New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang said:

Don't have the exact figures. They build a lot of things here now. buses, school bus, trucks, refuse trucks, forklift...

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its largest single order is of 130 buses. i dont think this volume justify factory in place like California. just the management salaries will be huge to manage few hundred employees to keep them productive.

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Among the company’s clients is Antelope Valley Transit Authority (ATVA), which become the first all-electric, zero-emissions transit agency in North America. Los Angeles Department of Transportation made history in 2020, with an

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, making it the largest single order of battery-electric buses to date in the U.S.

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The second order is of Trucks and still prior to it they sold 200. i am sure they can get orders but these are not orders for managing a factory.

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This type of order is a big win for BYD, which already sold over 200 trucks in the US and more than 10,000 globally (the vast majority in China).

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vincent said:

Xiaomi and BBK didn’t do diligence in India, look what happened to them.

Even if CATL’s Mexico factory can no longer serve the American market, they still own the assets and serve other markets.

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They still rule and are the kings of smartphone market in Jai Hind land regardless of how many times Jai Hind bash those brands using the products the very companies they supposedly hate. That's Jai Hind mentality for you.

vincent said:

Xiaomi and BBK didn’t do diligence in India, look what happened to them.

Even if CATL’s Mexico factory can no longer serve the American market, they still own the assets and serve other markets.

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Well, America is not India. And Xiaomi has made many years of high profits in the Indian market. It continues to have 24% market share in India. So, I would say Xiaomi is doing great.

CATL's Mexico factory is useless if it's not serving the American market. The entire point of having a factory there is to serve Ford and Tesla. Who else could that factory serve? They are going to have 600 GWh of factories in China by 2026. There is no shortage of capacity for other markets. You are never going to produce batteries as cheaply in Mexico as you would in China.

pmc said:

its largest single order is of 130 buses. i dont think this volume justify factory in place like California. just the management salaries will be huge to manage few hundred employees to keep them productive.

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hmm, their biggest order is the 200 truck order that I just posted. They open up bus factories around the world for much lower order count than that. By all indication, their plant in Lancaster is running out of parking space from so many orders.

Keep in mind that when they first started to sell buses in Cali, there were some well documented issues with their buses. They were only able to keep getting orders because they had a local plant and employed union labour in California. And now, they worked through all those issues with local bus agencies and are getting orders from all over the place. BYD's Lancaster plants is one of the good stories of Chinese companies in America.

Choose the US only for meaningful competitive cost advantage or if there is no Mexico as part of the USMCA, due to the US containment policy. You need to take into account contingencies. Look what happened to semiconductors.

tphuang said:

Companies can't plan their futures based on possibility of a war. If there is a war that breaks out, the American auto market will no longer be available to Chinese automaker and battery makers. So, a plant in Mexico would be just as useless as a plant in America in the case.

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That is not correct. A CATL plant in the US would be subject to confiscation and disruptions.

But Mexico would almost certainly be neutral, so a CATL plant in Mexico would find it easier to operate and also export its production to non-US countries as an alternative. If there isn't that much CATL production in Mexico, then it's easy to redirect to other countries. If there is a lot of CATL production in Mexico, then Ford and Tesla will scream at any disruptions to this supply.

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And Chinese companies are making investment decisions and supplier decisions based on the US imposing sanctions - whether due to a war or just a more hostile US-China relationship. This is fueling the rise of Chinese technology companies everywhere in critical supply chains, even if current Chinese tech is not as good or more expensive. Chinese companies are doing this because:

a) they can't take the risk of the US imposing tech sanctions
b) they expect to these Chinese suppliers to eventually develop better technology and also provide lower prices than US tech. That is a reasonable assumption given the lower R&D cost base in China and larger scale available in the Chinese market

AndrewS said:

That is not correct. A CATL plant in the US would be subject to confiscation and disruptions.

But Mexico would almost certainly be neutral, so a CATL plant in Mexico would find it easier to operate and also export its production to non-US countries as an alternative. If there isn't that much CATL production in Mexico, then its easy to redirect to other countries. If there is a lot of CATL production in Mexico, then Ford and Tesla will scream at any disruptions.

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Unless there is a war, why would US gov't confiscate or disrupt CATL plant? That's not going to happen.

If there is a war, Mexican plant is done. Even if Mexican gov't doesn't confiscate it, there won't be any customers.

AndrewS said:

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And Chinese companies are making investment decisions and supplier decisions based on the US imposing sanctions on them - whether due to a war or just a more hostile US-China relationship. This is fueling the rise of Chinese technology companies everywhere in critical supply chains, even if current Chinese tech is not as good or more expensive. Chinese companies are doing this because:

a) they can't take the risk of the US imposing tech sanctions
b) they expect to these Chinese suppliers to eventually develop better technology and also provide lower prices than US tech. That is a reasonable assumption given the lower R&D cost base in China and larger scale available in the Chinese market

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Any US state would welcome Chinese manufacturers there as long as the 2 countries are not at war and have ongoing relationship. Just look at how well BYD is treated.

