New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
It will never beat Japan in export sales — per capita.
okay, here is someone posting the Nuro video working with BYD.
Changzhou has produced 115k cars since production started in January. They expect to hit 200k by the end of the year, hitting 30k in December. It is currently producing Yuan+ and Seal. I believe they will be switching to mostly Seal by the end of the year. With first 2 phases, the original goal was 400k a year. I think that phase 2 wasn't suppose to kick in until 2023, it's surprising they are already at 30k a month (which is 360k a year). It's quite likely imo they can hit 500k by the time phase 2 is over. There is also a phase 3. Realistically, 1 million a year at Changzhou should be quite doable once stage 3 fully ramps up.
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If Phase 2 isn't finished and there is also a Phase 3, is there any point in phasing out Yuan Plus production this year? It just seems like unnecessary disruption given the backlog of orders.
If China matched Japan in terms of per capita car sales, that would mean exports of 40 million cars per year.
@$20K each, that would be another $800 Billion in exports
China accounts for 30 million cars, and there are another 50 million cars sold outside of China.
There's no way China will be able to match Japan in terms of exports, as the currency imbalances would be tremendous and also means the auto industry in every country is wiped out.
There probably isn't even the market to absorb that many cars to begin with. 40 million NEVs would also require multiple times the current world rare earth output.