Number of Ships PLAN must have to be supreme

Ok this is not aimed at any county.
But last time I check the PLAN SSK can launch SSM too.
Kilo - Novator 3M-54E - 220km
Yaun - YJ-8X - 120 km.

And war still sucks. let peace reign....

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Popeye I agree with u there.

This topic should chance it title, to something like
HOW CAN PLAN BE IMPROVED?
HOW CAN IT DEFEND ITSELF?
HOW CAN PLAN BE ASIA BEST?
HAHA

Well, I think we have learned something about the original topic from this off-topic extravaganza. The PLAN needs better ASW, as well as better below surface offensive capability. I talked to a guy who flew p-3 Orions out of Subic Bay in the Phillipines. He said that the PLANs subs were easy to track, didn't get out of port too much and knew they were vunerable, so they didn't usually leave costal waters. He was much more concerened about Soviet subs out of Camn Ranh Bay in Vietnam. He left field duty a while ago, but allowing for the improved capability of both sides, it is still generally true.

I would also like to point out that the USNs subs were able to repeatedly penetrate Soviet "safe zones", such as the White sea, the Sea of Okthosk, the Gulf of Finland and the Black Sea. They were even able to get to the entrances of Soviet bases such as Murmansk, Vladivostok, the Kronsdat (I think that's what its called), and others. The Soviets had ASW capabilites that were superioir to what the PLAN has now, and USN subs were still able to get into the most heavily guarded areas the Soviet Navy had to conduct clandestine operations, such as tapping the underwater telephone cable from Petropavlosk to Vladivostok and releasing divers into the headquarters of the Soviet Navy's European Fleet at Murmansk. Sure, the Soviets did some of the same things to the Americans, but no one ever said a PLAN sub wasn't gonna get an Anerican ship or two if that dreaded war ever breaks out. Does the PLAN have anything to compare to this sort of experience? Moreover, we can see that the USNs subs defeated an enemy more prepared than the PLAN is now 20 YEARS AGO. The US might lose a sub or two, but they would definately be able to penetrate PLAN defences and launch cruise missles.

Kyli

Like I said I was talking only about one limited scenario… I agree with a lot of things that you said and since we agree that there are too many variables to be considered in every scenario further debate would be really pointless…

As Popeye said war sucks…

Best Regards,
Isthvan

He left field duty a while ago, but allowing for the improved capability of both sides, it is still generally true.

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A while ago how long was that.

Anyway, why do we want a war between the CHINA and the US anyway in the frist place. It not going to be like the Soviets vrs West.

It really going have a huge impact to the world economic. The outcome is going to be to big bear even for the US. It just not worth it.

The US economic is already in bad shape and the CHINA govt. have a sercet weapon, it call curreny dumping. Joking!!!!! ff

Nethappy..nice avatar!!! Awesome...

Nethappy sez..

Well, I think we have learned something about the original topic from this off-topic extravaganza. The PLAN needs better ASW, as well as better below surface offensive capability. I talked to a guy who flew p-3 Orions out of Subic Bay(NAS Cubi Pt) in the Phillipines. He said that the PLAN subs were easy to track, didn't get out of port too much and knew they were vunerable, so they didn't usually leave costal waters. He was much more concerened about Soviet subs out of Camn Ranh Bay in Vietnam. He left field duty a while ago, but allowing for the improved capability of both sides, it is still generally true.

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Well the base in the Subic/Cubi complex has been closed since Nov '92..nevertheless that info still holds true. I know a more recently retired US P-3/SH-60 AW operator who has echoed the same senitments.

Personally until someone here post some different info or I find it on the web I think the PLAN sorely lacks in training. Enough said.

The PLAN needs to take the ships to sea and operate them. That's how they will learn to best use them for their intended purpose.

Nethappy said:

A while ago how long was that.
The US economic is already in bad shape and the CHINA govt. have a sercet weapon, it call curreny dumping. Joking!!!!! ff

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Sampanviking made that joke a while ago.

