My observation is that China auto market is very different from US auto market.
(1) US is winner-takes-all capitalism while China is quasi-capitalism with deep localization.
Car eco-system and supply-chain is a hot area that every provincial governor is chasing. I don't see any feasibility that China would consolidate into less than 7 domestic auto brands. JVs will stay due to deep entrenched local interests. Tesla will remain the only fully-owned auto brand in China. I don't see Toyota has enough offer to get a similar deal in Shanghai as reported earlier for a Tesla-like Lexus deal.
(2) Toyota's 1st market is US. VW's 1st market is China.
Toyota cannot afford pissing of US for any perceivable reasons, while VW cannot afford losing China auto market.
(3) Outside US political echo chamber, the global auto industry is realizing how advanced China auto industry has become.
With the largest auto market and the leading EV eco-system, it is already like "if you cannot make in China auto market, your cars are not competitive enough".
US is not capitalism at all. State governors will go to great lengths to attract auto plants as they are seen as prestigious manufacturing and good vote-getters. They will go far to keep them with incentives and public opposition to labour unions, so actually it's national socialism.
Problem with the JVs is that they simply either have inferior or no cars at all to build with the preference of PHEVs and EVs
Honda: 0 EV, 0 PHEV
GM: EVs: Lyriq, Optiq, Equinox, Blazer, Hummer, Silverado, Escalade IQ. 0 PHEV
Toyota: bZ4x, bZ3 (BYD based car), Prius Prime PHEV, RAV4 (Wildlander) Prime PHEV
Nissan: Ariya EV, Sakura EV, Slyphy EREV
VWAG: ID-series, Q4, Q6/Macan, Taycan/e-Tron GT
*Not all of the above are available in China, just giving an idea of what could be built
For GM, only the smaller cars are relevant, but the Lyriq which has been on sale for quite some time has clearly not shown enough to management to believe that their pipeline is strong enough since they are already talking about strategic retreat.
Honda has nothing at all. Further cooperation with GM has been scrapped, however no models have been shown except for the Honda-Sony Afeela which is not a production ready concept (despite claims of being ready for 2025)
Nissan is in disarray due to the crumbling partnership with Renault. Perhaps the new Geely venture will help.
Toyota has great brand loyalty, but the pipeline is bare. Complicating this is that now they also have to develop China competitive smart features. They are trying (Huawei/Momenta partnership, BYD joint venture), but at the moment they don't have anything close. However, those moves are indicative of a company that still sees the value in the market relative to ROI.
China is the only market with such cutthroat EV competition. In other markets, Tesla is the clear leader in EVs for better or worse. Driving an EV from a conventional automaker, the dynamics are fine, quality is good, but there is no intelligence whatsoever. Some people have better experiences, but I don't personally feel its there.
Please could you explain to me what an actual hybrid drivetrain is? I presume that Western PHEVs have a different type of drivetrain? Thanks very much.
Western PHEVs do not have a different drive train, just note the below
Hybrid Drive train - electric motor and gas motor can both drive the car
Extended range EV (aka not a true hybrid) - only the electric motor drives the car, gas motor only provides electric power
EREVs are not generally available outside of China
A few other points
Toyota hybrids are "true hybrids" in the engineering sense, but with respect to everyday use, it is just a fuel efficiency boost when they lack the plug in part (they only have two PHEVs as noted above). PHEV should be able to run in full EV mode (no gas being used).
EREV is much simpler/cheaper to build, but the biggest disadvantage is terrible fuel efficiency if you need that aspect. European countries have those mandates for EVs in 2030, so there is no point to develop those. Might as well put in more batteries.
BYD has the economy of scale and production efficiency to deliver true PHEV at a price competitive or lower than ICE cars which is how they are tearing up these sales charts.