Miscellaneous News

Sardaukar20 said:

China is already playing the Game Theory with the West, but not in they way they wanted it played. Game Theory was invented by the Western imperial powers to predict and game their adversaries through a combination of psychology and maths. Hence they do things to elicit responses from China and to hopefully get into its decision-making cycle. For example, by provoking proxy wars, bad economic policies, bad diplomacy, etc. China wants to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union, who had a history of responding directly to the US's moves. If you play the US's game, they'll win and you'll lose.

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Game theory is simply mathematics, which is pure and free of ideology. It does not matter if a westerner or easterner invented it. You can argue that people and countries are not logical engines that always acts rationally but tit-for-tat is entirely a reactive strategy, the player implementing it will be as rational or irrational as the other player.

Sardaukar20 said:

China have been evolving the way its been playing the Game. During the Trump administration, China was mostly reactive, appointing "wolf-warriors" like Zao Lijian to say shocking words at the US after the shocking things they did. Mirror tariffs, mirror sanctions, mirror kidnapping, etc. Math right? But pure math doesn't always work. For example, the US could always tariff way more Chinese imports than China could tariff American imports. Tariffs are also not healthy for the global competitiveness of the local industries in the long term. That is why it is not a good idea to do tit-for-tat tariffs just for the sake of math. Mirroring the opponent just to settle scores, is not smart. China is trying to be more strategic with its moves.

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Why must one mirror the tariffs? The point of the tariff is to deny access to the market and revenue. An equivalent amount of economic damage can be dealt by hurting their market access and revenue. Consider China's virtual monopoly on various rare earth elements. Ban their export to the US and leverage the bottleneck to cause supply shortage of downstream components. What the hell is Lockheed gonna do when the magnets they need to produce aircraft run out?

Sardaukar20 said:

China has to hurt the West in a more strategic way. Sanctioning Baerbock is gonna be so fun, but what is the long term benefit of that? She is just a sock puppet for the Yankees. So why not tariff European brandy to piss-off Macron? To remind the EU that they are all in this together. If Baerbock and Ursula does something stupid next again, maybe Meloni's Italian winemakers can get to feel the heat too. It puts all of EU on edge, slowly dividing it.

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These measures are effective though. The reason why EU policymakers are Washington stooges is because they have a cushy job lined up after they leave office. There will be less stooges willing to shill for US imperial interests if there was no golden parachute. Look at Pompeo now, emaciated and working for $80,000 a year at the Hudson Institute. You can take it even further and do what the west did to Carrie Lam. Threaten to ban any bank that takes their money and operates in China. You think JPMorgan would rather have Baerbock's money than do business in China? Leverage capitalist tendencies and make them infight.

Sardaukar20 said:

If you observe China these days, it appears more calm, it acts passive-aggressive, and is also taking a number of quiet victories. China doesn't need to telegraph to its adversaries what it intends to do. So when things happen, it surprises people, and makes us wonder if China had really planned these things out. Things like the Russia-China bromance, BRICS expansion, Saudi-Iran peace deal, etc. You need to zoom out and look at the bigger picture to see the Game in play today.

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Incredibly passive and reactive policy imo. How long do you expect the west to remain incompetent for? Alarm bells are already going off and things are beginning to move against the current. I advocate for taking proactive measures to create opportunities for exploit in the future. Begin by cleaning house and removing India from BRICS and SCO. If the US can be baited into another endless war far from China, that would be best.

Sardaukar20 said:

What cities did your extended family lived in? Is it the big ones?

The economy of China is changing, and this adjustment is very painful indeed. The pre-trade war economic model of contract manufacturing and property speculation is dead, and millions of urban Chinese got caught up in this. If you think the current economic malaise and "lost future" in China is bad. Take a look at the developed parts of SEA, South Asia, and the rest of the Global North. Unemployment and underemployment is up. Businesses have shuttered. Factories are closing down. Unlike in China, inflation is also rampant. Also like in urban China, the current generation cannot afford property like the last one. The whole global economy have been f**ked by the combo of Covid, the Ukraine War, and the new Middle East wars. People have to accept this fact and adjust the way they earn money, or get left behind. Yes this sucks. China is hurting, but the West and the rest are hurting just as much if not more. The West is making a big mistake by starting all these crap, and then doubling down on stupid. So the best course of action now is to allow them to continue effing up take more heat, which the CPC is doing quite well.

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I have family from tier 1 cities to rural villages. Elite business owners to humble farmers. Call them boomers if you wish but they are a good representation of the population and are having a hard time adapting. If you have enough of the population struggling, it naturally erodes trust in the government and domestic markets.

People now dunking on Xi for not trying to instigate WW3 with the West? Lol.

As I noted before, if it weren't for the US' dumb trade war antics then China would have been fine with the previous status quo. China isn't really out to overthrow the system, but simply to carve out a big enough space to be unshakable. That's my read anyway and Xi's comments seem to confirm it. This is one of many reasons why I am a BRICS skeptic.

