News on China's scientific and technological development.

WTAN · Sep 5, 2020

If the US goes ahead to sanction SMIC and other FABs, this could be the biggest gift to the Chinese Semiconductor Industry.

Lets look at what will happen if this goes ahead:

1) The business of American, Japanese and European Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers in China will be destroyed overnight. No Chinese FAB would buy foreign equipment which would eventually become unusable and worthless scrap metal.
The Local Equipment manufacturers like Naura, CETC and SMEE would benefit as all the local FABs would order equipment from them. This will allow them to make more profits and reinvest in R&D.

2) This also means that SMIC and other FABs can continue to supply Huawei with Chips till its materials and spare parts run out. This could save Huawei's Handset business and provide the SOCs for its 5G Base Stations.

3) The Government will probably order SMIC to hand over its foreign made equipment from ASML, LAM and KLA TENCOR to local manufacturers for inspection and Reverse Engineering. China could then be producing the latest Semiconductor Equipment within 6 months. Local FABs can then use the SMEE 28nm Litho together with Localised Manufacturing Equipment to rapidly start producing 14nm and 7nm Chips.

4) In the long term, the Government should provide financial support to innovative Semiconductor equipment manufacturers. This will keep Chinas FABs up to date with the latest processes and technologies.

ansy1968 · Sep 5, 2020

WTAN said:
If the US goes ahead to sanction SMIC and other FABs, this could be the biggest gift to the Chinese Semiconductor Industry.

Lets look at what will happen if this goes ahead:

1) The business of American, Japanese and European Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers in China will be destroyed overnight. No Chinese FAB would buy foreign equipment which would eventually become unusable and worthless scrap metal.
The Local Equipment manufacturers like Naura, CETC and SMEE would benefit as all the local FABs would order equipment from them. This will allow them to make more profits and reinvest in R&D.

2) This also means that SMIC and other FABs can continue to supply Huawei with Chips till its materials and spare parts run out. This could save Huawei's Handset business and provide the SOCs for its 5G Base Stations.

3) The Government will probably order SMIC to hand over its foreign made equipment from ASML, LAM and KLA TENCOR to local manufacturers for inspection and Reverse Engineering. China could then be producing the latest Semiconductor Equipment within 6 months. Local FABs can then use the SMEE 28nm Litho together with Localised Manufacturing Equipment to rapidly start producing 14nm and 7nm Chips.

4) In the long term, the Government should provide financial support to innovative Semiconductor equipment manufacturers. This will keep Chinas FABs up to date with the latest processes and technologies.

Hi WTAN,

will this affect SMIC operation? What about technical personnel, will SMIC able to hire local technician to able to operated this foreign equipment if ASML and others leaves?

Petrolicious88 · Sep 5, 2020

ansy1968 said:
Hi WTAN,

will this affect SMIC operation? What about technical personnel, will SMIC able to hire local technician to able to operated this foreign equipment if ASML and others leaves?

A ban on SMIC would have huge negative implications for Chinese tech industries as a whole.

There is no sugar coating this. In the short term, it would be devastating to many Chinese industries as the US has a total chokehold on key areas of chip design/manufacturing.

China needs to fight back and somehow force the US to reverse these bans, while buying time to develop domestic capabilities.

siegecrossbow · Sep 5, 2020

machupicu said:
The most worrying scenario for Huawei is that it will need China to stand-up a silicon supply chain non-reliant on any U.S. tech—this will take years and Huawei won’t retain its current form until then. Its smartphone business will be irrevocably changed, its 5G business materially damaged. For its part, Huawei now
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that it intends to invest in its own HiSilicon chipset development business to create a non-U.S. capacity of its own, within a few years from now.

Huawei analyst Dave Burstein suggests that, in reality, a Chinese chip maker will supply Huawei, regardless of American sanctions. “I think it highly unlikely the U.S. can prohibit a Chinese foundry from selling to a Chinese company in China,”
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“I’d expect any rational American regime to avoid raising the issue.” Given the level of those chipsets, this might fix its larger equipment issue, but not its smartphones.

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Lol.

WTAN · Sep 5, 2020

ansy1968 said:
Hi WTAN,

will this affect SMIC operation? What about technical personnel, will SMIC able to hire local technician to able to operated this foreign equipment if ASML and others leaves?

I think SMIC should be able to operate the FABS normally as they have technicians that have already been trained by ASML and other companies. They will continue to produce Chips till the equipment breaks down or runs out of parts.

But remember that the new SMEE 28nm Litho is ready by the end of the year and this will take over from the ASML equipment. The equipment from Naura ,North Industries and CETC are all fairly advanced as well and can be used as replacements for the equipment from LAM, KLA Tencor etc.

