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supercat

supercat

Colonel
Hilarious indeed, considering DeSantis has a snowball in hell's chance to win the presidential election.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664133231921479681

It's good to know - China is coordinating naval operations in the Persian Gulf.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664333837403299843

Here a few million and there a few million, soon you became the biggest mass murder in history.

New study finds U.S. responsible for nearly 300 million deaths—and counting​

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Today's fine example of Western values:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663936163730817025
 
J

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
Quit using the PH into this discussion because THE PH MILITARY IS A CANNON FODDER PERIOD. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan sure but the PH hell NO. Please elucidate how the PH can make the PLA sweat or what meaningful contribution it can bring to the table against China. I can't wait for your reply.
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Export ban of bananas, pineapples, mangoes, and durians, let's see how long the PLA can sustain providing nutritional and balanced meals to the troops.

/sarc
 
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B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Eventine said:
I already said it: Taiwan.

Taiwan is a maritime fight. Not a land war. Therefore it'll be a naval and aerial conflict, and guess what, South Korea and Japan are both fairly competent naval and air powers. Both host US bases, as well, which means that if China starts bombing them directly, it'll trigger a war with the US.

I'm saying - this is the way they intend to engage - South Korea and Japan sail to Taiwan's defense on the front lines, while the US sits back and plays support. China is forced to fight those navies and air forces with one hand tied behind its back because if it starts bombing their bases, that triggers an all-out war vs. the US. So either China bites the bullet and goes all-out (low/moderate chance of victory) against the entire alliance, or (ideally for the US) it tries to do what Russia is doing in Ukraine, which is fight with one hand tied behind its back while the US supports from a distance. The latter may seem an "easier" fight but it is ultimately even more draining and beneficial to the US.
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Before you can defend ground you have to take it first.

How will just SK and Japan with their relatively paltry navies break through Chinese defenses and secure a beachhead?

What you'll end up with is a naval version of the Russian parade into Kiev except way worse because China likely has literally orders of magnitude more firepower than Ukraine.

Only a full on attack by all of America's forces would have a chance to break through.

US needs to make the war fast and make it's annexation of Taiwan a fait accompli before China can start to arm itself up.
 
M

montyp165

Senior Member
Eventine said:
Russia's been shot at for a year and still hasn't declared Ukraine to be an actual war. Ukrainian drones are literally flying into Moscow to assassinate Putin and he's still not declaring war. NATO trainers, advisors, spy planes, mercenaries, and special forces are operating in Ukraine right at this moment.

Countries will thread this needle every time when they want to avoid escalation. The US is betting that China won't be willing to escalate and so it can get away with having its East Asian vassals do the bulk of the work. It's betting that any conflict over Taiwan will be a limited conflict that is fought primarily over military targets. In such scenarios, South Korea and Japan can do a lot of damage without the US formally joining the war (because its defense treaties with Japan and South Korea only requires it to defend their land; it doesn't require it to defend their military assets sent against China).

I can easily see a future in which the US states, "we fully support our allies' committed defense of Taiwan and will do everything in our power to help them succeed. However, rest assured, American troops will not be fighting China."
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Any war will end up going total if it actually breaks out, but China is already near the point where it would be fully capable of doing to the US what the US did to Japan, even if the entire US and it's allies were fully engaged in the fighting, that's what folks don't seem to understand.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Eventine said:
I already said it: Taiwan.

Taiwan is a maritime fight. Not a land war. Therefore it'll be a naval and aerial conflict, and guess what, South Korea and Japan are both fairly competent naval and air powers. Both host US bases, as well, which means that if China starts bombing them directly, it'll trigger a war with the US.

I'm saying - this is the way they intend to engage - South Korea and Japan sail to Taiwan's defense on the front lines, while the US sits back and plays support. China is forced to fight those navies and air forces with one hand tied behind its back because if it starts bombing their bases, that triggers an all-out war vs. the US. So either China bites the bullet and goes all-out (low/moderate chance of victory) against the entire alliance, or (ideally for the US) it tries to do what Russia is doing in Ukraine, which is fight with one hand tied behind its back while the US supports from a distance. The latter may seem an "easier" fight but it is ultimately even more draining and beneficial to the US.
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If South Korea starts a fight with China, North Korea is going to be leveling Seoul, for starters.

If Japan decides to join the US in fighting China, you'd have to be deluded to think China won't be attacking Japanese bases. If the US then decides to join the fray, all US bases within range will be saying hello to DF missiles.

The Taiwan issue has been around for 70 years. I guarantee you any eventuality you can think of has already been played out hundreds of times by both sides. Nobody wants an actual war, not China, not the US, and most definitely not SK, Japan, or PH. That's why China has not started AR, and Taiwan has not declared independence.
 
J

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
montyp165 said:
Any war will end up going total if it actually breaks out, but China is already near the point where it would be fully capable of doing to the US what the US did to Japan, even if the entire US and it's allies were fully engaged in the fighting, that's what folks don't seem to understand.
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Capable of doing to the US what the US did to Japan, in what context and scope? To the US military assets in the West Pacific theater maybe, to the continental US I don't think so.
 
F

Feima

Junior Member
Registered Member
Eventine said:
Russia's been shot at for a year and still hasn't declared Ukraine to be an actual war. Ukrainian drones are literally flying into Moscow to assassinate Putin and he's still not declaring war. NATO trainers, advisors, spy planes, mercenaries, and special forces are operating in Ukraine right at this moment.
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Russia not declaring war is not necessarily because "Putin no balls." There are international laws and norms governing interaction between belligerents and neutrals. Given US is trigger-happy with imposing sanctions and the collective West acts like international laws don't apply to them, Russia being formally at war would complicate her dealings with Rest of World. Already the West is talking about 2nd order sanctions.

In the US, power to declare war rests with Congress. The last time Congress did so was in WW2. We all know the US hasn't stopped making war since then.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Freedom strikes again:

A former employee of Amazon’s Ring doorbell camera unit spied on female customers for months in 2017 with cameras placed in bedrooms and bathrooms, the Federal Trade Commission said in a court filing on Wednesday when it announced a $5.8m settlement with the company over privacy violations.

Amazon also agreed to pay $25m to settle allegations it violated children’s privacy rights when it failed to delete Alexa recordings at the request of parents and kept them longer than necessary, according to a court filing in federal court in Seattle that outlined a separate settlement....
 
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