The US gov't will never hurt its own manufacturing just to help Mexican manufacturing. If US gov't were to decide to confiscate CATL factory, do you think they would allow any US automakers to use Chinese batteries from Mexico?

tphuang said:

Unless there is a war, why would US gov't confiscate or disrupt CATL plant? That's not going to happen.

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It doesn't have to be the US government. It can be just a bunch of angry American truckers or farmers blocking the CATL plant.

tphuang said:

If there is a war, Mexican plant is done. Even if Mexican gov't doesn't confiscate it, there won't be any customers.

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Based on Ukraine, we can see that the majority of the world hasn't imposed sanctions.

CATL does have customers all over the world, so it can redirect battery deliveries to other countries.
Think about it. CATL does supply batteries from China to Europe. These supplies will be disrupted in the event of a war.
But a Mexico plant could continue to operate and produce batteries for Europe instead.

We could also see a situation where Tesla's Shanghai plant can't export cars anymore from China to Europe and the rest of the world.
So Tesla's response should be to ramp up European production. And Tesla should be happy enough to accumulate a stockpile of CATL batteries made in Mexico whilst ramping up, because Tesla knows there will be a huge shortage of battery supply in the future.

tphuang said:

Any US state would welcome Chinese manufacturers there as long as the 2 countries are not at war and have ongoing relationship. Just look at how well BYD is treated.

The US gov't will never hurt its own manufacturing just to help Mexican manufacturing. If US gov't were to decide to confiscate CATL factory, do you think they would allow any US automakers to use Chinese batteries from Mexico?

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You do realise that BYD is being singled out by the US government. There is a ban on Chinese buses receiving federal subsidies which even affects the BYD factory in the USA

U.S. funding ban for Chinese buses arrives, disrupting transition to electric

tphuang said:

hmm, their biggest order is the 200 truck order that I just posted. They open up bus factories around the world for much lower order count than that. By all indication, their plant in Lancaster is running out of parking space from so many orders.

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California is not rest of the world. it has its own cost of manufacturing. this volume is too small. Los Angeles is not even bus friendly city and most US cities will not be able to afford it. suburbia people can drive. the same is true with wealthy school districts.
200 truck they got in 2022. what is production rate in 2022?

10 billion dollar order for 50,000 buses. Not sure whether Chinese manufacturers will be allowed to bid given how petty jaihinds can get

AndrewS said:

It doesn't have to be the US government. It can be just a bunch of angry American truckers or farmers blocking the CATL plant.

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Anytime you bring manufacturing jobs to America, America is happy.

AndrewS said:

Based on Ukraine, we can see that the majority of the world hasn't imposed sanctions.

CATL does have customers all over the world, so it can redirect battery deliveries to other countries.
Think about it. CATL does supply batteries from China to Europe. These supplies will be disrupted in the event of a war.
But a Mexico plant could continue to operate and produce batteries for Europe instead.

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no, it would just supply them from their European plants. They already have a plant in Germany and will build another in Poland.

AndrewS said:

We could also see a situation where Tesla's Shanghai plant can't export cars anymore from China to Europe and the rest of the world.
So Tesla's response should be to ramp up European production. And Tesla should be happy enough to accumulate a stockpile of CATL batteries made in Mexico whilst ramping up, because Tesla knows there will be a huge shortage of battery supply in the future.

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There are going to be so much lithium battery production in China that I'm pretty sure Tesla will have no problem with battery supply. If CATL gets cut off by US, you can bet Tesla will get cut off by China

AndrewS said:

You do realise that BYD is being singled out by the US government. There is a ban on Chinese buses receiving federal subsidies which even affects the BYD factory in the USA

U.S. funding ban for Chinese buses arrives, disrupting transition to electric

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Yes, but if you read my post on its Lancaster operation, it has secured a lot of Californian contract due to its relationship with the state.

California is not rest of the world. it has its own cost of manufacturing. this volume is too small. Los Angeles is not even bus friendly city and most US cities will not be able to afford it. suburbia people can drive. the same is true with wealthy school districts.

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200 truck they got in 2022. what is production rate in 2022?

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US is still a huge bus market (I believe 14k). The transition to EV has just started. California is a good market for BYD to get its toes wet in the US market. The Lancaster/California relationship has been very good so far. The next phase with by NYC/NJ + Washington/Oregon and Hawaii. States like that.

hit 500 bus in America in 2021

I have no idea what their production rate is in 2022, but the June pictures from factory show very overcrowded parking space. I think there is a lot of potential here for BYD product. I would be surprised if they do not expand their US factory footprint in the next 10 years.

10 billion dollar order for 50,000 buses. Not sure whether Chinese manufacturers will be allowed to bid given how petty jaihinds can get

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Keep in mind that BYD and it's local partner Olectra already won an order for 2100 buses earlier this year