Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Fu Wen Shi said:

Wouldn't something like the X-47B pretty much counter the DF-21D in the future?

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People say that, but I'm not quite sure how it works. If it has sufficient range then carriers could be parked outside of the DF-21Ds kill range allowing strike operations and what not to be done, but it's not like X-47B will be countering AShBM in the sense that it's actively searching for TELs to destroy.

X-47B will be no more a counter than the rest of the US military's assets. Because AShBM will rely on sensors and satellites, you could say anything which is able to shoot at OTH radar stations, ASAT weapons, counter URAV (such as extended range CAP), or even special forces somehow inserted into the chinese mainland to destroy TELs could be called "counters".
And therein lies both the vulnerability and a strength of the system. You can take out some of the kill chain but you won't know if there will be back ups. Honestly I think this is the kind of anti AShBM tactics the US should be considering for the near future instead of terminal stage interceptions. But all that depends on whether we're assuming the weapon works like it's supposed to etc etc.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Bltizo said:

The more I think about it, the more awkward the idea of intercepting a DF-21D is, not that it would be difficult overall, but rather there will be some stages where the missile is more vulnerable than others. Personally I think terminal will be the hardest stage, so if a few ABs or Ticos are left forward of the main fleet they could try SM-3ing the missile while it's exoatmospheric. But then there are claims



Of course, at the least it should make USN planners think twice about going into the weapon's purportrated kill zone, a good 2500km or so.

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The US has the technology to intercept ballistic missiles at all stages. Boost, exo-atmosphere, and terminally.

It is only one vote away from being able to deploy them en masse too. In fact, the hit to kill variety ios already deployed for the eo atmosphere threat to the US, and the terminal and mid course threat of regional weapons in several places around the globe. The laser capability for boost is there...but not deployed at this time. The right admin and congress could change that within a few short years.

Of course, other nations know this and have to plan their launching and defenses accordingly.

But, the assets required to make the DF-21D work (if it ever is actually tested and deployed) are also vulnerable. The same technoloies the US has deveoped for shooting down the missile at varoius stages, can also interdict the necessary other links in the chain, be they sats, recon, and even the comm links between them all.

Bottom line is this. On one side you have talk of a missile system that is undoubtedlky being considered and researched...and a few pictures of missiles being carted around on carriers...but no live test sent out over hundreds or thousands of kilometers against manuevering targets at sea.

On the other hand you have a deployed anti-missile system for ballistic missiles that has been successfully tested numerous times in plain site and is now deployed on the earth's oceans in probably over two dozen combat ships. That particular entity is also pushing the envelope and has already tested...again, successfully, laser technology from aboard ship and looking to deploy that system in the next 5-10 years.

I know this has been said numerous times...but the difference between talking, researching developing, etc. and actually deploying a workable system, that the tests have proven to be so is a significant gulf...or chasm as it were...between the two. One day, perhaps we will see those tests. But at that point the US has already indicated by deploying its defenses that it will still place its carriers and carrier groups where it feels they will be of the best use in the threat environment of that time.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Jeff Head said:

The US has the technology to intercept ballistic missiles at all stages. Boost, exo-atmpspher, and terminally.

It is only one vote away from being able to deploy them en masse too.

Of course, other nations know this and have to plan their launching and defenses accordingly.

But, the assets required to make the DF-21D work (if it ever is actually tested and deployed) are also vulnerable. The same technoloies the US has deveoped for shooting down the missile at vaiors stages, can also interdict the necessary other links in the chain, be they sats, recon, and even the comm links between them all.

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Yes I fully agree here.
I know the US (and Russia, China) all have some capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles in the terminal and exoatmo phase, but in the AShBM's case it might be easier to disrupt the kill chain earlier rather than waiting for the missile itself to be launched.

The idea of intercepting AShBM is entirely contingent on the way both sides fighting the conflict enter it, which will determine which if any intercet methods; boost, exo or terminal are capable of being undertaken.

But I do believe lasers wont' be used in the anti AShBM role any time soon, more reliable to use missiles considering under development lasers are smaller ciws type mounts.

Bottom line ios this. On one side you have talk of a missile system that is undoubtedlky being considered and researched...and a few pictures of missiles being carted around on carriers...but no live test sent out over hundreds or thousands of kilometers against manuevering targets at sea.

