New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
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escobar
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Russia is dedicated to an autarkic (self sufficient) economy. By developing such low electronic but highly robust, reliable, rugged and simple vehicles, they could supply it to the likes of Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the poorer countries of Central Asia and the Middle East.
Pretty sure Russia has tons of imported used cars. The Russian Far East is crawling with JDMs.
I should add that domestic Russian SUV and off road capable pickups have a dual use capability. For example UAZ pickups are used both by the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
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But ICE cars are not robust, reliable or rugged.
However, these are inherent characteristics of electric cars which are just batteries plus a motor.
You could even argue that electric cars (even with all the electronics) are actually simpler than ICE cars which have thousands of complex mechanical components.
And the lack of infotainment system and app store will be a deal breaker for car buyers
There are more encouraging signs for Chinese EVs. Tax exemptions + more chargers + lower charging fees are all great things.
Huawei is all in on NEVs. It has asked for ICE cars to be eliminated as soon as possible. Note that the newly launched AITO M7 has already received 50,000 pre-orders. Also, it is burning through money in its auto division. This is a hard business. Huawei has been doing a lot of development and not a lot of deliveries thus far. But with the deep pocket and talent they have, I think Huawei as BYD's main competitor in China.
Wuling mini EVs did really well in June. Almost 50k orders by itself!
As a whole, GM is getting slaughtered in China
Not a surprise when you see this. How can you compete in China without EV deliveries?
At this point, I think VW is much further ahead than Ford and Ford is further ahead than GM. I think at least the Germans can read the tea leafs and are moving more aggressively.
BYD Seal is officially launched into market on July 18th. Already has over 110k pre-orders
After the delay announcement last week, it looks like BYD is at least doing a better job of communicating delays to Australian customers. 3000 might not sound like a lot in China, but it's a huge number for Australia. 10 shipments are needed to deliver 3000 cars.
Also, someone did an update on current BYD production plans (that we already know about). There maybe more phases and factory locations announced in the next year, but I think it's not impossible to see production run rate to be at 6 to 7 million a year by second half of 2024 (500k a month).
Hefei (all 3 phases) 1.32 million
Zhengzhou (2 phases) 1 million
Xi'an (3 phases) 1 million
Changsha (3 phases) 1 million
Shenzhen (multiple phases) currently announced 350k, but there is also the 600k parts plant and final assembly plant coming up like to produce 600k a year. So likely 1million
Changzhou (3 phases) 600k
Jinan (1 phase) 300k - this is scheduled to start production sometimes this year. This number is likely to increase once they sign additional phases.
Fuzhou (2 phases) 350k - second phase not expected to start until 2024. First phase just kicked off in April
Xiangyang - Unknown
Nanning - Unknown
So about 6.5 million without Xiangyang and Nanning. Probably 7 million include those 2. And this does not include oversea plants, which is likely not that huge over the next couple of years.
Just to give an example of how fast BYD is producing. In May, Xi'an factory alone produced 66k cars. From Jan-May, 280k were produced. Quite insane when phase 1/2 of Xi'an is only suppose to produce 600k a year. Phase 3 of Xi'an is entering production in August. That will make it capable of producing 1 million a year.
Wang Chuanfu made a point to say that auto industry is not like other industry, because so much of the economy is dependent on auto industry. so, what they are doing here is quite vital in bringing production to a lot of 2nd/3rd and maybe even 4th tier cities. Even their home base of Shenzhen isn't getting that much production due to its higher costs.
Huawei is all in on NEVs. It has asked for ICE cars to be eliminated as soon as possible. Note that the newly launched AITO M7 has already received 50,000 pre-orders. Also, it is burning through money in its auto division. This is a hard business. Huawei has been doing a lot of development and not a lot of deliveries thus far. But with the deep pocket and talent they have, I think Huawei as BYD's main competitor in China.
Wuling mini EVs did really well in June. Almost 50k orders by itself!
As a whole, GM is getting slaughtered in China
Not a surprise when you see this. How can you compete in China without EV deliveries?
At this point, I think VW is much further ahead than Ford and Ford is further ahead than GM. I think at least the Germans can read the tea leafs and are moving more aggressively.
BYD Seal is officially launched into market on July 18th. Already has over 110k pre-orders
After the delay announcement last week, it looks like BYD is at least doing a better job of communicating delays to Australian customers. 3000 might not sound like a lot in China, but it's a huge number for Australia. 10 shipments are needed to deliver 3000 cars.
Also, someone did an update on current BYD production plans (that we already know about). There maybe more phases and factory locations announced in the next year, but I think it's not impossible to see production run rate to be at 6 to 7 million a year by second half of 2024 (500k a month).
Hefei (all 3 phases) 1.32 million
Zhengzhou (2 phases) 1 million
Xi'an (3 phases) 1 million
Changsha (3 phases) 1 million
Shenzhen (multiple phases) currently announced 350k, but there is also the 600k parts plant and final assembly plant coming up like to produce 600k a year. So likely 1million
Changzhou (3 phases) 600k
Jinan (1 phase) 300k - this is scheduled to start production sometimes this year. This number is likely to increase once they sign additional phases.
Fuzhou (2 phases) 350k - second phase not expected to start until 2024. First phase just kicked off in April
Xiangyang - Unknown
Nanning - Unknown
So about 6.5 million without Xiangyang and Nanning. Probably 7 million include those 2. And this does not include oversea plants, which is likely not that huge over the next couple of years.
Just to give an example of how fast BYD is producing. In May, Xi'an factory alone produced 66k cars. From Jan-May, 280k were produced. Quite insane when phase 1/2 of Xi'an is only suppose to produce 600k a year. Phase 3 of Xi'an is entering production in August. That will make it capable of producing 1 million a year.
Wang Chuanfu made a point to say that auto industry is not like other industry, because so much of the economy is dependent on auto industry. so, what they are doing here is quite vital in bringing production to a lot of 2nd/3rd and maybe even 4th tier cities. Even their home base of Shenzhen isn't getting that much production due to its higher costs.
escobar
Brigadier
VW using CN Gotion tech for its first battery factory.
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I think this is even more telling.
His reason for Indian Evs eating Tesla's lunch and possibly world domination is by blocking China from eating India's lunch .
He wrote:
" India’s government made absolutely the right decision in locking out the Chinese-made Teslas, because India is developing a new generation of electric vehicles, built for the masses, which could dominate global markets".
Booo!! Lol
GM is definitely ahead of Ford, on par with VW, and in some respects ahead software-wise.
Ford traded future ramp up and expansion for time to market.
Mustang Mach-E is still based on ICE platform, it can never be optimized in the same way as a purpose built EV platform.
GM could have done this with Volt, but they decided to throw it out. Ground up EV platform is the only way to go.
GM is planning to rapidly iterate the Ultium-based platforms/models quickly through all brands
It is not easy to build a ground up modular EV platform, you rush like Toyota did with e-TNGA and you end up with a dud with the wheels falling off.
So far outside of China you basically have for the mass-market, only Hyundai Group E-GMP and VW Group MEB have been successfully deployed with multiple models.