人数、武器参数及假目标的位置。

　　有消息说，在历次演习中，美军有两大担心。一是担心台军士气，另一个担心是盟国在战时的态度。美军认为，战时韩国和日本很难冒着卷入战争的危险向美军开放空军基地或军港。如果盟国不支持，美军的补给线将完全暴露在解放军潜艇部队的火力下。


The latest simulation conducted by the American National Defense University made the American brass very uneasy. In one simulation, the American side intended to use the F-22 and the JSF to attack the airfields and missile bases of the PLAAF under cover of night, and then launch fighters from carriers to attack targets along the coastline. And then, within 5 days, they intended to bring a battalion (?? not sure about this) of ground troops to the front lines so marines can be dropped deep behind enemy lines.

But in the course of the simulation, 3 carriers could not get close to the mainland because they were threatened by antiship missiles. All 250 fighters on board were useless. The American side could only use B-2's and cruise missiles, but their payload was not sufficient to achieve objectives.

The American side is also worried that, in a conflict, Taiwan, S. Korean and Japan would not be willing to let them attack from their bases. So the supply line would be long and vulnerable to attack from PLAN subs.

Roger604 said:

Here is a relevant excerpt from the article I linked to earlier.

另一方面，最近几次的美军模拟演习结果都让美方感到非常不安。在一次演习中，美军原计划用Ｆ—22和“联合攻击”战斗机等最先进的隐形战机夜袭解放军机场和导弹阵地，派航母战斗群打击中国大陆沿海目标，美国陆军在五天之内将一个师的兵力运上前线，海军陆战队搭乘可以垂直起降的Ｖ—22旋翼飞机深入敌后。但在演习的过程中，美军三艘航空母舰在解放军反舰导弹的威胁下，不得不远离海岸线，舰上全部250架战机毫无用武之地。美军能用得上的只有Ｂ—2隐形轰炸机和巡航导弹，但它们对于战争的胜负难以起到决定性作用。

　　按照惯例，美军的台海危机模拟演习由美太平洋司令部作战模拟中心或者国防大学完成。在演习前，美军一方面利用间谍卫星、侦察机、间谍船搜集中国大陆军队在台湾海峡附近的通讯信号、战机转场情况、导弹阵地的具体位置；另一方面，要求台湾地区军情部门提供大陆军队的具体人数、武器参数及假目标的位置。

　　有消息说，在历次演习中，美军有两大担心。一是担心台军士气，另一个担心是盟国在战时的态度。美军认为，战时韩国和日本很难冒着卷入战争的危险向美军开放空军基地或军港。如果盟国不支持，美军的补给线将完全暴露在解放军潜艇部队的火力下。


The latest simulation conducted by the American National Defense University made the American brass very uneasy. In one simulation, the American side intended to use the F-22 and the JSF to attack the airfields and missile bases of the PLAAF under cover of night, and then launch fighters from carriers to attack targets along the coastline. And then, within 5 days, they intended to bring a battalion (?? not sure about this) of ground troops to the front lines so marines can be dropped deep behind enemy lines.

But in the course of the simulation, 3 carriers could not get close to the mainland because they were threatened by antiship missiles. All 250 fighters on board were useless. The American side could only use B-2's and cruise missiles, but their payload was not sufficient to achieve objectives.

The American side is also worried that, in a conflict, Taiwan, S. Korean and Japan would not be willing to let them attack from their bases. So the supply line would be long and vulnerable to attack from PLAN subs.

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Access to bases in Taiwan, SK, Jpn will be key. I don't think Taiwan & SK will let US use, not sure abt Jpn.
Does lack of bases mean F-22 will have to fly from Guam ?
I see they also use JSF in the simulation, so it's for a scenario at least 5 yrs from now ?
Not surprisingly, the conclusion is that US will have to rely heavily on B-2 & cruise missiles initially at least.
How effective will B-2 be without F-22 escorts ? Will there be radar & SAM systems in abt 5 yrs that reduce the effectiveness of B-2 & cruise missiles.

According to the discussion in another thread on this forum, China now has anti-stealth radars. They are apparently based on the Czech "Vera" radar. Of course, the B-2's flight characteristics make it very vulnerable if it is discovered.

1. Can someone provide concrete info on PLAN crews days in training per month/year? Until that is provided, there is no need to belittle PLAN's crews and make them seem like incompetent idiots who can't use their equipment right. Like it was said, kilos were not bought yesterday.

2. Chinese current sub fleet would have very little chance attacking US force thats some 700-1000 km away from chinese shore. They are just way too slow (if quiet) or lack the endurance (if fast) for any kind of true offensive action. They DO worth quite a bit to china, though as they're very good defensive weapons. Difference between such sub fleet or no sub fleet would probably be days/weeks of postponed US action as it meticulously searches the waters around its ships as it slowly approaches china's coast. When used close enough to shore so PLAAF can provide cover and make it harder for USN to use its airborne asw assets - those little subs will be quite a pain in the ass for the US. And if US decides there's no time to lose and that as much forces as possible must go as close to shore as possible to attack certain targets - then even some major sinkings may happen. While the subs arent decisive weapons, if used correctly they can vastly narrow down the strategic choices for the US forces.

