Re: The End of the Carrier Age?
Statistically it is impossible to hit all the warhead with certainty. Someone did a probabilistic model and come out with conclusion it might work against not so sophisticated missile like scud like missile but against multi vector attack with decoy It is impossible period.
There is no magic weapon against it
Using that type of measurement hitting a carrier with an ASBM is impossible. The evidence is that the Russians tried and failed with their SS-NX-13. And no one to date has been able to successfully achieve a hit on a carrier even in tests. Note in the following excerpt the SS-NX-13 had the ability to maneuver to hit the carrier and even with that capability they had to use a nuclear warhead.
Unless there is some breakthrough in technology, the task remains out of reach.
"...The
SS-NX-13 submarine-launched ballistic missile is a short-range, two-stage, storable liquid-propellant missile apparently designed for
anti-ship missions. It is capable of delivering a reentry vehicle in the 2500-lb class, containing a warhead with a yield of 2.0 to 3.5 MT, to a minimum operational range of 80 nm or a maximum operational range of 360 nm. The missile flies a lofted trajectory, and is unique in that it has an
impact-point correction capability of up to 30 nm through use of a restartable second-stage. The missile uses an inertial guidance system aided by an onboard passive ELINT target sensor. In a pure ballistic mode the SS-NX-13 is capable of a CEP of about 0.3 nm, and against cooperative targets, i.e., a target emanating radio-frequency transmissions, the SS-NX-13 is capable of a CEP of 0.1 to 0.2 nm...."
On a further note if you or anyone else wishes to understand the task of a ballistic missile maneuvering to hit a fixed target read this excellent book. Hitting a moving target is orders of difficulty more.
"...
.Lightning Bolts by William Yengst describes the initial feasibility programs to test three alternative designs for implementing hypersonic maneuvers and accurate guidance of long-range reentry vehicles. It identifies the political and military motivations, environmental challenges, design difficulties, innovative technology solutions, test failures, and spectacular successes. It also summarizes development of operational maneuvering reentry vehicles prepared for U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Army long-range missile systems during the 1980s. The technology has been adopted and further refined by foreign nations (India, China and Russia) in building their latest missile systems. Therefore, it is important to understand the capabilities and performance characteristics of future potential threats. Written as a first-hand account of the technology's evolution, the book honors the dedicated engineers and scientists who worked to make these programs a success...."