The most worrying scenario for Huawei is that it will need China to stand-up a silicon supply chain non-reliant on any U.S. tech—this will take years and Huawei won’t retain its current form until then. Its smartphone business will be irrevocably changed, its 5G business materially damaged. For its part, Huawei now
that it intends to invest in its own HiSilicon chipset development business to create a non-U.S. capacity of its own, within a few years from now.
Huawei analyst Dave Burstein suggests that, in reality, a Chinese chip maker will supply Huawei, regardless of American sanctions. “I think it highly unlikely the U.S. can prohibit a Chinese foundry from selling to a Chinese company in China,”
“I’d expect any rational American regime to avoid raising the issue.” Given the level of those chipsets, this might fix its larger equipment issue, but not its smartphones.