Miscellaneous News

Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
View attachment 130668
Click to expand...

A good and educational watch on the current trajectory and iteration of the Sino-American conflict that's affecting the academia in both countries. Most unfortunate is the banning or slow banning of Chinese PhD candidates that are enrolled in American universities out of American insecurity that it'll further advance CHINA's lead in the technological competition.

What the American zeitgeist are not appreciating however is the negative results and the reverse brain drain it'll do to its technological dominance or efforts to remain on top of the tech chain.

 
I

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
A war will go through the Philippines? How would that look? Are you suggesting China invade the Philippines, because there is no way Philippines can legitimately threaten China.

The most modern fighter is the Korean FA-50 which is a converted trainer with limited range and small radar
Navy has zero destroyers
Army cannot be transported anywhere since it is an archipelago.

In theory, a single 055 would have enough firepower on it's own to wipe out most of their armed forces. Chinese Tom Clancy could write the book "DDG".

Someone suggested US and Taiwan could "donate" weapons. No, this isn't some Javelins or Bradleys. You would have to donate entire ships and dozens of aircraft which is simply impossible. You would not be able to hide the thousands of personnel to support such an effort.
Click to expand...
It's smarter for US than the alternative war plan, which is to somehow swim an invasion force through all of China's defenses into Taiwan, ignoring the fact that the 30 ish total bases + carrier groups create perfect bottlenecks for the virtually unlimited firepower that can be brought on them.

At least sacrificing the Philippines won't lose US so many soldiers it's impossible to censor the casualties.

How would such a war look like? Not good for the Philippines. It could perhaps be instigated if Pinoy nationalists can be goaded into such a heinous criminal act that China has no choice but to depose their regime in order to show its own population and Asia at large that security remains in Asia.

China is obviously not going to stupidly engage in urban combat without extensively having degraded the enemy willingness and ability to resist.

We would see the first instance of a fully industrialized 1 sided war in the current century, and if nothing else even if China is unlike to sustain much human losses, Americans can walk away with a treasure trove of atrocity propaganda shots, coping that they've wasted Chinese ammunition.

And America may sacrifice the Philippines because they're going to lose it sooner or later. It's an unstable state, stuck in non development and with permanent rebel problems. It's only a matter of time until China either *provides* security and development to them by their own request, or they are couped.
 
Last edited:
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Xiongmao said:
If that is the price to be paid, then better let the Philippines have their islands, at least for now. Then retake them after 2050 when China's position as the most powerful country has been cemented.
Click to expand...
It doesn't matter when China is stronger in 2050 to claim those islands back. Give the enemies an inch, they'll demand a mile next. Because China had backed down, they'll assume that China is a "paper tiger", hence they can continue to keep pushing China, and crossing new red lines. Next thing they'll do is put a US military bases with long-ranged missiles on those PH-claimed islands. Then the Americans and its lackeys will push the PH to start claiming more SCS islands. Next, they'll give the greenlight to the DPP to declare Taiwan's independence, because China's red lines were apparently bluffs. China had backed down to little PH after all. After that, they'll eye for Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. It won't end until China fights back, and then its gonna be war again. But China will be in an even weaker position than before giving in to the PH.

We already know the fate of the Qing Dynasty. They've backed down, and backed down to the imperial powers. They've tried to buy time to hopefully improve their military and economic strength. Yet the imperial powers kept pushing and pushing. Chinese territories continued to be lost here and there. Then the Japanese finally went ahead and waged total war to try to take even larger chunks of China. They just won't stop until China is destroyed or fully colonized.

All of the negative shocks of a proxy war that I've mentioned before, China can eventually overcome them with enough patience. The West and its lackeys will not get away at no cost. China is not just a massive market, it is THE market. It is also THE most important country in the global supply chain. If any nation wants to remove China from its economic equation, then they should prepare for GDP regression back to the 1990s or worse. Any radical economic attack on China will surely result in MAD. If China stood its ground, the overall cost that it suffers will be less than if it gave in to Western pressure.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
I anticipate that there will be a number of initial negative shocks for China in a PH-China proxy war.

