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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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Another example where the Western media wants to deflect a story about Americans raping Japanese children to be about how evil China is victimizing Japan because they won't buy their radioactive fish.

All trade is in the end about making money because money is the key to getting anything. Money is money no matter if it comes from selling advanced technology or selling fruits and vegetables. You hear from US pundits and think tanks about how they want to undermine China's economy as a whole because that's what fueling China's economic and technological rise. Is China selling advanced technology that no one else has hence they're making lots of money. No. That's why the US and Europe are in panic when China doesn't buy what they're okay with selling to China because in the end money is money and they need it.

Rahm Emanuel still being the face of selling Japanese fish? I thought he was the US ambassador to Japan. Does Rahm Emanuel think he's a movie star where he can endorse a product and people will buy it? And he thinks he has that kind of star power in China where he can get Chinese to buy and eat radioactive fish. This shows you how selling the little stuff is just as important as selling the big stuff. China not buying their fruits and vegetables is just as powerful as them not selling their advanced technology to China. You know how they were taunting that Huawei and therefore China was going to collapse because of Western sanctions? Not buying their fruits and vegetables can have the same effect on them.
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
also you quickly notice that all the people who originally did science were from the nobility. They had the time and money and didn't need to do any work. It was essentially all hobby work... There is an odd benefit to feudalism to have a bunch of the most well educated people laying around with free money and time.
We've found iron smelting methods in industrial use during the 11th century Song that were originally thought to be discovered be 18th century British theorists (the same sort that created the demand for industrial-revolution-level-coal-mining). Innovation doesn't come from nobility, it comes from doing. That's why innovation happens today in China, it starts from the factory floor.

If free-time nobility was where all innovation came from why did it take until the 17-18th century for inventions to start being generated in Europe when they had nobility and feudalism since the Romans? Why were all the inventions like blast furnaces, plowshares, seed drilling, crop rotation, paper/fiat currency (and their monetary theories), gunpowder/rockets, merit-based civil service, and many more political, economic, and industrial inventions flowing from East to West rather than the other way around for almost all of human history if nobles/feudalism was what was required for inventing?

The simple reality is Europe was not a productive region until the industrial revolution. For most of written history, China (and to a lesser extent the near east) was the most productive region. European dominance was a confluence of very specific historical circumstances.

Incoming wall of text:



The Song-Jin area housed about 108 million in 1210 (the cusp of the Mongol wars) which then fell to 75 million by 1292(early Yuan), a decline of 30%. The soon after Yuan-Ming transition further caused a population decline of 23% (87 million in 1351, 67 million in 1381). Given this was happening in Chinese-style proto-total war, it meant mass migration, abandonment of many northern capital-intensive industrial sites, as well as the atomization of expertise. The result was relative technological stagnation because societies took time to recover, redevelop, and reach critical mass to start inventing again.

For the Song-Yuan-Ming transitions, pretty much only Jiangnan (modern day lower Jiangsu/Zhejiang) was left unscarred and that meant much of the focus was adapting agricultural techniques to the low-lying marshy lands of the Yellow River delta as well as the capital and labor-intensive work of draining swamps and making the land ready to farm. Markets and industrial sites were mostly situated outside of Jiangnan and destroyed by the Song-Yuan transition.

In addition, the earlier failure of the early Song in retaining the Sixteen Prefectures resulted in the lost of power by state-activists such as Wang Anshi and the increasing decentralization and power-transfer from officialdom to the emerging agricultural landlord-gentry. As the Zhu Yuangzhang (Hongwu Emperor of Ming) rose, he took care to destroy the emerging landlord-gentry & merchant class by confiscating their wealth and breaking their clans apart by forcible migrating them piecemeal into separate prefectures and towns. Some of the agricultural innovations were spread this way out of Jiangnan, as well as essays written by officials through all three dynasties, leading to the average yields per mu roughly increasing from 1 shi/mu in late Song to 1.6 shi/mu to early Ming. This was equivalent to increasing from 13 shi/worker to 16 shi/worker since the average Ming farm was half the size of those in the Song. Remember the introduction of New World crops took place in the Qing, so this was all agricultural development.

But this destruction of the landlord-gentry was quickly squandered as the later emperors were marked by a withdrawal of state industrial activities. This resulted in the worst of situations, no capital in towns to develop distributed market towns (as in the Song and early industrial Britain) and no effective use of state power to direct capital. From early Ming to late Qing, the society became increasingly feudal and increasingly stagnant (I thought feudalism is supposed to be good for innovation? lol). The Qing had about the same number of magistrates governing the prefectures from the beginning to the end despite the general population growing 5-fold over the span of the dynasty.