China does push for status quo to change and evolve to China's liking. So I don't think China would be fine with the previous status quo 5 years ago even without the trade war. Nor will China be fine with today's statust quo in 10 years. That is why I believe confrontation is inevitable regardless in what form. Also remember trade war is NOT the begining of such change, it was Obama's failed attempt of G2. Trump may be more dramatic in tactic but he is doing what the collective US ruling class all wanted to do, from Clinton, Bush Junior, Obama, Trump and Biden and will continue untill US is exhausted.

China isn't different from any rising big powers before. For example, US pushed UK and France out of Africa and Western Asia in the post WWII years in the name of decolonization, replaced British Sterling and French Francs etc. as the world trade currency etc.

To climb up the ladder, one need stick and carrot. The stick to break the aspect of old order that doesn't fit me, the carrot is to make the older powers to concede without fight. For the US, the stick is "decolonization", threat of sanction on UK and France in suisse canal crisis, the carrot is the marshall plan, access to US market and investment. China today is doing the same, BRICS is one of the sticks while Xi's partnership with US is one of the carrots. They are not exclusive to one another. One should not expect any of them to work one hundred percent either. It is a long game, nothing on tactical level is certain, only the final objective and trend is certain.

What China's seemingly "soft" stance is like how US managed to have Europe to hand over their positions in the world peacefully instead of what Germany tried.

GZDRefugee said:

Why must one mirror the tariffs? The point of the tariff is to deny access to the market and revenue. An equivalent amount of economic damage can be dealt by hurting their market access and revenue. Consider China's virtual monopoly on various rare earth elements. Ban their export to the US and leverage the bottleneck to cause supply shortage of downstream components. What the hell is Lockheed gonna do when the magnets they need to produce aircraft run out?

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Western companies are already losing market to Chinese competitors at alarming rates, tariffs are just going to make the west retaliate more which isn't good for China.

Also, rare earth isn't that rare, China just does it the cheapest

GZDRefugee said:

I have family from tier 1 cities to rural villages. Elite business owners to humble farmers. Call them boomers if you wish but they are a good representation of the population and are having a hard time adapting. If you have enough of the population struggling, it naturally erodes trust in the government and domestic markets.

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Everyone everywhere is always struggling. Do you think Chinese 10 years ago isn't also struggling?

Corruption in the US, the Ozempic version:

Sample BRICS Pay card:

""It was in America's long-term national interest to have an active and constructive relationship with ," said Ford, William Ford, chairman and CEO of General Atlantic, quoting former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger."


"Hong Kong reclaimed its title as the world’s freest economy, topping 165 economies in “freedom to trade internationally” and “regulation,” according to the Canadian think tank Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World 2024 Annual Report released on Wednesday."

"China's Ministry of Commerce said Thursday the country is studying increasing tariffs on imported fuel-powered vehicles with large-displacement engines and a decision will be made prudently after comprehensive consideration of various factors."


"China saw 124 mineral deposits found in 2023, of which 16 were limestone and 10 were graphite deposits, making them the most abundant. By the end of 2023, a total of 173 kinds of minerals had been discovered in the country: Ministry of Natural Resources"

doggydogdo said:

Western companies are already losing market to Chinese competitors at alarming rates, tariffs are just going to make the west retaliate more which isn't good for China.

Also, rare earth isn't that rare, China just does it the cheapest

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Sanctions and tariffs are coming whether or not China swings back.

Sure they have rare earth deposits, but do they have the ability to extract and process them at scale? I'm going to use gallium, not a rare earth but still an element that China controls the bottleneck for, as an example. It is produced as a byproduct from refining aluminum. Do you know what infrastructure is required to produce gallium at the scale China does? A dedicated power grid with the capacity of the entire US power grid. Good fucking luck building such infrastructure in the EU or the US.

doggydogdo said:

Everyone everywhere is always struggling. Do you think Chinese 10 years ago isn't also struggling?

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My family went from peasants to lawyers, judges, university professors, factory owners, executives for internationals in the span of a single generation. So yes, I don't think they were particularly suffering in the last 10 years. Goddamnit, when my direct family immigrated to Canada, it probably killed our odds of upwards mobility. My parents sure as hell are the black sheep compared to their siblings.

China's strategy hasn't changed - to bide time to get stronger. Maybe China is already more powerful than the US, maybe not. The only thing that is certain is that under the current trajectory the balance of economic/tech/military power is shifting rapidly in China's favor, so why disrupt the status quo?
That's why Xi swallows his pride and the constant insults hurled by the US and plays the cooperative card.

When you take in the insult then its on you when NOT then its on them. So who is being insulted.

canonicalsadhu said:

China's strategy hasn't changed - to bide time to get stronger. Maybe China is already more powerful than the US, maybe not. The only thing that is certain is that under the current trajectory the balance of economic/tech/military power is shifting rapidly in China's favor, so why disrupt the status quo?
That's why Xi swallows his pride and the constant insults hurled by the US and plays the cooperative card.

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I think a lot of the worry stems from our own personal observations about the obsequious nature of many Chinese when it comes to dealing with foreigners and especially white westerners. From diaspora Chinese to China's economic "elite" and even to modern China's founding leaders like Sun Yat-sen, there is always the worry that many Chinese will sell their fellow kind down the river either to curry favor with foreigners or just due to fear and passivity.