1) First, there will be the mother of all economic sanctions. The US will look at any proxy war with China as the greatest opportunity to kneecap China's economy. We should expect all kinds of sanctions. The Republican chicken hawks have already telegraphed to everyone their intention to nullify the debt owed to China. The US will attempt to seize Chinese USDs and assets in their banks. Kicking China out of SWIFT is definitely on the cards. All of this is not without grave consequences for the Americans, but they are not being led by smart people these days.

China will have to ride out the initial economic shocks. It'll be painful, it'll upset alot of Chinese, but this is when Chinese patriotism will shine through. This is the period where all those hanjians will start to show their faces. This will be a great opportunity to weed out the traitors. This is also an excellent opportunity to restructure the economy to make it much more war-resistant against the West. I believe that the CPC would have already learned much from the Ukraine War.

2) Second, there will be another great information war. I anticipate that the PLAN might suffer some minor setbacks during the initial phases. China had not been in war for decades already, so there will be some rustiness. Maybe a plane gets shot down, or a ship get hit. The anti-China media will be spare no effort to humiliate the PLAN and hype up the "brave Filipinos".

China will have to manage the image of the PLA, especially among the Chinese citizens. Just like in Russia, there should be severe punishments for Chinese citizens who insult the PLA in a time of war. Losses are inevitable, and all war is hell, even a righteous one. The PLA needs to focus on its job of defeating the enemy, and the last thing it needs are political distractions. Eventually the mistakes will lessen, and the fight will go even more their way.

3) The West will organize a general boycott and shaming of China. China shall be cancelled everywhere. In sports, in media, and in trade. We should expect bans for Chinese athletes in the Olympics and other Western-led sporting events. Some big brands might cancel commercial deals with China just like they did with Russia, so good riddance to them. China might get disinvited by several Western-organized forums. Anti-China countries might suspend entry for Chinese visas. Chinese-owned overseas assets might get confiscated by hostile governments. The West along with their lackeys will surely attempt to pass multiple UN condemnations of China. Basically it's gonna be another round of turbocharged Sinophobia racism, but worse than the one during the Covid years.

I believe that the Trump administration and Covid will have already toughened the Chinese to any further Sinophobia. Nothing much is gonna shock them anymore. So this negative setback should be the easiest to overcome. Some sporting and commercial events will be missed, but the nation always comes first.

4) This is speculative, but maybe the West will also attempt to organize a shadow blockade of China. They are likely to give the PH the weapons and the intelligence to strike at any Chinese civilian shipping that they can reach. They'll declare Chinese civilian vessels as "fair game", because they make and bend the rules. Western shipping firms will declare the SCS a conflict zone and therefore decline to provide shipping insurance. The anti-China countries might attempt to decouple as best they can, some might even go all the way to complete decoupling. That's gonna be their loss anyway.

This would be the time for China to activate its alternative trade routes built under the BRI program. China's trade network will have to be adjusted to reflect the new reality. It'll still hurt China's economy, but China can recover and still prosper once the adjustments are completed. China is the largest trading nation on earth, so anybody attempting to curtail is trade is gonna end up hurting the global economy, i.e.: themselves included.
Click to expand...
It will be the greatest boon to Chinese economy. Like Russia, China has no limit in potentials, what they need is pressure to do the right thing. Like Russia, sanctions will force Chinese to do the right thing which is to invest in long term industrial capability, rather than chase short term profits. I for one love to have a sanction imposed on China, because there are too much greedy bastards in China not willing to work for long term goals. They have all the capabilities, but need a kick in the gut to start working.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The Philippines is a total none starter. Americans might want it to be the Asian Ukraine when it’s almost certainly going to be the next Asian Georgia if they pushed China into open combat.

China can effectively erase the Philippines military capability without breaking a sweat and probably just using obsolete munitions due to be retired and scrapped soon. Take out key dual use infrastructure like power generation, bridges ports and the like and just watch the whole country implode without needing to put one boot PLA boot in Philippines territory. Well, maybe the PLA will take a few of the most choice islands while they are at it.