Hendrik_2000 · Sep 5, 2020

Petrolicious88 said:
A ban on SMIC would have huge negative implications for Chinese tech industries as a whole.

There is no sugar coating this. In the short term, it would be devastating to many Chinese industries as the US has a total chokehold on key areas of chip design/manufacturing.

China needs to fight back and somehow force the US to reverse these bans, while buying time to develop domestic capabilities.

I am not so sure about that When google cancel the google play store/mobile service on Huawei phone seem like the end of Huawei phone but Huawei was able to replace with Huawei app gallery and has seen success in Europe as subscription has balloon and developer rush to add app.

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China according to Richard Chang the founder of SMIC is not that desperate aside from lithograph machine they are more or less self sufficient in semi conductor equipment maybe not the best But they are available The big hurdle is the acceptance of semiconductor company like SMIC

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"There are places where China is very strong, such as packaging and testing. As far as equipment is concerned, we are lagging behind at optical technology. If we look specifically at the materials, manufacturing, design, etc. of three generations of semiconductors, the gap we have on materials, I personally don't think it's very big."

"To consider the talent base in a short period of time, this is one of our weaknesses, the foundation may be done, but there is a gap between the foundation and the application, how to shorten it? European and American companies are doing a little better, so we borrow their strengths to learn from them."

In 2009, Chang left the SMIC to pursue other interests. Now he is the founder and chairman of SiEn (Qingdao) Integrated Circuit Co.,Ltd.

j17wang · Sep 5, 2020

Weaasel said:
It is only a matter of time before SMIC gets formally black listed by the United States.... One could see this coming a million tera light-years away and at billion years ago...

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If SMIC gets black listed, china still needs to ensure continuity of its IT sector over the 2 months before the November elections. Hopefully protests and direct action in the US can continue. There is real chance of extensive civil unrest, if it comes china can simply begin reverse engineering all technologies no-holds-bar while the US security forces are deployed against its citizens. Also, all agreements with US government become null and void, as China should recognize the biden administration immediately. I dont really care about whether Biden is anti-china or not, its more about not recognizing trump as the government of the US, hell I dont even care if Biden wins, I just hope he doesn't concede without a fight. Biden clearly does not want recognition to come from China, so we must duly give it to him anyways. It will be especially important to do it fast, so that trump/republicans truly believe biden is paid by china, and further deepen animosity between the two sides. At the same time, it is imperative that russia continues to meddle in the US elections to create a more favorable trump result, which obviously wouldn't be recognized by democrats.

ansy1968 · Sep 5, 2020

WTAN said:
I think SMIC should be able to operate the FABS normally as they have technicians that have already been trained by ASML and other companies. They will continue to produce Chips till the equipment breaks down or runs out of parts.

But remember that the new SMEE 28nm Litho is ready by the end of the year and this will take over from the ASML equipment. The equipment from Naura ,North Industries and CETC are all fairly advanced as well and can be used as replacements for the equipment from LAM, KLA Tencor etc.

Hi WTAN,

What about the recent expansion plan of SMIC, I think they had recently purchase a lot of equipment from the American supplier?, Hope they get a full refund from their purchases?

localizer · Sep 5, 2020

Foreign companies can spinoff divisions dedicated to supplying Chinese companies. Perhaps the DUV supply chain can be dedicated to China if US wants to use EUV exclusively . They would be stupid not to.

ansy1968 · Sep 5, 2020

j17wang said:
If SMIC gets black listed, china still needs to ensure continuity of its IT sector over the 2 months before the November elections. Hopefully protests and direct action in the US can continue. There is real chance of extensive civil unrest, if it comes china can simply begin reverse engineering all technologies no-holds-bar while the US security forces are deployed against its citizens. Also, all agreements with US government become null and void, as China should recognize the biden administration immediately. I dont really care about whether Biden is anti-china or not, its more about not recognizing trump as the government of the US. Biden clearly does not want recognition to come from China, so we must duly give it to him anyways. It will be especially important to do it fast, so that trump/republicans will truly believe biden is paid by china, and further deepen animosity between the two sides. At the same time, it is imperative that russia continues to meddle in the US elections to create a more favorable trump result, which obviously wouldnt be recognized by democrats.

Hi "j17wang,

All in all, its about time a comprehensive national IC project is finally being undertaken, Its takes a Trump to shake China from its complacency.

News on China's scientific and technological development.

WTAN

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ansy1968

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Petrolicious88

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siegecrossbow

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WTAN

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j17wang

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localizer

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