Miscellaneous News

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
It started with China's ban of bitcoin mining, when bitcoin was trading at over $60,000. Then FTX crypto exchange crumbled, and then Silvergate Bank shut down, and now this SVB.
Yup and to think the morons were all freaking out over a Chinese weather ballon... talking about missing the forest for the trees

When Xi banned crypto there were even folks on this forum arguing how China was giving up easy money and oppurtunities for more wealth lol...

I have a feeling this is just the start of the domino chain reaction of things soon to come

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Consider that on the same day two US banks both failed within 48 hours of each other, of which at least one is the 2nd biggest fail in 40 years, and the greatest collapse of a bank since the Great Recession... coinciding with the China peace deal between Iran and Saudia Arabia... I would say the writing is on the wall.... Xi name dropped the US just days ago, this on the backs of the unprecedented publication of "US Hegemony and its Perils" whitepaper removes all doubt that China will come to US aid this time to prop them up or bail them out...

So its either hyperinflation or insanse interest rates... No way out this time... and you cant have a Petrodollar hegemony when you no longer control the petro/OPEC...

SVB is just merely the first to flop... but the underlining issue is structural and systemic...

This is gonna end up being ten times worse thab 2008, and thats a best case scenario.
they've historically picked insane interest rates. In 1981 the interest rate was 20%.

History-of-Treasury-Yields.png
 

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
Would this SVB collapse eventually result in the Great Financial Crisis 2.0? What do you guys think?

No.

That is the short answer. We might see a big rally in stocks Monday morning.

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The long story is rather convoluted. Summarize some basic points, very generally since I am not an expert.

1. Capitalism is and always has been an unstable system, subject to booms and busts, along with financial panics, and debt crisis. However, capitalism always manages to come back. The only real stable economic system is central planning, where it starts off okay, then goes straight to life support, until they finally pull the plug. That is why the Chinese Communist Party, has repeatedly said that they want the market to decide the allocation of inputs.

2. What happened in 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, was due to "systemic risk." That was how the New York financial industry, banks, investment banks, and insurance company, ran their industry, playing with derivatives. Okay, I don't think I want to explain this part anymore. This already looking like a real long ass post, heh.

3. What happened was credit dried up. Since the bank had to pay some other bank, due to derivative losses, they had to sell assets like stocks to pay. But the market was falling so they kept on selling. It got to a point where those financiers realized that something was wrong, and they decided not to lend money to each other. The defaults caused by the Lehman Brothers collapse, caused a credit crunch, which produced the Great Recession of 2008.

4. What is happening today this time to that Silicone Valley bank, appears to be entirely different. Remember, capitalism was always unstable, with panics and bank runs back in the previous century. The Federal Reserve Bank was created to maintain stability in the system. This crisis at that regional bank, seems tailor made for the role of the Fed. What we have here apparently is a classical bank run from antiquity. Bank need to hold reserves, or assets, to buttress their loans. If everyone withdraws their money all at once, the back has no assets, therefore, it is insolvent.

5. The simple solution is for someone bigger to buy this bank, and recapitalize it, and that problem is solved.

There is more to it, but this is already a long ass post. LOL.

:D
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
I mean, I haven't exactly hidden which side I'm on lol.

As a US citizen, working in DOD-land no less, it should be understandable that I want the US to do as well as possible. As a result, I do indeed consider China to be our #1 competitor. After all, I wouldn't be so disaffected about our (many) failings if I didn't want us to do better.

With that said, just because we're rivals doesn't mean that I have any ill-will towards the PRC. I personally believe competition is healthy, and that by having another country around who can actually punish our failures, we are more incentivized to innovate and better ourselves. Ideally, we would be able to achieve a peaceful but competitive co-existence, wherein both nations feel "pushed" to explore more, discover more, invent more, etc. than the other side. I believe that such a dynamic would be the best outcome not only for us, but for CN as well. I don't even think such a dynamic requires animosity between the sides.

However, this is obviously not the reality that we're trending towards. Instead of taking measures to materially improve our position, we instead dump resources into the same senselessness that got us here, opting instead to take petty potshots at China's own efforts to improve theirs. As others have said, yes, CHIPS and other similar acts have been cobbled together as a response to CN initiatives. While I am entirely on board with them in principle, the efforts themselves are often ensnared in political showmanship, lobbying concessions, and bureaucratic red tape, resulting in little more than big promises, high costs, and little gain. It is going to take a lot more than just throwing money, tax breaks, and slogans at our problems to fix them; and unless we're wiling to take such measures, no amount of ankle-biting sanctions or histrionic headlines is going to stop you guys from surpassing us.

As a bit of an aside, since the DC-fellating think tankies et al. are the ones doing some of the worst damage, calling them out for their imbecilic shrieking is actually doing us a favor. Just one example of how you guys giving us a wake-up smack every now and again is beneficial (not to mention, probably highly cathartic for folks on the CN side - and rightfully so, given how we've treated it).
Unfortunately for the USA to do as well as possible, the USA firmly intends to cripple its opposition by any means possible. Consider the destruction of the Nordstrom 2 pipelines and their attempts to sanction Russia into the ground to ruin Russia as major evidences of such an attempt. As such, it is no surprise that most of the world wants the USA to fall into ruin by their own hubris as the USA by all evidence available, the USA never intends to conduct themselves with fairness and honor. The USA can be given as many smacks to the head to make them understand that the world does not revolve around them and they still wouldn’t see reason and as the previous tweets show, they would rather repeat the same talking points about democracy and hope the problem will go away. At this rate, it will take a real collapse in society to wake them all up and by then it will be too late. Nothing you can say or do will change the end destination for the USA, so it’s probably better to plan you exit from the USA while their is still time, this is not a joke
 
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