On the other hand you have a deployed anti-missile system for ballistic missiles that has been successfully tested numerous times in plain site and is now deployed on the earth's oceans in probably over two dozen combat ships. That particular entity is also pushing the envelope and has already tested...again, successfully, laser technology from aboard ship and looking to deploy that system in the next 5-10 years.

I know this has been said numerous times...but the difference between talking, researching developing, etc. and actually deploying a workable system, that the tests have proven to be so is a significant gulf...or chasm as it were...between the two. One day, perhaps we will see those tests. But at that point the US has already indicated by deploying its defenses that it will still place its carriers and carrier groups where it feels they will be of the best use in the threat environment of that time.

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Of course we do not know what stage the DF-21D's development is at, or even if it's actually been fielded already. But wouldn't a full scale test of DF-21D be rather... well stupid? Such a test will only encourage the US to develop more counters, not to mention that the radar stations the US and its allies have in the region will most likely be able to track DF-21Ds movements and trajectory, which they can use to develop said counters. And that's leaving out the heightened tensions which will inevitably arise from the test of such a weapon.

Personally I feel the likelihood of a real test of DF-21D under current circumstances is unlikely nor is there any real logic in it if the individual parts of the system can be tested and strung together in simulated exercises. That's not to say they've done that, but rather it's possible if DF-21D achieved IOC and what not in recent years as quite a few people believe.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Jeff Head said:

Bottom line is this. On one side you have talk of a missile system that is undoubtedlky being considered and researched...and a few pictures of missiles being carted around on carriers...but no live test sent out over hundreds or thousands of kilometers against manuevering targets at sea.

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This has also been said many times, there is absolutely no reason why China needs to carry out ASBM tests at sea.

Also, it's well and fine that US missile defense systems are able to intercept a couple of missiles in test, but there is nothing that indicates the US is capable of defending against a saturation attack of dozens or even hundreds of ASBMs at the same time.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

This has also been said many times, there is absolutely no reason why China needs to carry out ASBM tests at sea.

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Agreed -- in fact there would be incentive to avoid a full scale test as I outlined earlier.

Also, it's well and fine that US missile defense systems are able to intercept a couple of missiles in test, but there is nothing that indicates the US is capable of defending against a saturation attack of dozens or even hundreds of ASBMs at the same time.

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But then again there's nothing that can indicate the 2nd arty can fire dozens let alone hundreds of AShBMs at once towards one task group... Let's not escalate the hypothetical scenarios lol

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

This has also been said many times, there is absolutely no reason why China needs to carry out ASBM tests at sea.

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To make sure it works in the enironment it was designed for. All the modeling, and all the tests in other environments only go so far.

I've worked in the industry and ultimately the most important test comes when you take it out and live fire the thing into an environment as close to the one you expect it to operate in as possible.

Tryning to field multi-billion dollar systems (and thats what the DF21D is when you put it all together), without such tests is, IMHO, foolhardy at best.

But, folks can believe and the Chinese can do whatever they please. I personally believe they are smarter than that though and will conduct such tests once they believe the technology is ready for it.

it's not foolish. The US is well aware of determining what the Chinese would have to have in order to make such a system work. The gains one gets through such tests for your own project and in terms of deterence for others watching are invaluable.

Anyhow...we will obviously go around and around on this. In the end, time will tell and if we are patient, we'll ultimately find out.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Jeff Head said:

To make sure it works in the enironment it was designed for. All the modeling, and all the tests in other environments only go so far.

I've worked in the industry and ultimately the most important test comes when you take it out and live fire the thing into an environment as close to the one you expect it to operate in as possible.

Tryning to field multi-billion dollar systems (and thats what the DF21D is when you put it all together), without such tests is, IMHO, foolhardy at best.

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The thing is the infrastructure requried for a successful firing of AShBM can be tested without actually needing to fire a missile into the ocean. AshBM is only one part of the area denial strategy, and the satellites and data links and OTH radars and what not are obviously not just for DF-21D. Really what they are trying to field is the missile itself.

But, folks can believe and the Chinese can do whatever they please. I personally believe they are smarter than that though and will conduct such tests once they believe the technology is ready for it.

it's not foolish. The US is well aware of determining what the Chinese would have to have in order to make such a system work. The gains one gets through such tests for your own project and in terms of deterence for others watching are invaluable.

