New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
I never thought I see the day when China export more car than Japan. But it happened now ! unbelievable but true. Automobile industry is the pillar industry of western nation supporting many ancillary industries like steel, glass, oil, plastic, machinery and service industry like auto repair, auto shop etc. With the coming revolution in BEV(Battery electric vehicle) which will be cheaper, less maintenance(less parts), no need for oil and gas. It will destroy the foundation of the prosperity of many western countries! Even now you can buy EV for les than $10,000. All it need is opening and they might have one with ever increasing gasoline price due to sanction, Chinese EV maker might have their once in hundred year opportunity to crack the western market. Just like the Japanese did after oil embargo of 1978. I witness the day of long gas line and lemon American car that change little other than chrome grille and leather interior. But gas guzzler and here come the nifty and thrifty sardine box made in Japan.

Western power didn't think strategically other than satisfying their hubris with all the sanction that they levy on Russia They in advertently destroying the foundation of their prosperity and provide opening for China to dominate one of the few pillar industry that they still have! that is what you got if you have more lawyer type running the country! They put lofty abstract ideal above practicality!
This is unthinkable because we grew up in an environment that made us believe so. My learning of Chinese history tells me that, comparing last 70 years of governance between China and its major competitors, China has been enjoying a relatively enlightened and peaceful development in every aspect of its society. Then you have things like Huawei, BYD, Alibaba, Tencent, infrastructure, E-Commerce, 5G, AI and EV.

Even though I was always bitching about failure of ICE car industry in China. But on balance, if it were not the fiasco of developing China ICE car industry, the central government would not have been forced to find a way to "弯道超车". In the meantime, the existing ICE power houses have been holding their cards close to their chest and milking the China car market for their fortune. Now that selfish short-sightedness also helps push the Chinese car industrial policies toward "弯道超车". With market size, industrial base and government incentives, capitalists jumped with both feet plus both hands. And we seeing the results of the combination of those factors evolving since the first Santana rolled off the Shanghai assembly line in 1983. It is 40 years in the making.

Now let's Segway to the semiconductor industry. I think it is repeating the story line. China may not be able to surpass the current semi-fab power houses. But when China is even approaching or close to their level, the game would be completely over. Same country, same people, same market, same government, similar story. Now the question is time, i.e., how much time it would take for China to crack the pinnacle of the modern high-tech manufacturing.

After 70 years of peaceful development, unthinkable becomes possible and probably. EV is not going to be the last story of "弯道超车" or "换道超车". The best strategy for US today is to bind China into a duopoly with a Pacific Charter, before it gets too late. In the grand scheme of things in the next 20 years or so, things like Taiwan or even 9-dashed-line is trivial to what is happening in the big picture. US can "lose" Taiwan or 9-dashed-line and life goes on. But US cannot afford losing competitiveness in high-tech eco-system. There is no comparison for the greater good of the American public.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Nice video about Byd
Thanks for watching our video; China's BYD NEW Insane Masterplan Will CRUSH The Entire Electric Car Industry! With 20 people and a $300,000 start-up investment, BYD, which stands for "Build Your Dreams," was established in 1995 as a producer of cell phone batteries. In less than 5 years, it has become the largest producer of rechargeable batteries for mobile phones , supplying Nokia and other significant mobile phone manufacturers. BYD used its expertise in batteries to build hybrid and all-electric vehicles after purchasing a failing automaker in 2005. Being the largest manufacturer of rechargeable batteries in the world3, BYD has been able to make EVs that are more cost-effective and can go farther than most of its rival EV producers. This is possible because of the company's vertical integration. The Chinese manufacturer is able to take advantage of its in-house battery technology, which enables far lower production costs than rivals. As Chinese electric cars are poised to potentially dominate the worldwide sector, the manufacturer is focusing on other international markets.
 

supercat

Major
World’s Biggest Exporters of Cars by Value
  1. Germany: US$139.1 billion (19.6% of total exported cars)
  2. Japan: $85.6 billion (12%)
  3. United States: $54.7 billion (7.7%)
  4. South Korea: $44.3 billion (6.2%)
  5. Mexico: $39.9 billion (5.6%)
  6. Spain: $33.9 billion (4.8%)
  7. Belgium: $31.8 billion (4.5%)
  8. United Kingdom: $30.2 billion (4.2%)
  9. Canada: $29.2 billion (4.1%)
  10. Slovakia: $26.8 billion (3.8%)
  11. Czech Republic: $23.4 billion (3.3%)
  12. China: $22.4 billion (3.2%)
  13. France: $20.6 billion (2.9%)
  14. Italy: $16.2 billion (2.3%)
  15. Sweden: $12.6 billion (1.8%)
The 5 leading exporters of cars during 2021 were Germany, Japan, United States of America, South Korea and Mexico. By value, that quintet of most lucrative automotive exporters generated over half (51.2%) of globally exported cars for 2021. Applying a continental lens, European countries sold the highest dollar value worth of cars exported during 2021 with shipments totaling $387.5 billion or 54.5% of international car sales. In second place were suppliers in Asia at 26% followed by North American automobile exporters at 17.4%.

