Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

CrazyHorse said:

Does it guarantee a banana republic? Is the Junta not the cause of this instability? No, these are genuine revolutionary movements.

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MNDAA Declares Truce With Myanmar Junta After China Detains Leader​

The ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) on Tuesday declared a unilateral ceasefire with the junta while pledging to join China-brokered peace efforts, as Beijing continues to detain its chief.

Chinese authorities

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MNDAA leader Peng Daren under house arrest in Kunming after his meeting there with China’s special envoy to Myanmar in late October. Beijing

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the MNDAA chief is in China for medical care.

Peng Daren’s arrest followed China’s closure of border trade crossings to MNDAA territory in northern Shan State, a move aimed at pressuring the ethnic army to halt its months-long offensive against Myanmar’s military regime.

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The MNDAA declared an immediate ceasefire on Tuesday, stating it would seek resolution of conflicts – including the governance of Lashio, the northern Shan State capital – under Chinese government arbitration.

The MNDAA and allies seized Lashio and its Northeastern Military Command Headquarters in August after a month of attacks. Unable to reclaim it by force, the regime is reportedly hoping that Beijing’s pressure will force the ethnic army to relinquish the northern Shan capital.

However, a military analyst monitoring the fighting in northern Shan State told The Irrawaddy that the MNDAA cannot afford to hand Lashio back to the regime.

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“If the MNDAA returns it, their defensive position will collapse. Such a move would also threaten towns around Lashio that were recently liberated by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army [TNLA], an ethnic ally of the MNDAA,” the analyst said.

The MNDAA on Tuesday also demanded that the regime halt its ongoing airstrikes and offensives nationwide.

It pledged to send a high-level delegation for China-brokered peace talks with the regime.

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How Recent Successes Of Rebel Forces In Myanmar’s Rakhine And Chin States Can Prove Advantageous For India​

• India has an opening to deepen its engagements with the ethnic armed organisations, as well as the anti-junta National Unity Government, headed by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party.

What This Means for India
The fall of the Chin and Rakhine states to rebel EAOs, which are fighting the Myanmarese junta forces, presents a wonderful opportunity for India. That’s for three reasons.
First, India’s ambitious Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit Project, which has been in limbo for the past few years, can be revived now.
Second, India can easily exploit the deep differences within the Chin resistance forces to neutralise the Kuki-Chin militant groups in Manipur and also repatriate the 70,000-odd Kuki-Chin refugees from Myanmar who are now sheltered in Mizoram.

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Third, the latest developments in Myanmar, with the EAOs and citizens’ resistance groups — called the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), which are affiliated to the anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG), comprising all opposition and exiled political parties — making steady territorial gains and defeating the junta forces, also presents India with a very good opportunity to increase its influence in Myanmar.

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