Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I believe some equate territorial expansion with security as they expect some kind of garrison to be built on it. Then some kind of indoctrination program on the locals would follow to guarantee your security. Reality proves otherwise.
Ya, US has failed to do that since the 60's.
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Depends on how it turns out, but I think China has done a pretty good job balancing between all sides so far. No matter who wins, they will be at least somewhat amenable to Chinese interests.
If china balancing all side and directing the situation perfectly, china can reach insurgent groups in northeast India to supply them continuously without international backlash. Reclaiming South tibet will be a cakewalk. It's the best things china could get from this situation aside from Indian ocean passages.
 

A potato

Junior Member
Registered Member
The ethnic majority Bamar of Myanmar are already strongly sinophobic, and have been since colonial times. The Burma situation is similar to other countries in Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam) where the main indigenous ethnic group was never able to compete with Chinese traders and so they blame Chinese (ALL Chinese, they never distinguish between diaspora and mainland) for their socioeconomic problems. see Chang, Wen-Chin (2014). Beyond borders: stories of Yunnanese Chinese migrants of Burma. Ithaca. pp. 6–8, 30–35

Annexation of part of the borderland will definitely make Myanmar to a hostile enemy, but annexing all of Myanmar will create something like an Afghanistan situation. China should be acting as an impartial mediator between the different factions of Burma, which is the best bet for getting at least some to guarantee access to the Indian Ocean through their lands
There are ethnic bamars who live in china right? Afterall China is the second country where Burmese is spoken in (obviously mostly in Yunnan)
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Tse

Junior Member
Registered Member
There are ethnic bamars who live in china right? Afterall China is the second country where Burmese is spoken in (obviously mostly in Yunnan)
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I don't think so, as far as I know, the only place in China where Burmese is spoken is Dehong Prefecture where it is used as one of the languages (not the first language or mother tongue) of the Jingpo ethnic group, essentially like the Kachins of Myanmar. Although Bamar originated in the Yunnan Nanzhao kingdom (they are essentially descendants of soldiers left over from Nanzhao's 9th century southward invasions, absorbing earlier populations) they did not settle anywhere near the mountainous Yunnan border, which is mainly inhabited by other ethnic groups like Kachin, Shan and Wa. Anyway, even if there was a presence of a small ethnic minority in China it is not really that useful; a number of Kinh Vietnamese are also represented in Guangxi but haven't really helped in dealing with Vietnam.

Generally speaking I would stand by my assessment, that the Bamar, with their history of progroms and expulsions, are similar to the Indonesian/Malaysian Muslims in their attitudes towards Chinese and China. These groups' attitudes are essentially Protocols of the Elders of Zion-level paranoia and jealousy. That's why they kept blaming China when the military coup happened a couple of years ago, although China had no more ties to the Tatmadaw than to any of the other factions in Burma. Basically, it's very unwise to have any direct dealings with these peoples, much less directly ruling them!
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Even if they listen, China will never accept an independent militia within its borders, and the warlords will never willingly disband their forces.
If China feels like it, they could always just accept the militia territory, and then integrate the warlords forces once current one dies. Once the territory enters China officially, how China deal with it is simple.

The actual reason could be China not wanting to antagonize Mayanmar. Better to have a friend than an enemy during important step of kicking out Americans out of west Pacific. Once that happens, the shift in geopolitics provide much more room for ambition.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
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Wang Yi to visit Myanmar, Thailand amid tensions in South China Sea

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will pay a visit to Myanmar and then to Thailand to chair the Ninth Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Foreign Ministers' Meeting from Wednesday to Saturday, during which he will also attend an Informal Discussion Between the Foreign Ministers of China, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Thailand, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Tuesday.

Elaborating on the expectations for this year's LMC meeting, the Ministry spokesperson said that the LMC is an innovative regional cooperation mechanism among China, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam based on collaboration, consultation and shared benefit.
Regarding China's top diplomat's upcoming trip to Myanmar, the spokesperson said the visit is aimed at deepening bilateral mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields, cementing the close bond of friendship between the two peoples, and advancing the building of a China-Myanmar community with a shared future.

As a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, China strictly follows the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs, supports Myanmar's effort to uphold stability, grow the economy and improve people's livelihood, and provides constructive help for parties in Myanmar to properly address differences through political consultation within the framework of the constitution and other laws, according to the spokesperson.
 
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