Myanmar/Burma civil conflict
- Thread starter flyzies
- Start date
Sounds like both sides are basically taking a chance to consolidate their forces and figure out what they want to do next. An actual peace deal would include terms beyond just "stop shooting".
This is not going to hold. Brotherhood will definitely try and make an attempt on Muse, they have it on 3 different directions
The timing will depend on if any more equipment magically drops off of PLA trucks right at the border
They have like 3-5 D30s at this point. The only thing they really need is some sort of air defense system, MANPAD or truck mounted.
I believe most of the equipment is either commercially purchased from China (drones) or supplied by Wa State.
I have not looked into fine detail, but many of the troops seemed to be equipped with Type 81 (sight over gas block, magazine latch further away from trigger, ribbed rifle grenade sleeve on barrel) of which Wa State and Kachin state is known to be able to produce and proliferate amongst the other EAOs. TNLA has even been seen with the rare Type 03 which is known only to be exported to Wa State.
It is likely due to the capture of Laukkai by MNDAA on January 5th. This finished Junta's control of Kokang since 2009. So from MNDAA's perspective they have reached their main objective. I don't know what TNLA's agenda is though.
Overall, for ethnic armies their objective is to restore whatever they lost to the Junta in the past years and hold on to it. This round of conflict is also a lesson to the Junta that it is not able to forcefully impose their version of unity/conquest. So the cease fire may translate to long-term peace.
However, there is another player PDF who want to overthrown the Junta, how much support they can get from ethnic armies to continue is unknown.
There are rumors that MNDAA wants Muse and Lashio too.
Lashio i think they can let go, but with Muse they are going to at least make an attempt. They already have Monekoe to the east and Namkham to the west, as well as the road all the way down to at least Hsenwi. Its stupid not to try Muse since thats 60% of land trade to China, the revenue there justifies it.