Among the top exporters, the fastest-growing cars exporters since 2020 were: mainland China (up 125.3%), South Korea (up 24.4%), United States of America (up 19%) and the United Kingdom (up 13.7%).

Countries Generating Biggest Surpluses from Global Trade of Cars

  1. Japan: US$74 billion (net export surplus up 4.6% since 2020)
  2. Germany: $72.4 billion (up 28.2%)
  3. Mexico: $32.4 billion (down -4.9%)
  4. South Korea: $31.4 billion (up 33.1%)
  5. Slovakia: $24.3 billion (up 10%)
  6. Czech Republic: $18.6 billion (up 10.3%)
  7. Spain: $18.6 billion (up 5.3%)
  8. Thailand: $9.4 billion (up 31.7%)
  9. Hungary: $8.6 billion (up 6.6%)
  10. India: $5.2 billion (up 16.3%)
  11. Turkey: $2.8 billion (up 66.5%)
  12. Indonesia: $2.6 billion (up 26.7%)
  13. Sweden: $2.51 billion (down -14.6%)
  14. Romania: $2.47 billion (down -19.2%)
  15. South Africa: $2.2 billion (down -13.2%)
Countries Incurring Worst Deficits from Global Trade of Cars
  1. United States: -US$93.5 billion (net export deficit down -6.3% since 2020)
  2. China: -$26.4 billion (down -24.5%)
  3. France: -$19.7 billion (up 8.9%)
  4. Australia: -$17.3 billion (up 37%)
  5. Saudi Arabia: -$11.9 billion (up 12.4%)
  6. Switzerland: -$9.6 billion (up 1.2%)
  7. Italy: -$8.82 billion (up 7.8%)
  8. Norway: -$8.35 billion (up 48.4%)
  9. United Arab Emirates: -$7.4 billion (up 71.7%)
  10. Russia: -$6.6 billion (up 48.7%)
  11. Netherlands: -$6.4 billion (up 34.2%)
  12. Poland: -$6.2 billion (up 52.6%)
  13. United Kingdom: -$5.6 billion (down -31.6%)
  14. Taiwan: -$5.3 billion (down -3.2%)
  15. Israel: -$5.1 billion (up 22.5%)
This is a very nice summary of the export markets for the legacy auto industry. However, China's and the U.S.' domestic auto markets are so huge compared to other individual markets of single nations, maybe we should also consider the sales on their own domestic markets? Anyway, after the commencement of the NEV revolution, such data are getting less and less relevant.

From Nio Power Day 2022:
  • "The company has developed 500 kW ultra-fast charging piles with peak currents of 650 A that will begin installation in China and Europe by the end of the year." Xpeng's comparable, 480 kW charging pile can charge 10-80% in 12 minutes. Nio's system is said to be more powerful than Xpeng's
  • "NIO also said it will complete a highway battery swap network with full coverage of nine vertical, nine horizontal highways and 19 urban clusters by 2025. "
  • "By 2025, more than 90 percent of NIO users will have at least one battery swap station within three kilometers of their homes."
  • "NIO reiterates that it will have more than 4,000 battery swap stations worldwide by 2025, 1,000 of which will be located overseas."
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Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
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59,000 Tesla vehicles have software glitch globally: German watchdog

Updated 14:01, 04-Jul-2022

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Elon Musk attends the opening ceremony of the new Tesla Gigafactory for electric cars in Gruenheide, Germany, March 22, 2022. /Reuters

German road traffic agency, the KBA, said it was recalling Tesla models Y and 3 due to a fault in the automatic emergency call system which affects 59,000 vehicles globally.

The KBA said on its website dated June 29 that a software flaw was causing a breakdown of the eCall, which is designed to automatically contact emergency responders in the event of a serious accident.

German regional broadcaster Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg, which serves the region that is home to Tesla's German model Y and battery production site near Berlin, first reported the recall on July 2.

The KBA said 59,129 vehicles were affected globally but did not specify how many of those were registered in Germany.