The only way the Philippines manages to put up any sort of actual fight is if the Americans move in en mass and do the heavy lifting for them, in which case it’s basically AR at that point. That is the main reason China is showing restraint, as it doesn’t want anyone else setting the timetable for AR.

But if China has decided to do AR, starting with the Philippines could be a good way to bait the Americans into starting a bar fight whole the PLA has a MBT waiting in the parking lot to finish the fight.

Just turn up the heat with Chinese coast guard ships bullet hosing Philippines ships in front of USN warships and daring the Americans to do something about it. As soon as they do, China launches a massive full spectrum attack and deletes all USN surface vessels in East Asia.

The Americans are not stupid, which is why their carriers are always far away and heading further away whenever things looks like it’s heating up in the SCS with the Philippines.
 
N

nemo

Junior Member

If this report is correct, Philippine garrison on BRP Sierra Madre is sabotaging and stealing fishing nets. Bad move. It may in fact give PRC an excuse to resolve this situation permanently -- by dispatching Coast Guard to arrest the garrison on Sierra Madre for theft. Note this is an CIVILIAN dispute, unless Philippine garrison open fire, at which point it becomes military dispute and PLAN now has an excuse to step in.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
It doesn't matter when China is stronger in 2050 to claim those islands back. Give the enemies an inch, they'll demand a mile next. Because China had backed down, they'll assume that China is a "paper tiger", hence they can continue to keep pushing China, and crossing new red lines. Next thing they'll do is put a US military bases with long-ranged missiles on those PH-claimed islands. Then the Americans and its lackeys will push the PH to start claiming more SCS islands. Next, they'll give the greenlight to the DPP to declare Taiwan's independence, because China's red lines were apparently bluffs. China had backed down to little PH after all. After that, they'll eye for Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. It won't end until China fights back, and then its gonna be war again. But China will be in an even weaker position than before giving in to the PH.

We already know the fate of the Qing Dynasty. They've backed down, and backed down to the imperial powers. They've tried to buy time to hopefully improve their military and economic strength. Yet the imperial powers kept pushing and pushing. Chinese territories continued to be lost here and there. Then the Japanese finally went ahead and waged total war to try to take even larger chunks of China. They just won't stop until China is destroyed or fully colonized.

All of the negative shocks of a proxy war that I've mentioned before, China can eventually overcome them with enough patience. The West and its lackeys will not get away at no cost. China is not just a massive market, it is THE market. It is also THE most important country in the global supply chain. If any nation wants to remove China from its economic equation, then they should prepare for GDP regression back to the 1990s or worse. Any radical economic attack on China will surely result in MAD. If China stood its ground, the overall cost that it suffers will be less than if it gave in to Western pressure.
Click to expand...
Remember that the Qing lost multiple wars with steel battleships while Zulu won with spears and rocks against machine guns.

That is how important the will to fight is. It isn't a cope to say that it is just as important as technology... it really is.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
It doesn't matter when China is stronger in 2050 to claim those islands back. Give the enemies an inch, they'll demand a mile next. Because China had backed down, they'll assume that China is a "paper tiger", hence they can continue to keep pushing China, and crossing new red lines. Next thing they'll do is put a US military bases with long-ranged missiles on those PH-claimed islands. Then the Americans and its lackeys will push the PH to start claiming more SCS islands. Next, they'll give the greenlight to the DPP to declare Taiwan's independence, because China's red lines were apparently bluffs. China had backed down to little PH after all. After that, they'll eye for Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. It won't end until China fights back, and then its gonna be war again. But China will be in an even weaker position than before giving in to the PH.

We already know the fate of the Qing Dynasty. They've backed down, and backed down to the imperial powers. They've tried to buy time to hopefully improve their military and economic strength. Yet the imperial powers kept pushing and pushing. Chinese territories continued to be lost here and there. Then the Japanese finally went ahead and waged total war to try to take even larger chunks of China. They just won't stop until China is destroyed or fully colonized.