2. Official info on s300 does not exist. Unofficially, based on Almaz company news it seems 4 batteries of pmu and 12 batteries of pmu1 were delivered to china with a contract for 8 batteries of pmu2 being either in the works or being signed. So, yes, that would mean no pmu2 battery is operational as of today, even if some did get very recently delivered to china.

3. Taiwan will allow US planes in its airbases if it is already attacked by China. That may or may not be too late already. No other country with the sole exception of japan will want to risk giving aid to US. Perhaps India might allow overflights over its territory but even that's doubtful. Japan, on the other hand, might even allow its bases to be used. Hard to tell, really.

4. To be on topic, finally. For PLAN to be supreme in the pacific with current models of ships and current tech - it would need ridiculously vast numbers of ships. There is no way china will ever go on a spending spree that'd allow for that, which would bankrupt the country. And that's not to allow any other country to increase its force size. In my opinion, there is no need for china (or any other country for that matter) to be supreme in the pacific anyway. It is a waste of money and a dangerous foreign policy. No one likes imperialist attitude. I really hope PLAN will stick to varyag as training carrier, maybe build another training one in 10 years of its own design (for engineering experience) and not go on a suicidal spending spree making multiple carrier groups that'd be more of a liability than anything else. What PLAN is doing today seems very smart and cost effective and in accordance to chinese needs.

KYli said:

isthvan

I would say otherwise, 2-3 improved LA ssn would be cake walk for chinese subs. China do have 20mings 12song 12kilos 2-3yuan, they are not going to sit around and let 2-3 LA ssn take them out one by one.

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You misunderstood my point… I did not say that 2-3 improved LA SSN’s could take out entire Chinese sub fleet… That would be plain ignorant and stupid thing for me to say… What I was trying to say is that 2-3 LA’s could penetrate Chinese sub defenses, launch Harpoon’s, and get out…

I have based my assumptions on fact that China would tray to stop US SSNs with modern subs like Yuan’s and Kilo’s (since Ming’s are totally obsolete (and probably are bigger threat to there crews then to any opponents) and Song’s are total disappointment ore else they would not replacing them whit new type only few years after they got operational status)…

Since number of Kilos and Yuan’s is limited and they can’t be all on same place at one time, and since LA’s have better sonar’s, better and more experienced crews and years of experience in tracking Russian subs they have clear advantage over Chinese sub fleet…

Now considering that and assumption that probable engagement would not be 2-3 LA’s vs 14 Kilo’s/ Yuan’s but more like 1 LA vs 1-3 Kilo’s/ Yuan’s in engagement area I still stand behind what I wrote…
Also I have assumed that LA’s only have to get to some 150km from fleet to fire Harpoon’s, and by so they still have cover from US and Taiwanese ASW assets…

Now since this “my subs are better then yours” talk started when I said that Chinese fleet air defenses have to consider sub lunched Harpoons and Migleader said that Kilos would take care of US subs I would like to say that I like everybody else are just stating my opinion but only about that limited part of scenario and nothing else…

Since this is thread about PLAN I would like to suggest that we drop this US vs PLAN talk and return to topic…

Swemmerxc is not the backer of PLA forces, but I am . I will strongly disagree with some of your opinions, let just say LA subs are not invisible. A quiet diesel subs are as much as a threat as a nuclear subs, eventhrough SSN could put in more tech on board. It does not necessary mean that diesel subs couldn't take out a far more powerful SSN subs

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Nope LA class subs are not invinsible. I never said they were. Desiel subs are hard to track. I never said they could not take out a nuke boat. As I have pointed out in many of my previous post from months ago.

The USN has been training ith the Swedish sub HMS Gotland in the Pacific around San Diego for about 9 months. And accoring to an article published a few months ago has sucsessfully tracked that sub. The article was posted in this forum by Seadog.

What sort of "magic bullet" does the PLAN have reguading "ASW" against any US sub? All I've ever read in this forum is that the ASW capablity of the PLAN lags behind many nations. I even stated myself that if I were the CNO of the PLAN that improving ASW would be my number one priorty.

My opinions are based on my 20 years of experience while serving on active duty in the USN. Also my discussions with my son who is an active duty sonar tech with 8 years experience. He is an instructor of advanced surface sonar technology at the ASW base in San Diego. And my discussions with several defense technical professionals that I have know ..some for more than 20 years.

