Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
No one ever won with using PMCs.

The East India Company might disagree with that.

PMCs can fight and have won, if they're properly utilized and resourced, and especially if there's flexibility about things like rules of engagement and collateral damage.

As the UN no longer is about to lose any pretense of power to prevent territorial aggression and the ICC is down, why not just annex Myanmar?

The Chinese government is not stupid. They have certainly learned a few invaluable lessons observing America's recent misadventures with nation building.

It would send a clear signal to Thailand to stop whiffle waffling between pleasing China politically and economically while allowing western countries to use it as a national level prostitute.

Violent coercion might sound immoral, but is nothing unusual in statecraft. However, for it to be effective, it has to be carefully calibrated. You probably wouldn't want to push Thailand closer towards what you'd call her johns.

If you really, absolutely want to and just have to go there, a carrot or stick approach will be more optimal, if not an imperative.

China just needs to stage a bogus vote like Russians, saying 99% of Burmese want to join China. Given how shit Myanmar is, that vote probably doesn't even need rigging.

Those elections in what is or was Eastern Ukraine weren't necessarily bogus. The locals who stayed and voted tended to consider themselves both Ukrainian and Russian or just Russian. Those who didn't tended to have fled, though that obviously wasn't an option for everyone.

Moreover, if fraudulent elections are necessary, you may want to reconsider your invasion plans. It might seem easy to invade and proclaim victory (just ask George W Bush circa 2003), but it isn't always easy to occupy, nevermind govern and develop a country, especially a place as fractured as Burma.

Ultimately, if you have to rule, nevermind assimilate tens of millions of foreigners, it will be ideal to be both feared and loved. Your subjects need to appreciate your rule and prefer it over the alternative, assuming an alternative is even plausible.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Fuck no to annexing Myanmar. As juicy as the port would be, the country is a total mess. It's basically been in constant civil war since the Brits left. 50 million uneducated non-Chinese population ruled by ethnic warlords, definitely not worth it.

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公安部:全面开展国际执法合作 坚决摧毁境外诈骗窝点​


Yes, lines on a map is one thing but it would probably take a hundred years to build out the necessary state capacity and physical/political infrastructure across Myanmar. Basically building a new country from scratch. US already demonstrated how to fail epically at that, and even considering the disparities in proximity and commitment, an eventual success would still be a huge headache, money pit, and distraction which Beijing absolutely shouldn't go anywhere near.
 

A potato

Junior Member
Registered Member
Fuck no to annexing Myanmar. As juicy as the port would be, the country is a total mess. It's basically been in constant civil war since the Brits left. 50 million uneducated non-Chinese population ruled by ethnic warlords, definitely not worth it.

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公安部:全面开展国际执法合作 坚决摧毁境外诈骗窝点​

What about Shan and Kachin State which are people who exist in China?
 

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
What about Shan and Kachin State which are people who exist in China?
If the Shan, Kachin and any other ethnic groups which have some sort of ties to China can control a region of land from China's borders all the way to the Indian Ocean, and they passed a referendum to join China, I don't think China would turn down his lost brethren :)

The first part is the most important though ;)
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Press X to doubt. Why would China use PLA in Myanmar? If the Junta really can't cooperate, I'm sure China can find some volunteers to remove the scammers in Myanmar.

China doesn't have to put boots on the ground. China can provide air power support to whatever allies that are willing to take control of the area and restore order. You know, the Russian playbook in Syria.

Even if the Junta dares to complain, it doesn't have a UN ambassador.
 
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