A Chinese Wagner would be excellent and a good way to finally get PLA hands dirty and some experience without direct involvement.
Myanmar/Burma civil conflict
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Well if deployed in Myanmar I can bet that most of the personnel deployed will be either Jingpo, Lisu, Lahu, Achang, Dai, and Wa because they're familer with the terrain and customs and ethnic relations.
Hard to say but private security companies will likely hire retired PLA soldiers. Does the PLA have a mixture of recruits from Jingpo, Lisu, Lahu, Achang, Dai, and Wa ethnicities?
Well the only statistics that I know of is 2006 and said ethnicities are in the thousands which is good enough for a pmc
No idea why the want to support this junta, seems like the end will be best for it anyway, has no right to govern.
IMO, the Americans have stepped up support of the so-called "People's Defense Forces"
This is old, but showing official recognition by the State Department as their "Chosen People"
Meeting with Blinken
Now, just because a faction becomes the American's pet project is no guarantee of the future establishment of a puppet regime even if the junta is toppled (see: Libya), but it does guarantee a banana republic and huge border instability/worse criminal activity should it collapse. Either option is not good for China.
Does it guarantee a banana republic? Is the Junta not the cause of this instability? No, these are genuine revolutionary movements.
I am not saying that movements are not legitimate just because they attract US support. Rather that US support means they can serve US interests (which is destabilizing China). Furthermore they are not united movements, but many different ones.
Does the fall of the Junta guarantee a banana republic? The answer is 99% yes (IMO)
The NUG is a government in name only, in a country with such weak institutions already, it would be an uphill battle to establish an effective governing apparatus. This is only complicated by the ethnic militias who are allied now to oppose the junta, but who can say where they stand once the common enemy is gone?
The Junta is only the cause of the instability between itself and the NUG/PDF. These ethnic tensions existed in British colonial times, and even before then too.
I don't think China is married to the junta being in power, it was working with Aung San Suu Kyi closely before, despite her early western backing. However, based on a purely technical analysis, a bad government is better than chaos.
Ok
a bad government is not better than chaos. Should the KMT have remained in power? Certainly would’ve been less chaotic than a revolution, but then where would we be today? Should’ve the Belorussian partisans just accepted German rule for the stake of stability? Of course not.