The software glitch is an added headache for Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla, after he said on July 2 that the company delivered 17.9 percent fewer electric vehicles in the second quarter from the previous quarter.

Musk also said last month that Tesla's new factories in Texas and Berlin are "losing billions of dollars" as they struggle to increase production because of a shortage of batteries and Chinese port issues.

Moreover, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration early in June upgraded its probe into 830,000 Tesla vehicles with the advanced driver assistance system Autopilot, a required step before it could seek a recall.
 

B.I.B.

Captain
Because I favour ICE Vechiles over EV I am hoping this predicted power shortage is so bad will see a delay in the dominace of EV's over the ICE. Meanwhile while reading the fine print in my newly purchased washing machine I notice the mechanical parts have a 8 yr waranty while the electronics only have two. Hmmmm maybe that won't augur well for EV's with their increased electronics.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Because I favour ICE Vechiles over EV I am hoping this predicted power shortage is so bad will see a delay in the dominace of EV's over the ICE. Meanwhile while reading the fine print in my newly purchased washing machine I notice the mechanical parts have a 8 yr waranty while the electronics only have two. Hmmmm maybe that won't augur well for EV's with their increased electronics.

That's ridiculous. EVs are cheaper overall and don't release fumes that are bad for people in the area and for the environment.

Plus EVs comprise a battery and an electric motor. In comparison, an internal combustion engine comprises thousands of components which have to run at high temperatures and high speed. Which will need more maintenance and also break first?
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Because I favour ICE Vechiles over EV I am hoping this predicted power shortage is so bad will see a delay in the dominace of EV's over the ICE. Meanwhile while reading the fine print in my newly purchased washing machine I notice the mechanical parts have a 8 yr waranty while the electronics only have two. Hmmmm maybe that won't augur well for EV's with their increased electronics.

ICE cars also have a ton of electronics on board. More so now than ever. Hybrids add even more complexity versus an EV.

With EV cars, its the battery warranty that's most important. Just to give you some perspective, with Toyota, powertrain is 6 year/60,000 mile warranty. But if you have a Toyota hybrid, the batteries themselves now have a 10 year warranty. BYD also has a 10 year battery warranty. We expect LFP batteries to go beyond 10 years. In fact, salvaged LFP from used vehicles can be recycled for power storage applications.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I must add that EVs do not benefit every country. There are many countries where gas is dirt cheap because said country are gas producers or are near one. These are countries like Venezuela, Qatar, Iran and Russia. In order to help subsidize their oil industry, especially if such countries are under sanctions, they have to help subsidize their oil industry with domestic consumption. You won't believe the price of gasoline in Libya or Venezuela if you looked them up.

With sanction heavily weighing in on Russia, their entire automobile industry is set to go back to the eighties, reversing decades of development. Personally for me, that's not so bad. There is an opportunity to design and manufacture automobiles with the least electronic parts as you can. Back to analog gauges, mechanical fuel injection and so on. Screw the infotainment systems. While electronics provide great convenience, they also add a complexity in both the user experience and the maintenance of such vehicles. Furthermore, electronics are proving to be the production bottleneck of the automobile industry, and are driving up the cost of the cars. This is going retro but in a good way, but of course, cities like Moscow and Tehran will be heavily covered by smog as a result. But at least, their societies will continue to function.

The cost of the cars are driven two ways. Insufficient production leads to shortages, and prices go up when supply does not meet demand, leaving demand to pay higher prices. The second is that a low end, low margin vehicles also uses a whole quantity of electronics nearly as much as high priced, high margin vehicles can. If you are an auto producer, trying to maximize profits, you will be inclined to cut down on the cheap fuel efficient compacts you are selling on razor thin margins for more luxurious high margin, high performance but less energy efficient SUVs. Have you noticed the retreat of subcompacts like the Toyota Yaris and Honda Fit from the US market? The main reason why subcompacts still exist is because many countries in Asia and Europe have expensive engine displacement taxes that can force vehicles with larger displacements (2.0 liters and over, yes, for you Americans, puny 2.0 liters is big for Asians) out of the price range of the general populace. That's why you have many Asian market vehicle models that run on 1.0 to 1.6 liters displacements.

But anyway, electronics are raising the base cost of vehicles up while at the same time, imposing shortages that further the cost of the vehicle. This is going to hurt for mass populations on countries that are extensively automobile based in their transportation and lack a strong public transit system. Russia has the opportunity to reset their own automobile progress to produce cheap mostly mechanical, minimal electronics, simple and highly reliable ICE vehicles, for their own market and even export them to BRICs and third world markets with the exclusion of China which will be highly electrified.
 
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