It took until the 16th century for market towns to start reappearing in China, this time based around the cotton and silk trade. Indeed, they were noted as though they were a new form of development at the time despite having existed 5 centuries prior in the Song! At this time though, there was no state capacity to direct capital to invest in heavy industry (capital-intensive and would result in investment into labor-saving machinery), instead they were all focused into light industry such as commercial book printing which poets complained only consisted of fluff and trashy stories. (I would like to point out that this sounds like a lot of Western economies these days - without state direction, capital flows towards the quickest buck, not the expensive but potentially transformative. Hence in their day, into light industry, in our day, into FIRE)


Meanwhile, Europe went through the Black Death which did not cause mass migration and abandonment of existing capital-intensive sites. It was also far more targeted at commoners than the nobles (the administrative class in Europe) resulting in both much higher labor costs and much greater state directive capacity. Then Pax Mongolia resulted in technological spread to Europe as well as the relative destructive of their technological competitors in China and the near east basically leveling the playing field previously built up by many centuries. This was followed up by the enormous wealth transfer from the conquest of the New World resulting in the trifecta of vast amounts of capital, insufficient labor, and effective state capacity. A perfect storm for the self-reinforcing development of labor-saving devices (industrial revolution). Even then, it was only possible because Britain had started the industrial production of iron (same as 11th century Song) through the use of coal and early steam engines were only past breakeven in profitability whilst working on pumping out water from flooded coal mines. That is, a very capital intensive machine was only barely profitable because they were financed by American silver/gold and consuming the very material they were being used to mined out (coal) - that's as free as it gets!
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This doesn't really answer the question: what prevents China from adopting a policy towards a sanctioned Iran that is similar to a sanctioned Russia? Or in other words, why is deepening relations with Iran akin to burning bridges with the West, but not when relations are deepened with Russia whom now is more heavily sanctioned by the West?
Iran is less powerful than Russia. It is less stable, and actually more vulnerable to being couped or directly militarily conquered should the US decide that it must be done. If this happens, all of China's investments in it are lost because we are not ready to fight a long distance war to defend Iran (nor are they friendly enough towards us to deserve it). So it is much riskier than Russia with much less rewards even when successful.

Iran shares no border with China. It is much cheaper due to ease of transport and more natural to trade more with a country that shares a large border with you. It's easier to beef up the volume and it's easier to secure deliveries on both sides without worry of third party foul play. This factor played a major role in how fast the Russian economy could tilt towards China but it is not there with Iran. Americans are literally pirates at sea when they see Iranian oil tankers. Russian oil comes safetly and on time every time by pipeline. Borders are important.

Iran has enmity with Saudi Arabia, with whom China must balance our relationship. Although it seems China is making headway closing that gap.

A radical Iran has a sworn dedication to the erradication of Israel, which is much more radical than Russia's stated goals so it would be more socially jarring to support such a country. Trade with a radical Iran would be much more comparable to a North Korea, except with no shared borders than a mighty and bordering Russia.
 
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coolgod

Major
Registered Member
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BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Looks like someone in Berlin failed to spread Beijing's memo to his colleague.

The germans can't stop getting those diplomatic Ls....

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Basically PNAC but renewed at quarter century

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Is Project 2025 Trump's version of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion to rally all US leftist faction behind Biden.
 

Index

Junior Member
Registered Member
This doesn't really answer the question: what prevents China from adopting a policy towards a sanctioned Iran that is similar to a sanctioned Russia? Or in other words, why is deepening relations with Iran akin to burning bridges with the West, but not when relations are deepened with Russia whom now is more heavily sanctioned by the West?
The basis of trade is mutual needs. In terms of trade, China simply only wants hydrocarbons from Iran. In return for just that, China can't give exactly everything to Iran.

Just because they are an ally doesn't mean free trade can be totally bypassed. Iranian products and industry are not that competitive, and Iran doesn't market itself much to tourism.

What you're asking seems to be less "why doesn't China deepen trade with Iran" but more like "why doesn't China fund Iran like US funds Israel". Since Iran economy is steadily growing and not impacted by war, one answer would be that there's no need to fund them. Funding people has it's own risks, because the return are often not linear. The more money you fund with, the more disappears from corruption, and the more atrophied the pillars of the original state becomes, until they lose the ability to develop indigenous markets.

