This is a podcast from CSIS that discussed China's ACTIVE DEFENSE strategy based upon a book with the same name written by M. Taylor Fravel along with the retired Lt.Gen. Charles Hooper. The podcast delve into the evolution and modernization of the Chinese PLA the impetus of its modernization efforts that's still ongoing.
Both "experts" agreed that the Chinese are astute students and learners of grand strategy, military strategy as well as history (both western and Chinese) but the retired General isn't sure nor convinced based on the dearth of Chinese experience in modern combined arms that it'll be able to accomplish what it's stated goals and aims with respect to Taiwan operation and elsewhere.
Gen. Hooper's is really passionate on his argument that despite Chinese modernization efforts which is very impressive and worthy of respect he doesn't or rather couldn't shake his belief that the Chinese leadership and the "PARTY MILITARY" can think and conduct any form of warfare on any domain absent rigid party established hierchy. The charge essentially suggest that Chinese PLA from its leaders down to its people are doctrine/ideologically centric rather than being trained or the mentality of flexibility, imaginative, and combat innovative. He supports his thesis on the personal anecdotal experience he's had from the talks he made with PLA officers.
He likened the PLA potential combat performance to that of the Russian military that's currently busy invading/liberating it's neighbor country, Ukraine.
The PLA like Russia may suffer the same predicament and difficulties based on corruption, the quality of people compared to what the U.S. military possess in spades, not to mention the experience of unending warfare for over 2 decades.
The potential war with China will not be a localized war as the Chinese strategy would want it since places like Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan have world wide strategic implications and importance especially with Taiwan being the source of 90% of the world's semiconductor and the other 4 countries being U.S. defense treaty signatories. Meaning, that any kinetic actions or even a blockade involving these said places will be a world conflict a.k.a. World War. North Korea may take action, India and others in the region.
Professor Fravel is more measured with his comments on the potential capabilities of the PLA that may surprise many people in the world. He believes that Chinese military capabilities is now buttress by the very fact that China is now an advanced technological country and an industrial powerhouse supported by a population that's among the brightest in the world. Since much of the supposed "western military innovation" can be traced to its economic and technological advantages compared to much of the world that's saddled with extreme poverty and illiteracy during much of it's reign.
