And with the if and but of assuming China would fight 2 massive wars to prevent nuclear threats only to do nothing while a secretly anti China country spent decades building a nuke without help from anyone 5 minutes away from Beijing is indeed, a massive if and but. So I think you have a wise saying.in my country they say that:
" con i se e con i ma non si fa la storia " ,
literally translated
"with ifs and buts you don't make history",
I hope the translation is effective in understanding it, in any case it is a way of saying that invites healthy realism and concreteness of action, not to stop at hypotheses or suppositions.
Leave the cope fiction to Tom clancy, this is real life.