New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
My observation is that China auto market is very different from US auto market.

(1) US is winner-takes-all capitalism while China is quasi-capitalism with deep localization.
Car eco-system and supply-chain is a hot area that every provincial governor is chasing. I don't see any feasibility that China would consolidate into less than 7 domestic auto brands. JVs will stay due to deep entrenched local interests. Tesla will remain the only fully-owned auto brand in China. I don't see Toyota has enough offer to get a similar deal in Shanghai as reported earlier for a Tesla-like Lexus deal.

(2) Toyota's 1st market is US. VW's 1st market is China.
Toyota cannot afford pissing of US for any perceivable reasons, while VW cannot afford losing China auto market.

(3) Outside US political echo chamber, the global auto industry is realizing how advanced China auto industry has become.
With the largest auto market and the leading EV eco-system, it is already like "if you cannot make in China auto market, your cars are not competitive enough".

US is not capitalism at all. State governors will go to great lengths to attract auto plants as they are seen as prestigious manufacturing and good vote-getters. They will go far to keep them with incentives and public opposition to labour unions, so actually it's national socialism.

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Problem with the JVs is that they simply either have inferior or no cars at all to build with the preference of PHEVs and EVs
Honda: 0 EV, 0 PHEV
GM: EVs: Lyriq, Optiq, Equinox, Blazer, Hummer, Silverado, Escalade IQ. 0 PHEV
Toyota: bZ4x, bZ3 (BYD based car), Prius Prime PHEV, RAV4 (Wildlander) Prime PHEV
Nissan: Ariya EV, Sakura EV, Slyphy EREV
VWAG: ID-series, Q4, Q6/Macan, Taycan/e-Tron GT
*Not all of the above are available in China, just giving an idea of what could be built

For GM, only the smaller cars are relevant, but the Lyriq which has been on sale for quite some time has clearly not shown enough to management to believe that their pipeline is strong enough since they are already talking about strategic retreat.

Honda has nothing at all. Further cooperation with GM has been scrapped, however no models have been shown except for the Honda-Sony Afeela which is not a production ready concept (despite claims of being ready for 2025)

Nissan is in disarray due to the crumbling partnership with Renault. Perhaps the new Geely venture will help.

Toyota has great brand loyalty, but the pipeline is bare. Complicating this is that now they also have to develop China competitive smart features. They are trying (Huawei/Momenta partnership, BYD joint venture), but at the moment they don't have anything close. However, those moves are indicative of a company that still sees the value in the market relative to ROI.

China is the only market with such cutthroat EV competition. In other markets, Tesla is the clear leader in EVs for better or worse. Driving an EV from a conventional automaker, the dynamics are fine, quality is good, but there is no intelligence whatsoever. Some people have better experiences, but I don't personally feel its there.

Please could you explain to me what an actual hybrid drivetrain is? I presume that Western PHEVs have a different type of drivetrain? Thanks very much.

Western PHEVs do not have a different drive train, just note the below

Hybrid Drive train - electric motor and gas motor can both drive the car
Extended range EV (aka not a true hybrid) - only the electric motor drives the car, gas motor only provides electric power
EREVs are not generally available outside of China

A few other points
Toyota hybrids are "true hybrids" in the engineering sense, but with respect to everyday use, it is just a fuel efficiency boost when they lack the plug in part (they only have two PHEVs as noted above). PHEV should be able to run in full EV mode (no gas being used).

EREV is much simpler/cheaper to build, but the biggest disadvantage is terrible fuel efficiency if you need that aspect. European countries have those mandates for EVs in 2030, so there is no point to develop those. Might as well put in more batteries.

BYD has the economy of scale and production efficiency to deliver true PHEV at a price competitive or lower than ICE cars which is how they are tearing up these sales charts.
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
Some interesting observations from the table:

BYD occupies 4 of top 5 ranks and 9 out of 20 ranks.

Model Y is in the sweet-spot of the Chinese car buyers: modern mid-size SUV (actually cross-over but buyers don't mind), premium brand, affordable in comparison to BBA.

AITO M9 at 14th is the only model priced around 500K.

Domestic brands count 13 while foreign brands 7.

There are 2 Toyota models (over-priced) and 1 Nissan model, but no Honda.

There 3 VW models.

There is no pickup truck in the top 20.

Mid-size sedan and SUV are the mainstream models.

Plug-in hybrids are going mainstream to replace comparable ICE models. In my projection to year 2030, all consumer cars will be NEV, and plug-in hybrid to battery-only will be 50-50 split, while China is going to dominate the global plug-in hybrid markets. And when I say plug-in hybrid, I actually mean the China approach: an actual electric vehicle with an ICE engine as range-extender.

tesla is not even premium brand.
 

supercat

Major
Another day, another couple of articles talk about how China's auto industry turned the tables.

China Was Supposed To Be The Future. Now It's A 'Money Pit'​

The golden goose is no longer laying eggs for car companies. Also: EVs continue to outpace the rest of the market, but with a catch.
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How China Is Becoming a Money Pit for Foreign Automakers, in Charts​

Volkswagen, GM and other big brands are losing their grip on a once-lucrative market as Chinese consumers embrace homegrown electric vehicles
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BYD's battery EV Song Plus was launched with a starting price of $21,000.
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tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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Song with DMi 5.0 would be a killer model in the US car market. My family bought a RAV4 XLE, which cost more than a loaded Song. But I would take a loaded Song with DMi 5.0 over RAV4 on any given day.
it is a killer model anywhere at the price it's selling at right now.

Song Pro will probably be under 100k at some point.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
How about the quality of construction of the car? Are they using top materials when building?
Over time, Chinese car quality will surely be getting better and better as more and more domestic brands adopting super smart auto manufacturing plants like Huawei collaborated with Ceres and JAC, for the simple factor in quality control that less human touches mean better manufacturing quality. The old myth of superior Japanese manufacturing quality has already been shattered. Huawei has a few super smart manufacturing projects under construction with 5.5G and industrial LLM backend. AITO M9 and Beijing S9 are the 2 prime examples. If you follow their quality trajectory, you would get a real sense of what is going on inside MIC 2025.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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orders report, here is the one for BYD

BYD recorded 250K new orders in August, with 100K orders last week. The 818 offline event led to a slight increase in overall orders, with the Song L and Song PLUS models contributing more than 20K to the growth. The overall production and delivery capacity is accelerating rapidly, and it's important to note that sales data will begin to show a significant surge soon.
They are on pace for 400k new orders in China just for mass market brands
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Traditional auto vendors suck at writing software. This is why companies like GM or the Japanese majors simply cannot cope.
In Japan I think Sony or Panasonic would have had a better chance of making an EV than Toyota or Honda. The problem is Japan's compartmentalization of society and economy. The industry and the government won't allow you to enter someone else's turf i.e. making cars. Want to buy some auto parts from existing vendors? The parts manufacturers are part of the zaibatsu of the auto manufacturers and won't sell any to outside challengers.

As for why Toyota resisted to much at making the Prius a full blown plug-in hybrid it was because adding charging severely reduced the lifetime of the NiMH battery.
 
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