Myanmar/Burma civil conflict
- Thread starter flyzies
- Start date
Business as usual. It was the same before the previous government came to power.
Looks like like troops at the border weren't the border guard brigades, more like a Medium Combined Arms Brigade.
Are these troops anticipating a major conflict in the region?
We know China has no habit of sending troops to interfere. So what are they doing if not entering Myanmar? My guess is they think a major conflict is coming, and they must secure border to prevent spill over.
We know China has no habit of sending troops to interfere. So what are they doing if not entering Myanmar? My guess is they think a major conflict is coming, and they must secure border to prevent spill over.
TNLA surrounded Muse a long time ago, and if they attack then all the civilians will flee in the only direction they can—across the border into Ruili. Troops are there to keep things under control, and also send a warning.
This is what I think is happening.
- TNLA has Muse surrounded and intends to move in. At its natural state, the fall of Muse is a forgone conclusion as victory at Lashio effectively sealed the door to any potential reinforcement.
- A large scale assault on Muse will result in a refugee situation, or even worse collateral damage on the Chinese side. Evacuating RuiLi is in my opinion a political impossibility for China. Why evacuate when you can return fire a hundredfold and destroy those responsible?
- China wants to force a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement for border crossings. This is similar to what they negotiated for Kokang crossings at Chinshewehaw, with the military getting 30% and MNDAA 70% of revenue. This makes sense from the Chinese prospective, persistent conflict completely stopes all trade, so a negotiated settlement ensure all side makes money, stops any potential damage.
- However, the settlement at Kokang is already broken. Also previous experience with cohabitation with NayPyiTaw resulted in coup and exile for MNDAA in 2009. I imagine TNLA is not looking toward repeating this experience themselves.
The end result if China want negotiated settlement, while TNLA is not likely to accept a solution that results in any military troops remaining in their areas.
Muse is not defensible since the city is in a valley with TNLA holding the surrounding hills. Taking it would be easy, military-wise, but China says no. Status quo will remain for Muse while the conflict is decided elsewhere; it's not a critical strategic location anyway. After a new government/national fragmentation/whatever happens, then a negotiated settlement will be possible.
Troops are in Ruili just to remind everyone not to do anything stupid. There were some rumours of a planned attack recently.
I don't think it's America plan. This contradict their grand strategy to contain china. Even if that's true, it's good for china.
I think china should rather force SAC to retract terrorist status and recognize MNDAA special region like how USWA got. This will also help SAC to consolidate elsewhere where they have chance to win.
It is the Tonya Harding school of kneecapping everyone else so you remain on top. India is not playing ball and keeps good relations with Russia so they need to be taught a lesson.