News on China's scientific and technological development.

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Yeah, you turned into a strawman about necessity. My contention is that immigration is beneficial.
No, I used the term need, as any normal person would understand. "I need to take a shower." "I need to finish this before Friday." And in your total inability to understand, you answered, "You don't need to! You won't die! You don't even need to have a bathroom." Your literal interpretation shows your level is far below this conversation.
No, immigration is still beneficial, macro doesn't change across national borders.
Uh, no, not to China. I gave reasons and you did not answer them.
Economics my friend. High wages indicate disequilibrium, namely a supply shortage. No, the supply constraint isn't specific to China but it's still a supply constraint that exists in China. Fixing the supply constraint to allow for corporate development is good.
Answering this with "economics" is like an old preacher answering every question with "God." You don't know what you're talking about and that highly educated critical people will be highly paid in any market will never change regardless of immigration. They are separate issues.
China has a supply shortage in STEM given China's low GDPPC and the high salaries given to STEM graduates that are standard deviations above other salaries. And in any case, overall STEM employment doesn't decrease when you introduce more STEM talent to a region. The AEA uses a really interesting IV to proxy for it.
Yeah that's wrong. China has an oversupply of STEM students and you cannot debunk this with naturally higher wages of top STEM talent.
The solution is to deepen human capital and to pursue immigration within a few parameters to control for security risk. If other countries can be secure with substantial foreign-born populations, then China keeping it within single digits can also manage it.
No, the solution is to train Chinese STEM to fill all these roles. Other countries leak information all the time to foreign scientists; China need not follow that.
Wages are market signals. Extremely high CEO salaries in fact indicate that management talent is in shortage, and surprise, it is.
CEO wages are naturally higher than blue collar wages. Extremely high has to be defined and a lot of math needs to be done to see if China has any "extreme" issues or if they are within normal differences.
Or you allow the foreigner to live and work in China and let them establish a family in China, thus ensuring their talents in China for a lifetime as well as tax collections and improved demographic structure.
Or they can teach their talent to Chinese, keeping it in China and they can get paid and go home. China is a homogenous society for the Chinese.
To limit HUMINT? I've never said there weren't security risks with immigration, I just said they weren't overwhelming enough to limit all immigration. If you'll note from State Department monthly visa issuance reports as well, there are plently of F-1s being issued.
The US operates under an immigrant heavy model and severely limiting immigration would damage the American economy and scientific fields. Despite this, the US is still trying to limit Chinese immigration because they know of the security risks involved with foreign nationals with allegiance to a rival nation. You're the only person who doesn't get it.
Most biologists use similar techniques and most chemists use similar techniques, etc
I don't know about chemists but for biologists, that's not even true. A neuroscientist and a geneticist have nearly no common instruments with each other at the higher levels. You are too ignorant to have such a stubborn opinion.
We are talking past each other. 86% of Chinese students *in composite* wish to return. 85% of Chinese *PHD* students in the United States stay.
Your data on PhD students is dated 2005-2015. 2010, the average, is 11 years ago. Don't try to weasel out of this one.
Undergraduates aren't learning new information anywhere in the world. Undergraduates have no particular specialized information
LOLOLOL Have you seen a Chinese undergrad at Georgia Tech?? Machine learning, Computer science, software programming; they graduate to 6 figure salaries and are coveted all over the world. So ignorant, once again, on education. That you think everything is simple shows how simple your mind is.
The US lacks neither lol.
What it lacked and what trade it made are two different things. Comprehension failure on your part.
No, they don't. Most foreign Chinese students are undergraduates, not graduate students. You pay to attend most BA/BS/MS/MA programs, only PhDs programs are paid and even then, lel.
They don't what? So undergrads pay, then mostly take knowledge back home while PhDs are paid and take knowledge back home too. Some stay, but overall, net information is transferred back home. How hard is that for you to understand?
Your Wikipedia list includes all spy cases including cases that fell apart on trial as well as nearly every DOJ case with a China nexus, even when spying or theft wasn't even alleged. There were even a ton of fraud cases that amount to abusing 18 USC 1001 to prosecute administrative errors.
Yeah, a ton of cases, not all relevant, but many relevant and totally puts your 3 cases aside.
Surprise, there are books on nuclear engineering that explain the iterated process. Obviously, would require more specific work.
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Yeaahhhhh, more specific work. There we go. The devil's in the details.
Correct, long-run immigration data is hard to come across and it's not contradictory. The 85% stay rate was for PhDs, your 86% is for all Chinese students, the majority of which are undergraduates. Undergraduates don't matter much in this context.
Data across 10 years aggregated together fail to show any trends and you try to weasel the average to represent the current situation when the trendline favors China.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Yes, what you are describing is productivity. Is it anywhere near 6.7x, especially for China as it exists in 2021? Doubt it though I'm willing to accept contradictory evidence on this.
It doesn't have to be 6.7x in 2021; it can be in 2005 when that ratio made sense. Now, the data skews towards China. And you are, once again, confusing scientific output with economic output.
Qian Xuesen's value can be calculated with the NPV of China's NIPA tables.
Don't try that bullcrap. Calculate the value of going from a non-nuclear to a nuclear power?
But I think you are proving my point. High-tech migration is good, actually.
No, that's my point, that sea turtle return immigration is good. Qian is not a foreigner.