Oh by the way...war sucks....

isthvan said:

You misunderstood my point… I did not say that 2-3 improved LA SSN’s could take out entire Chinese sub fleet… That would be plain ignorant and stupid thing for me to say… What I was trying to say is that 2-3 LA’s could penetrate Chinese sub defenses, launch Harpoon’s, and get out…

I have based my assumptions on fact that China would tray to stop US SSNs with modern subs like Yuan’s and Kilo’s (since Ming’s are totally obsolete (and probably are bigger threat to there crews then to any opponents) and Song’s are total disappointment ore else they would not replacing them whit new type only few years after they got operational status)…

Since number of Kilos and Yuan’s is limited and they can’t be all on same place at one time, and since LA’s have better sonar’s, better and more experienced crews and years of experience in tracking Russian subs they have clear advantage over Chinese sub fleet…

Now considering that and assumption that probable engagement would not be 2-3 LA’s vs 14 Kilo’s/ Yuan’s but more like 1 LA vs 1-3 Kilo’s/ Yuan’s in engagement area I still stand behind what I wrote…
Also I have assumed that LA’s only have to get to some 150km from fleet to fire Harpoon’s, and by so they still have cover from US and Taiwanese ASW assets…

Now since this “my subs are better then yours” talk started when I said that Chinese fleet air defenses have to consider sub lunched Harpoons and Migleader said that Kilos would take care of US subs I would like to say that I like everybody else are just stating my opinion but only about that limited part of scenario and nothing else…

Since this is thread about PLAN I would like to suggest that we drop this US vs PLAN talk and return to topic…

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The biggest fault in your assumptions will be that China would be on the defensive, so there are no need for them to go too far out of sea. It would be up to US to penetrate the Chinese subs defenses, as an offensive force US need to make the decision rather or not they should attack Chinese subs with limited resources or wait until they gather enough subs to launch an full out assault. There are only one aircraft carrier in the Japan right now, yes they could always get some reenforcement from Guam. But it would not be enough for them, consider that the second and third aircraft carriers will be a week or two away, let along the others will probably take months.

I think it would be rather risky for 2-3 LA SSN to penetrate Chinese defenses and launch Harpoon and get out, it would be unwise to chart into unfriendly territories with many unknown enemies waiting to strike at you. Yeah, US would probably have many sucess attempts, and quick capable of destroy many Chinese subs and warhips. But even if China manage to take out a few of LA SSn, it would come as a big blown to US. US just can't afford to lose subs in this early days of conflict, it would be a psychiatric blow to soilders moral. And if SSN conduct mission too far away from ASW protection, it would be quick dangerous. I knew that you said that SSN could be operate at 150KM from the fleet, but do you think that is always possible. Chinese subs would also operate under the protection of Chinese warships and cruise missiles at land. You might have forget Chinese are quick capable to hit things over 300km away, as long as Chinese subs don't go out of reach. And I do think that China would make the subs stay and hidden in some location and wait for the enemies, rather risk the Subs to attack US' SSN. They knew their enemies are more capable, so it would be stupid for them to do the offensive.

I agreed that we should stay on topic, it would be pointless for us to do debate like this. We don't need any more"my subs is better than you" debate, but I would make it clearly that US' LA SSNs are better than Chinese Yuans and Kilos. Just that I don't agree that Yuan and Kilos could be easily take care of. If Yuan and Kilos are use wisely, it would be as much as a threat to US than US'SSN to the Chinese.

What sort of "magic bullet" does the PLAN have reguading "ASW" against any US sub? All I've ever read in this forum is that the ASW capablity of the PLAN lags behind many nations. I even stated myself that if I were the CNO of the PLAN that improving ASW would be my number one priorty.

My opinions are based on my 20 years of experience while serving on active duty in the USN. Also my discussions with my son who is an active duty sonar tech with 8 years experience. He is an instructor of advanced surface sonar technology at the ASW base in San Diego. And my discussions with several defense technical professionals that I have know ..some for more than 20 years.

Oh by the way...war sucks....

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Hi Popeye

I had read the report about USN able to track diesel Subs, and I do believe that USN are quick capable to do so. But we can't take the reports as a facts, we just don't know enough to say that USN could track every kind of diesel subs in Chinese Navy. It would take a War to find out who is better and what is capable of, but do we really want a War. Maybe we should let US navy and Chinese navy conduct a full scale exercise to find out some of our answers(like it would be happen in a million years), but in the meantime it would be anyone guess.

I agreed that Chinese ASW are weak, and there are nothing China could do except using Subs against Subs for this scenario. Which bring back the same question, can a diesel subs defeated a SSNs. There are no arguement that USN ssn are way better than Yuan or Kilo, but could we make the assumptions that the outcome would be so one side. As much as we knew War was never really predictable, and surely China is powerful enough to make any outcome of war with US unknown.

I am not here to question your experience and knowledge, but I would want to point out that China couldn't underestimate also. We don't know how much progress Chinese had made in this few years both in training and weapon develpment, of course China is still far behind US. But I will question how capable of US able to track diesel, as much as how capable Chinese Navy is.

I agreed that we should stay on topic, it would be pointless for us to do debate like this. We don't need any more"my subs is better than you" .

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With that statement I can agree. You seem to be a very intelligent well spoken person. Outstanding. I hate to agrue with anyone. I look foward to future calm, intelligent postings from you.

Outstanding discussion!

And war still sucks.

let peace reign....