New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

Facm337 said:

Good to see a fellow Australian following the EV space! Just want to say my thoughts on the Aussie EV market:
1. I think MG will shoot up the rankings in the following months, as the MG4 only started deliveries in the second half of August, but was already 5th best selling EV model for the month with 296 sold.
2. I'm a bit disappointed in BYD Atto3 numbers in the last 2 months (1000 and 800). The peak I believe was ~1500 sold in June, but maybe that was just the last of the backlog after launch. I'm optimistic though that BYD will make the top 10 sometime in 2024, with the dolphin starting deliveries this month, seal before end of this year, and the ute/medium SUV (likely song plus champion), which should all sell well if priced competitively
3. Agree regarding GWM Ora. There was a slight uptick in Aug after first deliveries in June (?July), so hopefully things will slowly pick up.

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To be honest I'm more interested in the rise of China as an automotive exporter rather than EVs specifically, but of course the two stories are deeply intertwined.

I agree that BYD's last couple of months have been disappointing. It is difficult to know what to read into that. It could be something as simple as a growing backlog associated with shipping delays. I think the expiry of Victoria's $3000 EV credit at the end of June accounts for some of the drop, keeping in mind that Victoria accounts for 25% of vehicle sales nationwide. As you note, June was BYD's best month to date in Australia and it makes sense that folks in Victoria would have brought prospective purchases forward to June in order to take advantage of the subsidy prior to its expiration.

I agree that BYD will continue to build in Australia but I don't think the expansion will be as rapid or dramatic as you hope. Atto 3 was definitely the right choice as the initial vehicle to offer in Australia as that small-ish SUV segment is so hot these days (Chery has done the same thing, launching to some success with only the Omoda 5 ICE small SUV). The flip-side is that adding additional vehicle types is not going to dramatically increase the potential customer base. Dolphin will face stiff competition from the base model MG4, while I suspect Seal will be more important for building the image of the brand than for direct sales volume. If BYD can double its 2023 sales volume in 2024, I think that would be a great success that would put it around #15-17 range, roughly where LDV and BMW are now.

AITO M7 new version getting launched today. Again, they are aggressive with pricing here. Huawei is really joining the price war

Leapmotor will soon launch C01, a PHEV with 316km pure electric range

Weekly registrations. BYD is sailing ahead of all competition. more than honda & toyota combined. When including Denza, it's more than 2x toyota
honda has been caught up by Geely

more from this. Song+/pro caught up to Model Y this week. Song family seems to be recovering. I do think they need a refresh for this family at some point
On sedan side, BYD again dominating with 4 models in top 10

BYD building up its FangchengBao sales network where luxury brand stores/service centers used to be. That's the profound changes taking place in China


BYD again leading sales for EVs in Thailand with about 1/3 of the market share through Atto 3 and Dolphin. I do think they are still suffering from not having enough stores.

China's dominance in Ga should allow them control VCSEL chips


and that's important in VCSEL Lidars

I recently read that Huawei uses VCSEL chips from Everbright Photonics for its Lidars

Everbright photonics spending 1B RMB to build a base that will produce Laser for Lidars and other things

Predictable, can't compete

Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1701859717184905260

Predictable, can't compete

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Looks like Americans really want the German Automakers to kick the bucket

my thoughts on the eu inquiry
entirely predictable

byd NCM battery exists????

NIO & SVOLT forming JV

Let's play guess game a little here. Assuming EV sales Jan-July is roughly 50% of annual sales in US:

(1) Tesla would sell 800K units in 2023.

(2) No other car brand would sell over 100K in 2023.

(3) No meaningful challenger to Tesla on the horizon.

Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1701859717184905260

Predictable, can't compete

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Time to blow open their doors with DongFengs and fentanyl.