The contention is that Chinese students that study abroad, most of the PhD/MS stay abroad, and thus the benefits are asymmetric for the host country. If it's 6.7x to break even in the 2005-2015 cohort, it was probably even a higher requisite productivity return in the past (not to mention the money China spend on their undergraduate education).
They lifted Chinese science to quickly catch up with Western counterparts. You can't put a dollar sign on it.
Also, doubtful that Qian Xuesen isn't replaceable given that other materiel programs apart in the 1950s/1960s in China with some churning level of development.
Sure, no one is unreplaceable but it would take longer and possibly result in something less. I just showed you the benefit of this returning sea turtle and you tried to argue that he wasn't absolutely needed. You're slapping your own argument on want vs need that no one else was confused by except you.
Yes, tell me about this exquisite information that is only uniquely available in the United States but is widely taught at US state flagship universities.
Well, Mr. Know Nothing, every major university, be it in the US, UK, France, China, has its own experts as professors. These professors are one of a kind and each person can be the tip of the spear in his own right. MIT, GA Tech, CalTech, Tsinghua, Oxford, Peking University, etc... they all have certain distinguished professors that are generally good but specialize in some minute detail that makes the difference between good enough and best in the world. Just because your simple mind can't imagine such a degree of detail and specialization doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Nope. Two different series. *All Chinese students* and *PhD students* are not the same.
At least they overlap. 2005-2015 doesn't even overlap with a modern dataset and the lumping makes trend identification impossible.
2.5x was because I know China isn't the United States and thus the per capta level of migration needs to be smaller.
Ok so you just made it up based on nothing but your imagination.
China being for Chinese people isn't contradictory with immigration since immigration improves per capita income and productivity and thus makes life better for Chinese people.
Statement not accepted. Immigration can move these things either way and it can also dilute Chinese dominance in high tech sectors within China and present security risks.
Yes? Thank you for the definitions.
Then learn them and stop committing errors. No immigration of non-ethnic Chinese is encouraged, but contracting them for short term work can be done based on need.
Legally, they can cancel all the passports and refuse to renew them or the US can abuse the no-fly list or get some crackpot DA somewhere to issue an indictment. There are enough legal instruments to prevent someone from leaving if they want to The US is still receiving substantial migration from China. Harassment and racial profiling by government agents isn't new, lol. It's not evidence of anything.
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eah, they can't legally do anything without either being destroyed by the Supreme Court for racism or looking to the whole world like the US lost its mind all over again under Biden.
Which is why visa issuance is still very high and the US naturalizes people from China? Most of the immigration backlog is administrative processing bullshit.
This is still happening because the US veneer of anti-racism and being immigrant friendly would collapse if the US just said all Chinese people aren't welcome. It would tear apart their own fabric and show the whole world that the US has lost it against China. The US is limiting Chinese STEM students, which shows you that this exchange is not in their favor.
Again, why not? It's beneficial for the economy and for the population structure and all security risks can be mitigated.
Again, because China is homogenous and wants to remain so.
No. It isn't. I'm excluding undergraduate students from this calculation because nothing unique is learned in undergraduate. It's still ~85% for all PhD students from China so each PhD that returns to China would need to be 6.7x as productive/valuable as those that stay for the zero-sum to break even.
It's still 85%? It's still the average of 2005 and 2015? What is it, 2010 now? You're never getting away with this so if you were even of average intellect, you should know to stop trying.
You seem to be fighting a few strawmen that
If I'm fighting strawmen, it's because your arguments are as empty as strawmen.
- Immigration is ipso facto bad (no)
Yes, reread this:
China is highly/densely populated, homogenous, would like to remain so, and has people who are intelligent enough to learn anything. Therefore, the use of contracted foreign instructors and specialists in temporary niche roles are fine, but their immigration is not beneficial to any of China's goals.
- There are no benefits from Chinese students overseas (my argument is that there are benefits to China but substantial costs as well and those don't always net out favorably towards China)
Your reading comprehension is to blame. I said they benefit the US but the ones that go home benefit Chinese science and tech development more.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
To close the immigration argument since it's getting off-topic and unwieldy
I'll decide when it's closed, not you.
- Immigration is in general good for economic & technological development, esp. high-tech immigration and it doesn't hurt local employment conditions and thus should be encouraged
Not immigration, niche role short term contracting. Immigration of non-sea turtles is against China's homogeneity and presents long term security risks.
- Brain drain, in general, is bad for the country being drained because of talent outflow but there are edge cases.
Yes, but brain circulation can more than make up for this.
- For the brain drain that really matters, graduate-level education, the stay rates are so high that the amount of productivity the few returnees would have to possess is so high that there is no way that it benefits the sending country more.
That's not going to be true no matter how many times you repeat it. Those who return can spur an entire industry with new ideas and tech, having many many more times the effect than a person could working for a developed environment using the ideas they learned there.
- Technological diffusion & information diffusion is good for economic development, esp. for poorer countries. Diasporas are not the only or even most common or best way for said diffusion to happen.
Whether they are the best way I am not sure, but they are a large force towards this effect.
- All this is a general case, there will of course be edge cases
- Security risks are there but can be mitigated with a few policies applied equally regardless of national origin.
Better to shorten these security risks with temporary contracts rather than long term immigration, which Chinese homogenous society doesn't need.