Song’s are total disappointment ore else they would not replacing them whit new type only few years after they got operational

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The song is certainly not a dissapointment. The PLAN first started operating Songs in 1999, 7 years ago. The PLAN is merely replacing the song with a more capable yuan.

What I was trying to say is that 2-3 LA’s could penetrate Chinese sub defenses, launch Harpoon’s, and get out…

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Which they are not capable of doing. In a time of conflict, the PLAN would concentarte all of its rescouces in to the taiwan strait area. Im sure they would be expecting U.s SSNs.

War is clearly not going to break out tommorow. Chinas "improvement" curve moves faster than the u.s's. Its not likely that the u.s navy of 2008 will be able to fight the chinese signifigantly better than the the u.s navy of today.
The rest of the concept is difficult to explain, so i wont.

Popeye, if the chinese did have a magic weapon of ASW, we certainly would not know about it until real conflict.

anyhow, lets all quit bashing opinions. none of us know a singifigant amount to keep this disscussion "intellegent", becasue this is one of the vaguest areas of the PLAN.

Sea Dog said:

I wish you would translate it. There is absolutely no way that China's PLAN can defeat the USN. They just don't have the firepower or the experience. Plus I love the picture on the first page of that article showing PLAN ships firing ASM's in trail formation. That shows they don't have a very good grasp of maneuver warfare right there. They may as well just say, "sink us all"..."here we are guys". Sitting ducks.

Realistically, the USN could take care of PLAN with 2 carriers. Each carrier can deliver the equivalent to 900-1000 Tomahawks daily for 2 weeks straight with 24 hour sorties. That doesn't include other naval assets loaded for strike warfare (CG's, DDG's, SSN's, Ohio SSGN's, etc.). And it also doesn't include what the USAF can deliver, which is alot. Plus it doesn't take into account that the US can attack from the Yellow Sea, South China Sea, Philipine Sea, Sea of Japan, Just East of Taiwan, Central Asia, South Korea, Diego Garcia, and sortie heavy bombers from the US mainland. Roger, if you look at China's Order of battle, organizations, and force compositions......there is no way China has enough to stop this kind of onslaught.

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Those ships are shooting off missiles for propaganda/show-of force reasons. They are not engaged in a real military exercise. And how is the USN defeating China with just two carriers if USN destroyers/cruisers/frigates, the entire US sub fleet, and the entire USAF are pitching in? Hells yea the US could reduce the PLAN to nothingness if ALL US resources are utilized, which of course they would be in case of a real war.

bd popeye said:

Well the base in the Subic/Cubi complex has been closed since Nov '92..nevertheless that info still holds true. I know a more recently retired US P-3/SH-60 AW operator who has echoed the same senitments.

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But this person wasn't referring to the diesel subs, was he? No doubt Han class is way obsolete. I think you mentioned before the Yuan, Song and Kilo class subs are a HUGE headache for the USN because their just tooooo quiet.

No doubt the USN is trying to figure out ways to counter diesel subs, but from what I read, a Yuan/Kilo/Song that dives deep and lies in ambush is just about impossible to find for current technologies. Even harder if you're in a rush and trying to barge in.

I recall there were a few times where Chinese subs would suddenly pop up close to Japan and say hello. So, there's undoubtly a lot of PLAN sub activity going completely unnoticed by regional militaries and the USN.

A lot of sources also agree that the cramped quarters of the Taiwan strait and the sheer number of Chinese diesel subs greatly advantage the defending side (which can use ambush techniques).

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Those ships are shooting off missiles for propaganda/show-of force reasons.

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What a horrid waste of resources and time at sea. Either that or they just don't have a good grasp of a maneuvering sea conflict. hmmm.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

And how is the USN defeating China with just two carriers if USN destroyers/cruisers/frigates, the entire US sub fleet, and the entire USAF are pitching in? Hells yea the US could reduce the PLAN to nothingness if ALL US resources are utilized, which of course they would be in case of a real war.

