New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang · Dec 2, 2022

November sales out for BYD

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Not as large of a jump as one might expect. I think this is due to delivery difficulties from covid related restrictions.

Their sales and accomplishment from November. 28320 Qin family, 31786 Han family, 20020 Tang family, 64145 Song family, 29402 Yuan family, 15536 Seal, 26063 Dolphin, 6032 Frigate 05 and 572 E Series

184d292a6b0657e3fe92e734.jpeg!custom.jpg

tphuang · Dec 2, 2022

BYD displaying 7 models at Bangkok Motor show

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598571668191838208

hopefully all of this will be on sale in ASEAN countries over the next year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598661021773844480

Denza D9, 415k average price and 3451 sales. Looking to reach 7000 sales in December.

So if we look at the numbers. Song is definitely the dominant family for sales. Seal sales hasn't affected Han family at all. Dolphin continues to increase. Tang family also hit 20k. The average sales price will continue to increase as they sell more of these higher end mass market models.

tphuang · Dec 2, 2022

原因不只是比亚迪进度够快，也是因为对于合资品牌来说，以价换量最后一道防线也快到极限了。今天在西部年度大会也说了，产品力是一切的核心，价格是销量的最后一道防线，熬到最后厂家和经销商都会放弃抵抗。这也是为什么从10月开始听到渠道倒闭最多的是大众和日产，因为他们护城河最浅，经销商扛不住了。而原来在大众疯狂砍价还不够爽的客户，到了比亚迪愿意老老实实的原价买了。

所以比亚迪和大众从来不是赛马的关系，是此消彼长。这个问题不只是大众，甚至大众还有希望，因为至少还有ID系列，还愿意改革渠道。两田实际上最严重，因为两田从产品力到销售渠道全面躺平，现在日系还好看的原因只是因为价格护城河相对厚一点。

commentary from a popular Weibo account on BYD finally becoming the highest selling brand in China. Basically, legacy JVs have been using deals/price cuts to achieve sales. We are at the point where automaker and dealer can no longer take it. From October, all the dealer channel that closed down are from Japanese and VW. Customers that are wiling to pay for full price at BYD dealership won't even buy deeply discounted VW cars.

Even so, VW still has hope with ID series. Toyota/Honda are in the most trouble. From product to sales channel, everything they have is flat. They are just using pricing cuts to keep sales up.

4Runner · Dec 2, 2022

tphuang said:
commentary from a popular Weibo account on BYD finally becoming the highest selling brand in China. Basically, legacy JVs have been using deals/price cuts to achieve sales. We are at the point where automaker and dealer can no longer take it. From October, all the dealer channel that closed down are from Japanese and VW. Customers that are wiling to pay for full price at BYD dealership won't even buy deeply discounted VW cars.

Even so, VW still has hope with ID series. Toyota/Honda are in the most trouble. From product to sales channel, everything they have is flat. They are just using pricing cuts to keep sales up.

This is happening faster than I expected. From this angle, Chinese car consumers are maturing faster than I thought. Reputation for reliability is the only thing left for Toyota and Honda. Personally I have been driving Honda/Toyota for 30 years for the same reason. But my next car is most likely an EV, particularly definitely is BYD is available in the US market. Now I am crossing my fingers if US federal government can prevent GM/Ford from going down a similar path. We may see a global trade war out of this ICE2EV transition.

supercat · Dec 2, 2022

Another day, another sodium battery maker:

World's first GWh-class sodium-ion battery production line sees first product off line
...
Hina Battery's current sodium-ion battery has an energy density of 145 Wh/kg and a cycle life of 4,500 cycles, according to its website.

The company plans to further increase the energy density of sodium-ion batteries to 180-200 Wh/kg and increase the cycle life to 8,000-10,000 cycles.

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AndrewS · Dec 2, 2022

4Runner said:
This is happening faster than I expected. From this angle, Chinese car consumers are maturing faster than I thought. Reputation for reliability is the only thing left for Toyota and Honda. Personally I have been driving Honda/Toyota for 30 years for the same reason. But my next car is most likely an EV, particularly definitely is BYD is available in the US market. Now I am crossing my fingers if US federal government can prevent GM/Ford from going down a similar path. We may see a global trade war out of this ICE2EV transition.

I'm going with the following NEV sales figures in China

45-50% in Dec 2023
80% by 2026

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For historical comparison, the transition to electric buses took 5 years in China. I reckon we're roughly at Year 2 for electric cars

"Once it was clear that electric buses were a viable option, sales went from 4,300 in 2013 to over 100,000 in 2018. There are now nearly 700,000 electric buses on the road there — around 30% of the fleet — and those e-buses are displacing about 230,000 barrels per day of oil demand."

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tphuang · Dec 2, 2022

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my own thought about this is that the high energy cost is killing manufacturing in Europe (especially Germany). On top of that, entire supply chain in Germany is getting destroyed. Cars manufactured in China will rely on Chinese made batteries, electric motor, chips and autonomous driving features and such. It's hard to see European gov't not allowing German companies to export cars made in China back to their own country.

tphuang · Dec 2, 2022

This is from GM of Denza's sales division

1、腾势D9在11月首月销量3451辆，12月份交付目标7000+，有机会占据30万以上MPV市场第一的位置。
2、车型均价达到41.5万元。
3、50%是BBA用户增购或置换；20%是豪华MPV燃油车置换；15%是比亚迪客户换购或增购；15%是本来想选择SUV的客户选择腾势D9。

Average price 415k RMB. Goal is 7000+ delivery in December. Has a chance to be #1 in the 300k+ market.
50% are existing BBA customers. 20% are luxury ICE MPV switching over, 15% are existing BYD customers, 15% are customers that wanted to select SUVs.

tphuang · Dec 3, 2022

tremendous success for BYD in Thailand so far. 7061 orders in November and 1502 deliveries. Will aim for 4000 deliveries in December.

BYD Atto 3 will go on market in Malaysia in 7 days.

Bellum_Romanum · Dec 3, 2022

Pretty decent review on BYD Seal that will soon be launching in countries like Australia among others

New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

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