In summary, you're wrong on everything because:

1. You fail to understand China's STEM surplus but mistake it for a deficit simply because like everywhere else, top grads are paid top salaries.
2. You fail to understand that there are things to be learned in foreign countries because you're too simple-minded and think that everybody everywhere does things the same.
3. You fail to grasp that China wishes to maintain a homogenous society.
4. You fail to understand that scientific advancement isn't measured in dollars and that a person introducing new foreign ideas to a lower tech environment can have a force multiplier effect over another person acting as a linear worker circulating the same ideas in the environment that created them.
 

Aniah

Senior Member
Registered Member
@manqiangrexue
You have a lot of patience to indulge in the loquaciousness of the indian character; for these types, attention is what they seek, which i believe comes from a place of neglect.
I blocked that troll a couple of days ago when he started saying inflation isn't real. Props to manqiangrexue because I usually block people the moment they saying something unbelievably stupid. Must be because I'm still young haha! :p
 
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Deleted member 15949

Guest
In summary, you're wrong on everything because:

1. You fail to understand China's STEM surplus but mistake it for a deficit simply because like everywhere else, top grads are paid top salaries.
2. You fail to understand that there are things to be learned in foreign countries because you're too simple-minded and think that everybody everywhere does things the same.
3. You fail to grasp that China wishes to maintain a homogenous society.
4. You fail to understand that scientific advancement isn't measured in dollars and that a person introducing new foreign ideas to a lower tech environment can have a force multiplier effect over another person acting as a linear worker circulating the same ideas in the environment that created them.
LOL, I've learned I would be a bad prosecutor. Anyways
1. Highly educated people are highly paid because their talents are scarce. Wages that are standard deviations above the rest of the country are evidence of shortage and allocation issues, not surplus

2. I never said they aren't things to learn in foreign countries. My contention is that universities aren't going to be the main process knowledge necessary for that.