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2 CVBG's conducting strikes would be very difficult for anybody to deal with. The PLAN simply doesn't have the resources or the logistical capabilities to deal with it. And their basing situation is not very ideal for anything other than ops in the Taiwan Straits region. And you can imagine the amount of weaponry that would be focused on this area.

Roger604 said:

No doubt the USN is trying to figure out ways to counter diesel subs, but from what I read, a Yuan/Kilo/Song that dives deep and lies in ambush is just about impossible to find for current technologies. Even harder if you're in a rush and trying to barge in.

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Diesel subs are only quiet at low speeds on batteries. Above certain speeds they are more easily detectable, and deplete their batteries much quicker. That's why they are of little use to the scenario you're describing. Heck, even the Soviet Union understood they couldn't interdict carriers or control areas such as the GIUK gap with diesels. I don't know why China thinks they can. The Soviets understood they were of limited utility in this type of warfare. And they were right. It just won't happen. The CVBG would have to go right on top of a diesel for any luck. And even then, Diesels just don't have the firepower to do much damage against a CVBG, nor do they have the endurance to escape.

Don't get me wrong. Songs, Yuans, and Kilos are all deadly platforms. They can all do tremendous damage. But in this type of warfare, they are certainly not decisive and are unable to maintain any kind of sea control.

Roger604 said:

A lot of sources also agree that the cramped quarters of the Taiwan strait and the sheer number of Chinese diesel subs greatly advantage the defending side (which can use ambush techniques).

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I wouldn't exactly expect USN surface and sub-surface forces to go into this region until PLAN forward bases are dealt with, and enough PLAN vessels are permanent reefs. Just streaming in there on day 1 would be....well....bad sea control strategy.

What a horrid waste of resources and time at sea. Either that or they just don't have a good grasp of a maneuvering sea conflict. hmmm.

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The PLAN holds many excercieses a year, most of which it does not air on media. An excerciese showing this is probably jsut for the cameramen. Just like how pilots would not ever pull a cobra in real combat. The PLAN has existed since the 50's, is its unlikly they are deficient in manuvering.

2 CVBG's conducting strikes would be very difficult for anybody to deal with. The PLAN simply doesn't have the resources or the logistical capabilities to deal with it. And their basing situation is not very ideal for anything other than ops in the Taiwan Straits region. And you can imagine the amount of weaponry that would be focused on this area.

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I would like you to prove that claim, espcially since we know so little about PLAN rescuorces and logistics. im assuming we ARE talking about taiwan here, not japan or SEA.

Diesel subs are only quiet at low speeds on batteries. Above certain speeds they are more easily detectable, and deplete their batteries much quicker. That's why they are of little use to the scenario you're describing. Heck, even the Soviet Union understood they couldn't interdict carriers or control areas such as the GIUK gap with diesels. I don't know why China thinks they can. The Soviets understood they were of limited utility in this type of warfare. And they were right. It just won't happen. The CVBG would have to go right on top of a diesel for any luck. And even then, Diesels just don't have the firepower to do much damage against a CVBG, nor do they have the endurance to escape.

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The top naval commnders and tacticianers of the PLAN are definitely wiser in naval matters than any of us, so it is very ignorant to say these things based on a some internet facts and pictures. Since China is on the defence from the u.s, it may set up its SSKs strategically and wait for the u.s cvbg. No need to move more than 5 knots in this scenario. Even one torpedo hit on a carrier, listing it, will make it unable to handle aircraft.

Don't get me wrong. Songs, Yuans, and Kilos are all deadly platforms. They can all do tremendous damage. But in this type of warfare, they are certainly not decisive and are unable to maintain any kind of sea control.

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You are correct, although defence of the region is hardly sea control.

I wouldn't exactly expect USN surface and sub-surface forces to go into this region until PLAN forward bases are dealt with, and enough PLAN vessels are permanent reefs. Just streaming in there on day 1 would be....well....bad sea control strategy.

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Its not going to easy nor fast for the U.s to deal with all PLAN forward bases, so waiting may lose valauble time.