New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

4Runner said:

Good points except on Twitter. I started browsing Twitter again after Musk took over, after almost 10-year hibernation. I don't think Tesla business or stock pricing has anything to do with Twitter. "Tesla had first mover advantage" this is it. And the barrier-to-entry in China EV auto market is not high due to Chinese EV supply chain and ICT proficiency. I think this is a secular trend instead of a correction.

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I think in terms of stock pricing there is a element that Elon is now running 3 massive companies, spaceX, Tesla and Twitter. Any normal person will struggle with just managing one, he's no superhuman so I honestly believe he should let somebody else run those companies so he can focus on one of them.

Now more than ever Tesla needs the full focus from its executive staff, it is no longer an option to cruise along as they have been since all facets of tech advantage they once had are being overcome, from self driving(Huawei/Baidu), design (nio/xpeng/BYD) to battery (BYD).

Qin+ DM-i was tested for efficiency without any battery charge. It achieved efficiency of 3.65L/100 km in fuel burn. This was achieved through an engine with 43.04% fuel efficiency. Really shows how fuel efficient BYD's PHEV technology is.

Interesting ads by BYD in Japan.
Encouraging for 1 month of free BYD EV usage to encourage people to hop on to the EV movement. Keep in mind that there is heavy media push by Toyota and other Japanese automakers to resist movement toward EVs. BYD will start deliveries to Japan a month from now.

BYD filing patents on making batteries safer and last more cycles. Mostly related to lithium metal anodes. I don't understand the chemistry behind this at all, so looks like I need to do a little reading from the links that Taylor posted.

Gotion's new ternary battery has high energy density and can be charged to 80% in 18 minutes.

Geely's Zeekr will file an IPO in the U.S.

tankphobia said:

I think in terms of stock pricing there is a element that Elon is now running 3 massive companies, spaceX, Tesla and Twitter.

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Seems pretty obvious that Musk is bored with Tesla. I suspect he will try to move away from Twitter sooner rather than later also and just focus on SpaceX+Neuralink. There were rumors that the guy running Tesla's China operations (Tom Zhang) was slated to become CEO but he's been downgraded in recent weeks so he seems to have fallen out of the running.

If/when Musk slowly moves away from day-to-day operations at Telsa, it will likely lead to a greater evaporation of whatever lead they still have globally except maybe the US.

In Europe, Telsa is slipping badly. The same story is in China. Model Y is the only really popular car they have anymore. The brutal EV fight in China has already produced BYD which is ahead of Tesla on batteries but still lag in overseas charging infra, although there are questions how much you even need that anymore. Public charging infra is much better today in Europe than 10 years ago when Tesla started their own proprietary charging solution.

I suspect this will help Chinese EV firms expanding overseas. The only trick is to survive domestically first.

mossen said:

Seems pretty obvious that Musk is bored with Tesla. I suspect he will try to move away from Twitter sooner rather than later also and just focus on SpaceX+Neuralink. There were rumors that the guy running Tesla's China operations (Tom Zhang) was slated to become CEO but he's been downgraded in recent weeks so he seems to have fallen out of the running.

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I think the rumour of Tom Zhang as Tesla CEO was always a step too far.
Even if you think he is CEO material, the logical first step was always Tesla Texas operations first

It certainly does look like demand for Tesla cars in China has collapsed.

Registrations for BYD cars are still at 50k in the last full week of December 2022, which is essentially BYD operating at full capacity like the previous week. That is consistent with BYD showing 3 month wait times for most of their vehicles.

In comparison, Tesla registrations are showing a downward trend in December to to 9k per week. If we look at Tesla wait times, they are all at 1-4 weeks, which means there is no backlog to work through. It takes a few weeks for a car to be produced and then delivered.

All of December should be a peak car delivery period in China for the following reasons:

1. The central government EV subsidies end this month
2. Chinese New Year is in January, so if you want and can buy a new Tesla, you should be buying one now
3. It's Tesla's financial year year, so they should want to sell as many cars as possible, instead of shutting down the factory early
4. We're still in the middle of a pandemic outbreak in China, so demand for cars is high overall

So Tesla China demand in China should be very low in January , and it's clear that Tesla has reached the limits of Chinese demand, at its current premium price levels

4Runner said:

On recent TLSA downward performance, my read is that the pricing finally is catching up with the reality. As a premium car manufacturing company, Tesla production capacity is probably ahead of its current total addressable market. The fixes or workarounds are not going to be friendly to its market cap.

As BYD expanding and exporting to more countries, Tesla needs model(s) around RMB200K to go volumes. But it will inevitably collide with Model 3 and Model Y. While BBA are trying to fix their EV business, Tesla will face more competition in premium segments. Tesla Shanghai may have some room to lower price. But a potential price war will put pressure on TSLA pricing.

As in ICE segments, low price ranges will face cut-throat competition from the Chinese brands, while high price ranges will face increasing competition from BBA. I don't see potential new tricks that could get TSLA back to its past glory.

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TSLA stock price will continue to go down. As Chinese makers proliferate their gasoline cars and EVs worldwide, Japanese car brands will be wiped out in China and beyond.

AndrewS said:

I think the rumour of Tom Zhang as Tesla CEO was always a step too far.
Even if you think he is CEO material, the logical first step was always Tesla Texas operations first

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A few weeks ago Tom was in Fresno.
Seems he's touring to increase productivity.

tankphobia said:

Tesla had first mover advantage, but other auto makers are already catching up and despite all that we are seeing staggering little in terms of development and innovation from Tesla, still only 4 car models and cyber truck/electric semi nowhere to be seen.

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Yes, you've should have a lot of models to cover every segment of the market.
I get a figure of at least 26 different models of pure-electric car or pickup truck

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In terms of cars:

For an entry-level car brand, here is what I think they need:

Size-wise: Micro, Mini, Small, Medium, Large, X-Large
From Small upwards, these can come in Sedan or SUV versions
Then the Large and X-Large could come in MPV versions

That's 12 different models already for an entry-level brand

For the premium car brand, my guess is that 10 vehicles would be need, as Micro and Mini size cars don't really work as a premium car.

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Then in terms of pickup trucks, it would need 4 sizes: Small, Medium, Large, X-Large
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