All of the negative shocks of a proxy war that I've mentioned before, China can eventually overcome them with enough patience. The West and its lackeys will not get away at no cost. China is not just a massive market, it is THE market. It is also THE most important country in the global supply chain. If any nation wants to remove China from its economic equation, then they should prepare for GDP regression back to the 1990s or worse. Any radical economic attack on China will surely result in MAD. If China stood its ground, the overall cost that it suffers will be less than if it gave in to Western pressure.
Click to expand...
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is a podcast from CSIS that discussed China's ACTIVE DEFENSE strategy based upon a book with the same name written by M. Taylor Fravel along with the retired Lt.Gen. Charles Hooper. The podcast delve into the evolution and modernization of the Chinese PLA the impetus of its modernization efforts that's still ongoing.

Both "experts" agreed that the Chinese are astute students and learners of grand strategy, military strategy as well as history (both western and Chinese) but the retired General isn't sure nor convinced based on the dearth of Chinese experience in modern combined arms that it'll be able to accomplish what it's stated goals and aims with respect to Taiwan operation and elsewhere.

Gen. Hooper's is really passionate on his argument that despite Chinese modernization efforts which is very impressive and worthy of respect he doesn't or rather couldn't shake his belief that the Chinese leadership and the "PARTY MILITARY" can think and conduct any form of warfare on any domain absent rigid party established hierchy. The charge essentially suggest that Chinese PLA from its leaders down to its people are doctrine/ideologically centric rather than being trained or the mentality of flexibility, imaginative, and combat innovative. He supports his thesis on the personal anecdotal experience he's had from the talks he made with PLA officers.

He likened the PLA potential combat performance to that of the Russian military that's currently busy invading/liberating it's neighbor country, Ukraine.

The PLA like Russia may suffer the same predicament and difficulties based on corruption, the quality of people compared to what the U.S. military possess in spades, not to mention the experience of unending warfare for over 2 decades.

The potential war with China will not be a localized war as the Chinese strategy would want it since places like Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan have world wide strategic implications and importance especially with Taiwan being the source of 90% of the world's semiconductor and the other 4 countries being U.S. defense treaty signatories. Meaning, that any kinetic actions or even a blockade involving these said places will be a world conflict a.k.a. World War. North Korea may take action, India and others in the region.

Professor Fravel is more measured with his comments on the potential capabilities of the PLA that may surprise many people in the world. He believes that Chinese military capabilities is now buttress by the very fact that China is now an advanced technological country and an industrial powerhouse supported by a population that's among the brightest in the world. Since much of the supposed "western military innovation" can be traced to its economic and technological advantages compared to much of the world that's saddled with extreme poverty and illiteracy during much of it's reign.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
It will be the greatest boon to Chinese economy. Like Russia, China has no limit in potentials, what they need is pressure to do the right thing. Like Russia, sanctions will force Chinese to do the right thing which is to invest in long term industrial capability, rather than chase short term profits. I for one love to have a sanction imposed on China, because there are too much greedy bastards in China not willing to work for long term goals. They have all the capabilities, but need a kick in the gut to start working.
Click to expand...
There's a lot of people in China that wants to achieve RICH status quick which is why some of them have decided to leave the country and head to the U.S. to achieve that mission. According to some of the idiots shown on CNA episode 2 documentary, making $2,000 to 3,000 a month isn't suitable for them anymore. And if they can't make more than that they much rather do nothing. All I can say to that is LOL.. delusional much??

Screenshot_2024-06-05-14-47-07-25_f549d92f2139e58231f988f2c4db8084.jpg

Courtesy of Li Pengii from the WUMAO Club on QUORA.
 
C

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
There's a lot of people in China that wants to achieve RICH status quick which is why some of them have decided to leave the country and head to the U.S. to achieve that mission. According to some of the idiots shown on CNA episode 2 documentary, making $2,000 to 3,000 a month isn't suitable for them anymore. And if they can't make more than that they much rather do nothing. All I can say to that is LOL.. delusional much??

View attachment 130675

Courtesy of Li Pengii from the WUMAO Club on QUORA.
Click to expand...
Honestly, hanjian with that kind of loser mentality are better off being mass deported to the West anyways. Either that or be used as cannon fodder. Or both. Be deported to the West to then be used as cannon fodder in Ukraine and elsewhere.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top