3. You can also limit the number of immigrants so that China is always Chinese. The national security risks are minimal and inherent with Chinese nationals as well - IP & deemed export control regimes exist to manage that risk. Your pertinent stuff about the national security risks from the US is even less relevant given that US/allies generally have higher GDPPCs than the US and are unlikely to want to migrate anyway (but even without the US/EU/JP, that's still 5 billion people. The sea turtle/foreigner distinction is fairly immaterial in this context.

4. We both agree on brain circulation is beneficial. A person introducing new ideas to a lower-tech environment would end up bleeding through to supply-side national accounting. This is though largely immaterial to the debate given that China more or less already has the baseline of commercializing nearly all ideas to be commercialized. I'm skeptical (and you disagree and we leave it at that) current patterns of brain drain/circulation end up being net beneficial for China (more specific NSF Stay data would be necessary though) since I don't consider undergrad done in China vs. other countries to be substantially or materially different.

Two addendums
- Your evidence of the cases, ends up being maybe a few dozen over decades, some of which were active HUMINT and very few were brain circulation person decides to engage in criminal activity. I do bring up the DOJ China Initiative since it was AUSAs and the entire NSD actively searching for economic crimes related to China and they could find a hot total of 13 that went back 5 years. So yes, I'm highly skeptical of the idea of exclusive information flowing back to China from the United States (esp. given that of the 13 HUMINT-ish related cases, a few don't even allege theft)

- Small addendum on the 6.7x. Economic output has a nearly one-to-one relationship with scientific output since productivity is necessary to drive output
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
LOL, I've learned I would be a bad prosecutor.
Yeah, you wouldn't want to bring up bullshit arguments to a judge like you did here or you'd have a very short career.
Anyways
1. Highly educated people are highly paid because their talents are scarce. Wages that are standard deviations above the rest of the country are evidence of shortage and allocation issues, not surplus
A shortage is not the same as a system that naturally needs less of that type of talent. CEOs are always paid more than blue collars because a CEO's talents are rarer but they are supposed to be because a company doesn't need more CEOs than janitors. A company can have 1 very highly paid CEO and it will remain that way no matter how many competing offers there are for the position. They will not dock his pay and they will not hire a whole bunch more CEOs. There is no shortage, simply, his skill is worth more.

Anyway, even if there is a shortage for a specific specialty type of STEM, the correct route, and China's current route, is to 1. immigrate sea turtles to fill it and 2. hire foreigners on short contracts to train Chinese workers from the surplus of base STEM to the deficit specialty STEM.
2. I never said they aren't things to learn in foreign countries. My contention is that universities aren't going to be the main process knowledge necessary for that.
Yeah, you did. You falsely insinuated that all PhDs were the same, then that failing, that all chemists/biologists were the same within their fields, that there was nothing you specifically had to send a student abroad to learn, and more comically, that Qian Xuesen's efforts were needless because you can learn to build a nuclear weapon from a textbook.
3. You can also limit the number of immigrants so that China is always Chinese.
Not good enough. We're not just trying to cling to a majority here; the fewer the better, the purer the better.
The national security risks are minimal and inherent with Chinese nationals as well - IP & deemed export control regimes exist to manage that risk. Your pertinent stuff about the national security risks from the US is even less relevant given that US/allies generally have higher GDPPCs than the US and are unlikely to want to migrate anyway (but even without the US/EU/JP, that's still 5 billion people. The sea turtle/foreigner distinction is fairly immaterial in this context.
Nope. There is risk with everyone but at least with sea turtles, the DNA is loyal to China from a base whereas with foreigners, the DNA is neutral or anti-China. It's not debatable that a born and bred Caucasian American is more likely to do things in favor of the US (legally if he doesn't dare to do so illegally) than a sea turtle who has decided that China is his home afterall.
4. We both agree on brain circulation is beneficial. A person introducing new ideas to a lower-tech environment would end up bleeding through to supply-side national accounting. This is though largely immaterial to the debate given that China more or less already has the baseline of commercializing nearly all ideas to be commercialized.
No, we don't agree. You asserted that it was asymmetric towards the travel country and I showed that it is asymmetrical towards the origin country, specifically, China.
Two addendums
- Your evidence of the cases, ends up being maybe a few dozen over decades, some of which were active HUMINT and very few were brain circulation person decides to engage in criminal activity. I do bring up the DOJ China Initiative since it was AUSAs and the entire NSD actively searching for economic crimes related to China and they could find a hot total of 13 that went back 5 years. So yes, I'm highly skeptical of the idea of exclusive information flowing back to China from the United States (esp. given that of the 13 HUMINT-ish related cases, a few don't even allege theft)
This is no longer confined to brain circulation but it ties into my last point: a person is more likely to be loyal to his home country in both legal and illegal ways than a countryman is to sell out to a foreign competitor nation.
- Small addendum on the 6.7x. Economic output has a nearly one-to-one relationship with scientific output since productivity is necessary to drive output
Not true. For example, at the start of this tech war, people thought that Chinese lithography was maybe 2 decades away from where it needed to be to fight the tech war. This is because Chinese economic output/productivity was basically non-existent. Surprise surprise; China was actually very advanced and on the cusp many breakthroughs that could cut its time to competitive viability to just 2 years and to the forefront in 5 or less years. This represents tremendous scientific presence without economic presence. Same with military and other non-commercial tech. Not everything's about making gadgets that go to the market.
 
