A successful Pacific war requires Chinese blue water control of the Pacific Ocean.
That requires aircraft carriers, and China would need a bare minimum of another 10 years to build up a large enough force.
Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
A successful Pacific war requires Chinese blue water control of the Pacific Ocean.
That requires aircraft carriers, and China would need a bare minimum of another 10 years to build up a large enough force.
I bet Lai would welcome it.
He can continue pretending to be tough on China so his backers stop pestering him on it.
Then he can use the rest of his time focusing on his real goal of killing off all his rivals in Taiwan.
This is like if Nazis wanted to negotiate a ceasefire with Allies in 1944 where they get to keep France and Ukraine but promise they won't take UK or Moscow anymore.
All the more reasons for Endia to acquire those 10 submarines!
I don't necessarily think so. It's just a question of political will.
Even if you assume 1:1 gdp to warfighting capability between China and US, that still means China can put put 1.3x as much military hardware power. And China has tons of manpower.
In ww2, Japan took Philippines in 1 year, despite bungling the campaign. They took Manchuria (comparable population size to modern Japan) in 5 months. At its peak, Imperial Japan was roughly peer to the United front. Whereas modern China greatly overmatches modern Japan.
A war over Japan and especially over the Philippines needs not necessarily be a long campaign. China's dominant industry means that once the skies are open, they can nearly earmark 1 bomb each for every single person in say the Philippines. It's something even US at its height couldn't do, except for tiny countries like Panama.
Morale will crumple, and it's very likely that a goal target of of 5 months to 1 year can be repeated.
From a perspective of "can it be done", military subjugation of Philippines and Japan is possible, assuming wartime mobilisation by China.
Where it becomes much less certain is if the near peer US can throw 100% of its forces and fully mobilise to stop China in Asia.
From China's side, the current government would forbid it's national power to be used in this way, but we can't know if a future Chinese admin would feel pressed enough that it needs to attack. And in that case, the ability to achieve it is there already.
China can conquer phillipines and Japan. You just have to take the industrial capacity and manpower differential between china and those 2 countries.
The problem becomes in maintaining the occupation which would be a nightmare.
Pinoys are super submissive to authority. They wouldn't be difficult to occupy. China even already has potential compradors using the ethnic Chinese to run business and the communists to run security.
Japan is a mixed bag. In their ww2 era, they had the same fight to the last mindset as Chinese. They've since been westernised and cuckified over 70+ years.
In the best case, they might be like HK cockroaches, loud in anonymity but weak willed when it comes to acting.
In the worst case, they would be like how they were in ww2, in that case, China would need an occupation that may be as expensive (scaled to modern costs) as the Imperial Japanese occupation of Manchuria (since they have similar population of a similarly tough mindset).
But even that is not such a huge undertaking that it's an impossible nightmare. It'd just require political willpower from China and a mindset shift among many Chinese to be willing to take jobs in occupation regions.
To conquer Philippines or Japan, you'd be looking at deploying a bare minimum of 1 million soldiers each, and the ensuing campaign.
It's not worth it, if the alternative is a negotiated settlement because they have been successfully blockaded, which is far easier.
In a US-China conflict, it will be a primarily a naval-air war, where manpower for the Army is not an issue. But there are 2 caveats to this statement.
1. A naval-air war will be fought by the respective industrial bases of China and the US, where skilled manpower is very relevant.
2. I'm assuming that there won't be a war on the Korean peninsula, where the Chinese Army traps the US Army into fighting a land war, where the Chinese Army will have the advantage. I used to think this was more likely, but I don't think China has to resort to this anymore, because it can now win an air-sea war through Chinese industrial might. As per the US Navy briefing which states China has 232x the shipbuilding capacity and also the US Air Force briefing which states a 4x weapons development speed advantage and a hypersonic missile cost advantage of up to 20x.
But is it worth it?
Let's take an upper-case scenario for Philippines and Japan
a) 1000 Chinese cruise missiles per day (as per the CCTV newsreel documentary)
b) Then presumably add a minimum of another 3000 Shaheed-type cruise missiles per day, because they are so much cheaper than a high-end cruise missile, plus China will have spare motorcycle engine and CNC machining capacity to do this.
That is 120K aimpoints per month, just from these 2 systems.
You're looking at total industrial and economic devastation in Japan and the Philippines.
For example, the electricity grid is gone. The airports and seaports aren't operational.
Does China really need to invade Japan or the Philippines? Or would they decide to ditch the US alliance
The Japanese will greatly appreciate if China do invade, why? to push out the Americans and be a normal country again. That's the goal of Shinsho Abe to change the constitution which is forced on them by the American. Simple Logic If the Japanese are allowed to rearmed then there is NO need for the American bases in Japan. Behind those smiling faces the Japanese hated the American more than the Chinese, they're being humiliated again and again, raping their women, sabotaging their economy and let's not forget being nuked NOT ONCE BUT TWICE. It's Japan version of hundred years of humiliation.
And The American know this that's why they tighten the leash, they don't trust the Japanese because of Pearl Harbor and also by destroying the myth of Western superiority.
Mindanao has always been the most difficult and challenging for all the colonizers to subdue and subjugate. Note that the separatist movement is very much strong and alive in the southern part of the Philippines, which is Mindanao along with the areas that predominantly of Muslim disparate groups.
If China were to occupy the country it should try to enlist or co-opt those groups and work to pacify the usually pliant population whose bark has always been louder and meaner than their bite.
Pacification of the main island in the north like Luzon and the Visayas regions in my opinion would not put up any strong resistance especially if and when the mighty U.S. (that most of these folks wishfully depend on) either breaks or shattered ( The PH center of gravity is the U.S. military) leading to their cowardly leaders to be the first to welcome their new colonizers.