Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

antiterror13 said:

What would happen if (unlikely) part of Myanmar now wanted to be part and integrated to China as one of the provinces ? Would China accept it ?

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No way, Kokang is poor as hell and middle of nowhere. Pretty much the whole interior is the same, all the wealth (such as it is) is on the coast. But the coast is farthest away and least China-friendly part, so it's much better to have influence over the government which controls the coast. Also ports could be useful for strategic reasons.

Rumors only, but my uncle in Kunming told me that MNDAA asked to join China back in 2009 when they were desperate. But they are crazy ethnonationalists who don't follow orders. That's why UWSA are much closer to China even though they aren't Han, they know how to listen.

Wrought said:

No way, Kokang is poor as hell and middle of nowhere. Pretty much the whole interior is the same, all the wealth (such as it is) is on the coast. But the coast is farthest away and least China-friendly part, so it's much better to have influence over the government which controls the coast.

Rumors only, but my uncle in Kunming told me that MNDAA asked to join China back in 2009 when they were desperate. But they are crazy ethnonationalists who don't follow orders. That's why UWSA are much closer to China, they know how to listen.

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Even if they listen, China will never accept an independent militia within its borders, and the warlords will never willingly disband their forces.

solarz said:

Even if they listen, China will never accept an independent militia within its borders, and the warlords will never willingly disband their forces.

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Yes, that's why they only asked when they were going to be wiped out. They wanted China to save them from the Tatmadaw. Peng Jiasheng was allowed to run across the border, but he didn't get any help from the authorities.

antiterror13 said:

What would happen if (unlikely) part of Myanmar now wanted to be part and integrated to China as one of the provinces ? Would China accept it ?

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Value would be direct access to new ports, coastal area and new airbases/expanded airspace

The geostrategic/economic and military benefit to China would be so enormous that I doubt America and India wouldn't do anything in their power to prevent such scenario from happening. So probably that's a bit too soon, maybe for 2049+ year

Yeah, a lot of the value of Myanmar lies in its access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Strait of Malacca.

So the mountainous part of Myanmar - the part that's closest to China geographically and ethnically, and most likely to ask to be annexed - is the least useful.

antiterror13 said:

What would happen if (unlikely) part of Myanmar now wanted to be part and integrated to China as one of the provinces ? Would China accept it ?

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As China's internal development starts to taper out, Laos and Myanmar are the natural next contenders for territorial expansion.

Myanmar in particular because it would make China the dominant Indian ocean power. And it is projected that a vast portion of humanity is going to live in the region right across the sea from Myanmar, China would be stupid not to take the chance and control the fate of the region for all future by making Myanmar into Chinese homeland.

I think a lot of the integration China is making in SEA serves the purpose of eventually making it palatable for these countries to join Beijing, but it's a non urgent matter that can't be rushed.

These are essentially the surefire solutions to both the Indian and the demographics problem. They are not needed yet because those problems are future problems, not problems today.

To annex an isolated part of Myanmar would be to make the Crimea mistake. You would gain 10% of the land but lose the remaining 90% of the country.

Right now China already has Myanmar, the whole country, as a friend. Under annexation, Myanmar would obviously have a huge nationalist backlash. They would want the land back. And who would they turn to?

Well, you know who. I think it's not impossible to imagine USA military bases in a Myanmar looking to regain lost land. The USA would have to repair relations with the junta. It would be hard, but definitely this possibility would be very bad for China.

I would only do annexation if China were to gain all of Myanmar. Or at least the majority, including a long coastline.

Enestori said:

To annex an isolated part of Myanmar would be to make the Crimea mistake. You would gain 10% of the land but lose the remaining 90% of the country.

Right now China already has Myanmar, the whole country, as a friend. Under annexation, Myanmar would obviously have a huge nationalist backlash. They would want the land back. And who would they turn to?

Well, you know who. I think it's not impossible to imagine USA military bases in a Myanmar looking to regain lost land. The USA would have to repair relations with the junta. It would be hard, but definitely this possibility would be very bad for China.

I would only do annexation if China were to gain all of Myanmar. Or at least the majority, including a long coastline.

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The ethnic majority Bamar of Myanmar are already strongly sinophobic, and have been since colonial times. The Burma situation is similar to other countries in Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam) where the main indigenous ethnic group was never able to compete with Chinese traders and so they blame Chinese (ALL Chinese, they never distinguish between diaspora and mainland) for their socioeconomic problems. see Chang, Wen-Chin (2014). Beyond borders: stories of Yunnanese Chinese migrants of Burma. Ithaca. pp. 6–8, 30–35

Annexation of part of the borderland will definitely make Myanmar to a hostile enemy, but annexing all of Myanmar will create something like an Afghanistan situation. China should be acting as an impartial mediator between the different factions of Burma, which is the best bet for getting at least some to guarantee access to the Indian Ocean through their lands

Enestori said:

To annex an isolated part of Myanmar would be to make the Crimea mistake. You would gain 10% of the land but lose the remaining 90% of the country.

Right now China already has Myanmar, the whole country, as a friend. Under annexation, Myanmar would obviously have a huge nationalist backlash. They would want the land back. And who would they turn to?

Well, you know who. I think it's not impossible to imagine USA military bases in a Myanmar looking to regain lost land. The USA would have to repair relations with the junta. It would be hard, but definitely this possibility would be very bad for China.

I would only do annexation if China were to gain all of Myanmar. Or at least the majority, including a long coastline.

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The costs far outweigh the benefits. China get some extra land, but the damages to her international reputation and the need to take care of huge number of poorly educated, hostile populace makes the expansion totally not worth it.
I don't understand the desire for territorial expansion in today's world.

vincent said:

The costs far outweigh the benefits. China get some extra land, but the damages to her international reputation and the need to take care of huge number of poorly educated, hostile populace makes the expansion totally not worth it.
I don't understand the desire for territorial expansion in today's world.

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I believe some equate territorial expansion with security as they expect some kind of garrison to be built on it. Then some kind of indoctrination program on the locals would follow to guarantee your security. Reality proves otherwise.