New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

GodRektsNoobs said:

While I appreciate your supporting for rising Asian car manufacturers, please keep in mind that it took 4 decades for Chinese and Koreans to even the odds with established players. And they are practically the only success stories of newly industrialized nations completing with established powers in the global car market. Vietnam barely has an automotive industry, and IMO there is no way in hell they could do in 10 years what China and Korea did in 40 unless they are superhumans.

Not to mention the fact that Vinfast is merely a side project of Vingroup, which is heavily focused on real estate. Real estate companies make for terrible automakers, judging from what we've all seen in China and even Japan. They may have a lot of cash, but they are just too comfortable with making easy money than to put their head down to work on R&D.

Again, I could be completely wrong. Somehow Vietnamese could be superhumans, and Vingroup could resist their temptation for easy money to work on actual engineering. But that's unlikely IMO.

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tphuang said:

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BYD interview here with ManGu magazine about their foray into Thailand. Their factory will start operation in 2024. The main challenge in Thailand and ASEAN countries is the dominance of Japanese cars. BYD clearly thinks that it has many tech advantages in NEVs and are confident they can meet the need of customers. Again, this is why the Japanese market is really important. It raises BYD's profile and brand awareness in China and rest of the world (but especially in ASEAN countries where Japanese cars dominate).

Also talked about skyshuttle in there. Another area that BYD is trying to sell around the world. At some point, China will gain the reputation of the most technologically advanced country in Asia. Unfortunately, most people still think that of Japan, so it will take some time. The Japanese industries are in serious trouble here.

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4Runner said:

I have a slightly different take on the "fake" news that Tesla is planning to export to US, as Elon Musk already denied in Twitter.

Given Tesla is said to approach 95% localization and historical productivity of large manufacturing operations in the Shanghai region, I can bet Tesla Shanghai has the highest productivity and the highest gross margin in its global operations. Given also that BYD is breathing on its neck and will most likely surpass Tesla in global EV sales ranking, it is only logical that Tesla is trying to expand its China market share with whatever it takes. As long as Tesla is profitable in its Shanghai operation, I would do whatever it takes to grab market share.

Besides that, those who already bought 2nd or 3rd BBA in China are not likely switching to Tesla right now. With Tesla considered to be in the premium segment, its million/year output is too much for locals to consume. Either it finds more export room, or it expands local market share.

For the moment, I don't think this is a bad thing for Tesla. Rather, this is lethal to the survival of XPeng, Li, Nio and competing EV models from BBA.

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tphuang said:

BYD's Shenzhen Pingshan skyshuttle will start commercial operation on Dec 28th.

Several other skyshuttle lines Changsha, Shenzhen, Xi'an and Guiyang are under construction right now.

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同时，这条线路的设计最高时速能够达到80km/h，并同时具有噪音低、安全性高、转弯半径小等特点，优势明显。

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ansy1968 said:

It's all about corporate culture, They have a monopolistic thinking and attitude cause they were protected domestically. With no competition allowed and a small market then your business strategy is base on local thinking instead of having an international outlook. The Chinese are right to have TESLA come in with all the perks to spice up the competition and it works, they have the foresight because they believed that the local manufacturer are primed for the big time and need a further push to see which among them are ready.

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4Runner said:

On recent TLSA downward performance, my read is that the pricing finally is catching up with the reality. As a premium car manufacturing company, Tesla production capacity is probably ahead of its current total addressable market. The fixes or workarounds are not going to be friendly to its market cap.

As BYD expanding and exporting to more countries, Tesla needs model(s) around RMB200K to go volumes. But it will inevitably collide with Model 3 and Model Y. While BBA are trying to fix their EV business, Tesla will face more competition in premium segments. Tesla Shanghai may have some room to lower price. But a potential price war will put pressure on TSLA pricing.

As in ICE segments, low price ranges will face cut-throat competition from the Chinese brands, while high price ranges will face increasing competition from BBA. I don't see potential new tricks that could get TSLA back to its past glory.

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tankphobia said:

Tesla had first mover advantage, but other auto makers are already catching up and despite all that we are seeing staggering little in terms of development and innovation from Tesla, still only 4 car models and cyber truck/electric semi nowhere to be seen.

Their CEO would rather complain about woke people on twitter rather than actually run his auto company, you can see the stock price nosedive as a result and the worst part is it was all so avoidable if he had just kept his head down and focus on delivering a good product from Tesla.

Now new start EV firms from China are able to match Tesla in quality and price, while also rapidly iterating their designs dependent on the market.

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