Some of the factors that I feel are ignored at times in these discussions are;
1) USN/USMC ECM provided by Growlers and Prowlers and Ticos and Arliegh Burke's. Nothing will work right if your gear is queer.
PLAN ECM/ECCM has advanced substantially over the past decade or so. I'd rate that aspect of their naval suite as the most advanced, relatively speaking, in their quiver.
2) The ability of USN sailors to perform damage control and major repairs in a wartime situation.
This is something Fleet Command didn't let me model, unfortunately. What were the sort of repairs a crew could perform, say, after one or two AShM or AShBM strikes? Would they be focused on maintaining seaworthiness, or would they try going one step further to restoring mission functionality?
3) USN submarines i.e. SSN/SSBN & at least one SSGN roam the Pacific virtually at will. What sort of ASW could the PLAN muster against this force??
Not much, and two SSGNs were the tools my buddy used to try and equalize what looked like a lost battle. However, HQ-9s and 19s (S-300/400), plus an active anti-cruise-missile CAP of legacy J-10As, worked really well against Tomahawks. In the end, it boiled down to a question of numbers: I had twelve long-range SAM batteries with 48 SAMs each, a dozen J-10s with 4x medium-range AAMs apiece, and twenty short-range SAM batteries with 48 SAMs each scattered in four-pack groupings around critical targets, versus the 2x154 UGMs the SSGNs could pop, plus other incoming threats (B-2s and ALCMs). As long as I was hitting better than about 70% on the UGMs and AGMs, I found I could spare the missile volleys needed to credibly threaten B-2s. If the hit rate dropped below that, I was in trouble.
Humm? Lets turn the tables. What if the Chinese decided to attack Hawaii and the US Pacific coast. What sort of forces would they face?
Not going to happen conventionally. SSNs and SSGNs would be China's only option there, and even so it would be tough going. China doesn't have enough SSNs and SSGNs nor does it have the operating expertise for that.