And that's the impasse we reach, because I don't think any of us have the info to make a call either way.
There are definitely difficulties to EO guidance, but I also think the benefits (and potential drawbacks of only relying on active radar) of a passive, image/profile recognition sensor would probably entice innovation to either materials, flight maneuvers, or a combination, to allow such guidance to work.
Whether such guidance exists is another matter, but like I said, we don't know enough to say yay or nay.
I've always believed the most effective RV would utilize a cluster munition rather than kinetic energy. Kinetic energy will be useful in driving a hole through the carrier, but it requires a pinpoint "hit" on deck and thus greater accuracy. Cluster munitions can cover a much greater area (so accuracy is a little bit less important), and still have the capacity to mission kill all the vulnerable topside bits like catapults, arrestor gear, radar, not to mention pot hole the surface area of the flight deck and possibly even do meaningful damage to the crew in the island as well.
In other words, make a carrier only a carrier of planes and not a launcher/receiver of planes.
Ever think they may develop both kinds of warheads and seekers?
I think the primary aim, at least to start with, would be to develop a working seeker and deployable weapon. That means its likely that the first gen of AShBMs would use the easiest means to guide them to the target, and that would be active radar.
That does not preclude the developed of EO or dual seekers, but as far as the Chinese mentality goes for military equipment, having an operational but less than perfect system is better than having the perfect system still on the drawing board when you need it.
The seeker may well also be linked with attack profile and warhead choice.
For the same logical choices as above, I think the PLA would rather have a much higher chance to cripple or mission kill a ship rather than have a much smaller chance to kill it outright. For that reason, and if they are only using active radar seekers, I can see them employing cluster munitions on at least some of their first gen AShBMs.
A suggested 50kg sabot is way overkill.
Your average DU 120mm sabot weighs 7.5-8kg, and at M10, it will be hitting with more than twice the speed of the tank round straight out of the muzzle. Even one of those should be plenty of kill power to mess up any ship's day, a DF21 could carry 75 of those. To be honest, even 120mm is overkill, for mission kill, even 20 or 30mm would be plenty, and a DF21 would be able to carry hundreds to over a thousand of those rounds depending on cal. It would be the equivalent of an A10 doing a strafing run on your warship at point blank range, only the rounds are hitting 4 times as hard.
I think if China is using sabots for its AShBM, DU would be a good choice because of its self-sharpening properties since you want maximum penetration.
From an operational deployment scenario, I can see the PLAN employing a mixed attack method, whereby they have their first wave is designed to airburst at medium altitude. At M10, even if they airburst end at 10km height, the sabots would be hitting around 3 seconds later, making terminal manoeuvring of the target ship all but irrelevant.
That makes both hard kill and soft kill countermeasures a lot less effective, and pretty much makes the CIWS lay of any ship's defences irrelevant.
The second wave would be fired to arrive a few minutes after the first, and would consist of hit to kill unity warhead rounds.
The idea is that the first wave massively degrades the target fleet's defensive capabilities, both soft kill and hard kill wise, to pave the way for the heavy hitters to deliver the knock out blow.
If you really want to make sure, you can also thrown in conventional AShMs, from both standard subsonics to the new super and hypersonic ones the PLA have been working on, some of which were recently unveiled at Zhuhai.
After they have achieved some form of operational capacity, that is when the PLA is likely to be inclined to look at follow-on systems with better performance, so I think that is where your dual seekers and complex flight profiles might come into play.