We don't really want an Iran that doesn't care about it's state expenditure because they're backed by the top world economy. Its better to have an Iran that must be accountable to their people, one that has to through trial and error find their own development path (with China only assisting if things go very wrong).
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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That's what I would do from the beginning... They've been saying why China wants to takeover Taiwan so they can take Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing secrets. When Taiwan was known for just making rubber dog poop for the US, China still wanted Taiwan. So it has nothing to do with taking Taiwan's' semiconductor secrets for themselves. That's what they've been saying to make themselves to feel important. It's in the same vein as Americans claiming foreigners want to take over the US just so they can rape white women.

Strategically you would want to destroy Taiwan's technological base in order to remove any importance Taiwan has to the West. It's the only reason why the West sees Taiwan as being important to them therefore they would be less likely to take actions where they would before. Taiwan is important to them because of access to technology. Take that away and the West's technological advancement grinds to a halt. That happens instantaneously while making sure in an invasion not to damage Taiwan's technology infrastructure won't do that.

Taiwan has entertained that they would destroy their own technological base if China were to invade to prevent them from taking their secrets. Wouldn't it be funny where China only had to to say, "Boo!" and Taiwan immediately blew up their own facilities. They would've removed themselves off the gameboard without China having to do anything.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
I said pretty much the same thing a long time ago. China could take out Taiwan and South Korea's semiconductor manufacturing and they would wipe out most advanced semiconductor manufacturing out of the map. It would take a decade of fab construction costing many hundreds of billions to start to recover. And a total recovery could be two decades and a couple trillion in the making.

If China is cut out of advanced chip supply from Taiwan and South Korea by Western sanctions, then these countries lose much of their significance as trade partners to China. Half of Taiwan's exports to China are ICs. A third of South Korea's exports to China are ICs. Much of the remainder is exports of polymers and other petrochemical products. Which China is currently working on eliminating with its own production.

By taking the Taiwanese and South Korean electronics industry out then China would turn this into a lose-lose situation where not only China loses access to these imports, but also the West. Companies like AMD, Apple, Qualcomm, Mediatek, and Nvidia would implode.
 

supercat

Major
China must pay the U.S. $18 TRILLION for Covid-19 related damage according to the bipartisan report to be released this Monday. .

Sure.

New study finds U.S. responsible for nearly 300 million deaths—and counting

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Talking about COVID-19, I'm shocked, shocked, to find out that information about the US regime's biological warfare during the Korea War are being censored on Twitter!

"Creepy water park with actors play in it"? "Westerners think the world exists to please/impress them."

I'm pulling my hairs out: who could have possibly bombed a school in Gaza? A school, for God's sake!

LMAO - The Economist citing a "leaked report from DoD":
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
The basis of trade is mutual needs. In terms of trade, China simply only wants hydrocarbons from Iran. In return for just that, China can't give exactly everything to Iran.

Just because they are an ally doesn't mean free trade can be totally bypassed. Iranian products and industry are not that competitive, and Iran doesn't market itself much to tourism.

What you're asking seems to be less "why doesn't China deepen trade with Iran" but more like "why doesn't China fund Iran like US funds Israel". Since Iran economy is steadily growing and not impacted by war, one answer would be that there's no need to fund them. Funding people has it's own risks, because the return are often not linear. The more money you fund with, the more disappears from corruption, and the more atrophied the pillars of the original state becomes, until they lose the ability to develop indigenous markets.

We don't really want an Iran that doesn't care about it's state expenditure because they're backed by the top world economy. Its better to have an Iran that must be accountable to their people, one that has to through trial and error find their own development path (with China only assisting if things go very wrong).
Iran wouldn't need Chinese help if it weren't for American sanctions. So it would be in China's interest to demonstrate that sanctions against Iran fail. Just as it is in China's interest to demonstrate that the Russian economy is resilient under sanctions. Because this makes a full economic war between the west and China less likely. If the US and EU start believing that their sanctions are counterproductive because the Russian economy is simply becoming sinified, that should protect China in the future. Russia and China missed an opportunity, or maybe weren't ready yet, when Trump did his economic attack on Iran. Maybe a lot of Russia sanctions could have been avoided if the deep recession post Trump sanctions in Iran had been avoided. The Iran sanctions are certainly the template for what's been done regarding Russia, and it will be a template for decoupling from China in a Taiwan crisis

It's also advantageous to build up the economy in enemies of America just to avoid their governments from falling and to build a larger free trade region of countries that don't use western systems, currencies or export markets
 
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