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Deleted member 15949

Guest
Yeah, you wouldn't want to bring up bullshit arguments to a judge like you did here or you'd have a very short career.
Nah, I'm just bad on the stand with immediately coming up with cross-examined witnesses. Most of the courtroom is filing pretrial motions and taking depositions and that just involves being a pedantic fuck and knowing the case law. Anyway, I'm not sure why I'm continuing to do this but I digress.
A shortage is not the same as a system that naturally needs less of that type of talent. CEOs are always paid more than blue collars because a CEO's talents are rarer but they are supposed to be because a company doesn't need more CEOs than janitors. A company can have 1 very highly paid CEO and it will remain that way no matter how many competing offers there are for the position. They will not dock his pay and they will not hire a whole bunch more CEOs. There is no shortage, simply, his skill is worth more.
The skill is worth more because it is scarce.
Anyway, even if there is a shortage for a specific specialty type of STEM, the correct route, and China's current route, is to 1. immigrate sea turtles to fill it and 2. hire foreigners on short contracts to train Chinese workers from the surplus of base STEM to the deficit specialty STEM.
Or 1. immigrate sea turtles, 2. immigrate foreigners but most importantly, 3) develop the talent at home.
Not good enough. We're not just trying to cling to a majority here; the fewer the better, the purer the better.
Yeah, no. That's unnecessary and serves no purpose but does hurt the demographic structure (and has various netty fiscal issues), not to mention that Han Chinese is a sort of *None of the Above ethnic group.
Nope. There is risk with everyone but at least with sea turtles, the DNA is loyal to China from a base whereas with foreigners, the DNA is neutral or anti-China. It's not debatable that a born and bred Caucasian American is more likely to do things in favor of the US (legally if he doesn't dare to do so illegally) than a sea turtle who has decided that China is his home afterall.
The problem is that the crime rate for both groups is very low and highly variable so again, it's functionally moot-ish. And again, the national security risks are fairly easy to mitigate.
No, we don't agree. You asserted that it was asymmetric towards the travel country and I showed that it is asymmetrical towards the origin country, specifically, China.
No, you didn't. You gave a bunch of conjectures and described what convergence was.
Not true. For example, at the start of this tech war, people thought that Chinese lithography was maybe 2 decades away from where it needed to be to fight the tech war. This is because Chinese economic output/productivity was basically non-existent. Surprise surprise; China was actually very advanced and on the cusp many breakthroughs that could cut its time to competitive viability to just 2 years and to the forefront in 5 or less years. This represents tremendous scientific presence without economic presence. Same with military and other non-commercial tech. Not everything's about making gadgets that go to the market.
Yes, China had optics, vibrations, and MechE talent that could make a lithography scanner and commercial presence don't necessarily reflect capabilities because markets don't always align. Chinese policy should have an industrial policy that keeps some capabilities latent in case of supply shocks so I agree here, it's not exactly one-to-one in China.
 
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