Yes，I think the nature of US tariffs aim at Chinese products are different from other countries. Other countries's goal are to protect local industry，whereas the US goals are mainly aimed at hammering Chinese advantageous industries，even if they are not competing with any local US industry.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
Yes，I think the nature of US tariffs aim at Chinese products are different from other countries. Other countries's goal are to protect local industry，whereas the US goals are mainly aimed at hammering Chinese advantageous industries，even if they are not competing with any local US industry.
If its European workers producing those cars, it doesn't really help the Chinese economy much though. China needs to move to higher value production in factories. Car production is such a product. China should be producing 30-40% of world's car in its factories once it reaches its full potential.
Chinese brands are also selling cars in Europe with a huge profit margin right now. They can probably still have the same price but swallow the tariff out of their profit margin. China needs to gain market share as quickly as possible and gain consumer recognition and trust. That will be the key battle.
Also, I think people are focusing too much on Electric Cars but ignoring China's massive quality improvement in Ice cars as well. They r gaining market share in many countries. They r just less known as a brand and probably lack the service/sales network. But the product is equally good.
Electricity is extremely expensive in Europe due to Russia sanctions. As long as oil remains cheap, Electric cars will likely remain a niche. China is unique because of its heavy focus on charging infrastracture. But I don't think Electric cars will see that level of adoption in the next 20-30 years in most countries. All the self-driving, touch screen stuff can be and will be easily implemented in Ice cars. That will take away the cool factor of electric cars. Then it will again be a decision about cost/benefit analysis of eletric car vs Ice car. And Electric car will lose that battle as long as oil remains cheap.
Ice car will be where China gains the big market share in my opinion. It will be the hidden dark horse that surprise people in a couple of years. Just like how Electric cars from China came into limelight only this year. Chinese Ice cars will also get into big limelight in the next few years.
Chinese brands are also selling cars in Europe with a huge profit margin right now. They can probably still have the same price but swallow the tariff out of their profit margin. China needs to gain market share as quickly as possible and gain consumer recognition and trust. That will be the key battle.
Also, I think people are focusing too much on Electric Cars but ignoring China's massive quality improvement in Ice cars as well. They r gaining market share in many countries. They r just less known as a brand and probably lack the service/sales network. But the product is equally good.
Electricity is extremely expensive in Europe due to Russia sanctions. As long as oil remains cheap, Electric cars will likely remain a niche. China is unique because of its heavy focus on charging infrastracture. But I don't think Electric cars will see that level of adoption in the next 20-30 years in most countries. All the self-driving, touch screen stuff can be and will be easily implemented in Ice cars. That will take away the cool factor of electric cars. Then it will again be a decision about cost/benefit analysis of eletric car vs Ice car. And Electric car will lose that battle as long as oil remains cheap.
Ice car will be where China gains the big market share in my opinion. It will be the hidden dark horse that surprise people in a couple of years. Just like how Electric cars from China came into limelight only this year. Chinese Ice cars will also get into big limelight in the next few years.
supercat
Major
Norway and Hungary disagree with EU's additional tariff on Chinese EVs.
CATL and BYD's 6C batteries, which can be charged in 1/6 hour, or 10 minutes, may be available later this year.
BYD's Qin L and Seal 06 are selling well.
BYD Qin L 2024:
BYD Seal 06 2024:
CATL and BYD's 6C batteries, which can be charged in 1/6 hour, or 10 minutes, may be available later this year.
BYD's Qin L and Seal 06 are selling well.
BYD Qin L 2024:
BYD Seal 06 2024:
The traditional ICE car will be obsolete in 10-15 years.
No one is going to make them, other than the Americans because they loss this EV war.
In China, the EV will replace these ICE cars.
In Western Europe, Canada, and some more Liberal US states, there are laws on the books that will outlaw the sale of new ICE cars by 2035.
The ICE car is going obsolete via market forces inside China, or legislated into history by Western countries.
The only people who will be driving new ICE cars in 20 years will be the developing world, who are always backwards and poor.
Somehow I doubt everyone in the developing world will be like that, because it would be cheaper to just go speak to the Chinese, and they will make you a deal on the cars, the electrical grid, the network to link everything together.
No one wants to be backwards and poor forever.
Just like how the developing world skipped land lines and cable/dsl and went straight to cellphones and wireless connectivity, I think must of it will skip ICE cars as well. Oil needs to be continuously imported, electricity only needs the generation capacity imported once. See Ethiopia banning ICE vehicles.
As for the EU tariffs, all in all pretty reasonable. China should still respond with equivalent tariffs on ICE vehicles, but that'll also be part of the negotiation to bring the tariffs down overall. Hopefully the two sides can settle down on something in the 10-15% range, giving a 20-25% overall tariffs. That should give manufacturers on both sides a chance to develop domestic manufacturing so long as the involved manufacturers are near in competitiveness. If a manufacturer can't overcome a 25% tariff + shipping costs then it doesn't really deserve protection.
I'm a bit concerned about the differential in tariffs between manufacturers. A 27% overall tariff on BYD is not that meaningful, and BYD is coming out of this as a big winner here. They're already the dominant NEV player, and this is gonna help cement their lead. I'd like to see more competition, but this seems to just make the rich richer. I thought the EU was gonna put a blanket tariff on Chinese vehicles, wonder why they didn't just do that.
The battle ground will be on the Global South, here the infrastructure is needed both for ICE and EV cars. IF the Chinese thru their BRI initiative were able to develop fast enough the needed infrastructure for EV then its game over for ICE within 15 years. That's the reason for the Collective West tariff on Chinese solar panels, they want to slow down the adaption for at least 30 years while they squeeze every ounce of legacy investment they have on fossil fuel.
Norway, Sweden and Germany are opposing such European tariffs. Half of all cars in Norway are already EVs, so they don't mind more EVs, even though they are still selling a lot of oil. Germany has shutdown their nuclear power plants, so they actually need more solar power.
The developing world has skipped land lines. But for China, they have installed a lot of fiber optic cables instead, for telephone, cable TV and also internet connection, Relying solely on wireless connectivity is dangerous, as you need an alternative network for communication during wartimes.
You overestimate the West, those sanctions were out of fear and hysteria nothing else. They have no idea as to what impacts they would have had. It was a blind shot.