Anyhow...we will obviously go around and around on this. In the end, time will tell and if we are patient, we'll ultimately find out.

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It's only deterrence if you know the other side can't develop something to counter it -- in this case keeping AShBM a profile high enough to worm doubt into US planners minds, while not such a high profile that it provokes a full on program to counter the weapon is the way to go.
Conducting a full scale test at this stage, as I said before, would be showing your hand to the other side.

But okay, I'm fine with agreeing to disagree

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Jeff Head said:

To make sure it works in the enironment it was designed for. All the modeling, and all the tests in other environments only go so far.

I've worked in the industry and ultimately the most important test comes when you take it out and live fire the thing into an environment as close to the one you expect it to operate in as possible.

Tryning to field multi-billion dollar systems (and thats what the DF21D is when you put it all together), without such tests is, IMHO, foolhardy at best.

But, folks can believe and the Chinese can do whatever they please. I personally believe they are smarter than that though and will conduct such tests once they believe the technology is ready for it.

it's not foolish. The US is well aware of determining what the Chinese would have to have in order to make such a system work. The gains one gets through such tests for your own project and in terms of deterence for others watching are invaluable.

Anyhow...we will obviously go around and around on this. In the end, time will tell and if we are patient, we'll ultimately find out.

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And that's assuming that the Chinese have worked out ultra-long range high fidelity targeting and detection systems... more than likely, in order to aim the DF-21's, they will need lots of conventional assets (maritime patrol aircraft, ships, submarines, etc) to find the carrier group in the first place. The USN is very good at hiding carrier groups from those who want to find them if they choose to.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Pointblank said:

And that's assuming that the Chinese have worked out ultra-long range high fidelity targeting and detection systems... more than likely, in order to aim the DF-21's, they will need lots of conventional assets (maritime patrol aircraft, ships, submarines, etc) to find the carrier group in the first place. The USN is very good at hiding carrier groups from those who want to find them if they choose to.

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Not really They used over the horizon radar to cue in their their burgeoning space asset to find the CBG then confirm it either with UAV or J20. In this time and age Satellite do most of the work completely different than WW2 carrier engagement where they used spotter plane

There is no place to hide big ship anymore. SM3 is not perfect yet . They are not even finished testing yet and easily fooled by counter measure and MIRV not to mention the violent terminal boost.

whatever test that they did are mostly dumbed down test with no real world relation

The first brigade of DF 21C is already forming as of last year


Last week, China’s state-run media quietly announced the construction of facilities for a new Second Artillery missile brigade – the 96166 Unit – in the northern Guangdong municipality of Shaoguan [韶关]. Although the province is already home to a Second Artillery short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) brigade (the 96169 unit in Meizhou), initial reports and indicators signal that the new unit could have unique capabilities that could complicate the strategic calculus in Asia, and the South China Sea in particular.

Although the introduction of the 1,700km range solid fuelled, terminally guided DF-21C ballistic missile into Guangdong is possible, the brigade is also a candidate to be the first unit equipped with the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). The DF-21C, first introduced into the active inventory in 2005, is designed to attack fixed targets on land. If an ASBM is successful in passing the necessary design reviews and a sufficient sensor network is in place, the Shaoguan brigade could become the first in the PLA to field a lethal capability against moving targets at sea out to a range of 1,500-2,000km or more from launch sites.

Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

Jeff Head said:

Its ability to alter a ballistic trajectory in terminal mode will be very limited. On top of that, there has been no observed live test over the ocean against a manueverabvle target...so we are not really sure 1) if it can do terminal guidance as claimed, or 2) If the system is at any stage of operation or deployment.

Time will tell.

My guess is that the ability to manuever will be very limited...and the laser, particularluy if it catches it while in reentry mode, will have the time to do its work.

As I say...time will tell. Right now we have a tested and deployed AEGIS BMD (on at least 5 cruisers and 16 destroyers as of late 2010) and a live fire tested laser. The DF-21D has no known operational tests at all.

But, for future carriers and capitol ships, like the PLAN carrier, the ability to successfully defend your vessel with lasers will be a huge step forward.

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It would probably be best for US vessels to use lasers to intercept AShMs or aircraft (where the missile does not have such a high velocity and unpredictability).

I believe the SM3 will eventually be aimed to intercept the DF-21D at mid course stage, when it is the slowest.