The text in this diagram mentions two means of locating ships. One is through triangulation of EM emission. The other is through the stitching and processing of multiple satellite images. Both methods are completely automated, as in no human intervention. The latter method achieved 98% accuracy in automatically identification of 19 capital ships. Most importantly, ASBM has already gone through a full scale test as a result.
No...not at all.
Being able to identify a capitol ship through satellite images and EM triangulation is not a full scale test of the ASBM system.
Not even close.
It simply indicates that in peace time, with satellites active, that if they ID EM sources or a SAT pic with a ship in it that they can ID the ship as a military capitol ship. I think that would be a given.
This proves one part of the acquisition portion of the total chain. That's all...and that was a given IMHO.
A) It does not tell us they acquired a maneuvering target out in the middle of the sea, 1,000+ miles offshore.
B) It does not tell us that they are able to feed that data from the acquisition source that vessel into the missile.
C) It does not tell us that the missile can launch on that moving target at sea in timely manner.
D) It does not tell us that the missile will re-enter the atmosphere near the target.
E) It does not tell us that the missile can then re-acquire the proper target after re-entry, and,
F) It does not then tell us the key to the whole matter, that the missile can then hit that maneuvering target.
I have no doubts that the PLAN can identify a target at sea with some degree of accuracy if they can find its EM or find it on a Sat picture. But neither of those is a given in a combat situation.
All this tells us is that once they do find EM emissions and/or a Sat pic, they had a 98% chance of ID'ing it as a capitol warship.
That is a VERY small portion of the entire chain of events.
So, A is not a given. I believe once they have a good target, that B, C and D are probably something they can make happen.
E and F are not a given at all. So, A, E and F are not givens with their missile.
And no matter how you dice it Engineer, a weapons system of this type that has never been full up tested (and that does not require a warhead to actually detonate, it just requires that they go through their paces with all of these complicated interfacing systems including the missile itself) is a system that is just that...untested. Never verified. Completely questionable as to its operational status.
We are seeing the NSM tested in such a fashion now. The LRASM will be similarly tested. The PLAN has regularly tested its naval surface to surface missile as well...for these same reasons.
This system should also be tested if the PLAN ever expects to actually rely on it functioning. Now, it can also be quite effective at deterrence if they can convince people that it might work. I believe that is the stage this system is at right now.
Testing it full up will require that the world knows about it. They have to test it on targets at sea to be sure...heck, to even be close to being sure. In order to do that, they are going to have to establish test zones/ranges. They are going to have to warn commercial shipping. And they are going to have to actually fire the thing at a moving target. When they do that...we will know about it.
I will keep saying this until they do...and keep indicating that until they do, what you have is much more a Sun Tsu type deception and subterfuge operations than an actual functioning system.
Your analogy to nuclear weapon tests is completely apples and oranges, and a strawman.
The missile systems they ride on have been tested in this fashion. So new warheads that fit the parameters of the launch and delivery systems do not have to be tested again.
This system is projecting/claiming a new capability. It must be tested to verify that claim...not for the US, or any potential target...but for the PRC military itself so they can know if it is something that will actually hit a target.
If the goal is to actually hit targets maneuvering out at sea...they will test it.
If the goal is to plant seeds of doubt in an effort to get a potential adversary to hesitate to use their principle advantage (ie. a carrier strike group), they never will.
To date, they have not.