Miscellaneous News

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Two countries with a combined GDP of ~15% of the U.S. level and declining? Okay
For free? I'll take 'em.
Developing countries can’t afford to be ideological. They wheel and deal as it comes.
Same thing with developed countries except it takes more to wheel and deal them.
I disagree with this; since those alliances are already strongly fixed and the switching costs are very high, the power differential would need to be very massive to change. Penciling in 2% growth in the U.S. and 5% growth in China doesn’t move the needle substantially for decades. And of course, even assuming I am wrong, the U.S. is the least exposed economy to international trade so the US need for the foreign sector writ large is also quite small
Yes, the power differential needs to be massive, and losing entire continents and sectors of the world is exactly the massive change that needs to occur. America's economy pretty much isn't real; it's a house of cards that relies on making up value where there is none and hyping up the value of things that cancel themselves out like healthcare and education. It gets the things it needs to afford a high living standard to Americans through translating the imaginary value of this economy and its currency into real goods on the international market. The buttress of this house is trust in American power. If that is gone, the house collapses, or large parts of it. That is what will bring about massive change. 2% to 5% can drag on and it will eventually do it but this is the danger to America losing its image as the world's premier power.
In absolute terms, the U.S. has never been better. The relative stakes are small.
But absolute terms mean nothing; everything is relative. Any loss to China is seem as backbreaking humiliation to the US by itself. I've never heard anyone other than you say that the stakes of losing Asia are small. I truly hope this is how the Pentagon things because this will make things so much easier, but I doubt they do, at least not yet, not until they see their loss as imminent.
The stakes are low. Just because some people in DC hyperventilate doesnt make it real. The U.S. will have no physical harm and any economic disruption (let’s say gdp drops 20%) would vault the U.S. back to the living standards back to the horrible days of the late 2000s
Once again losing Asia is generally, by everyone except you, considered a huge problem. Now I do believe that the White House will talk like you to console the people when China makes this an inevitability, but once again, I agree that the harm done to the US in a potential fight with China far outweigh those stakes. Just as before, relativity matters.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
this will be my last response to this thread to prevent it from getting unwieldy
For free? I'll take 'em.
And get what exactly? What noticeably changes?
Same thing with developed countries except it takes more to wheel and deal them.
Developed countries can be far more ideological and have much more stable political orientations
Yes, the power differential needs to be massive, and losing entire continents and sectors of the world is exactly the massive change that needs to occur. America's economy pretty much isn't real; it's a house of cards that relies on making up value where there is none and hyping up the value of things that cancel themselves out like healthcare and education. It gets the things it needs to afford a high living standard to Americans through translating the imaginary value of this economy and its currency into real goods on the international market.
US service members in Germany are not imaginary, GE aircraft engines are not imaginary, and tariffs are not imaginary. The physical and material basis for US power is quite deep and stable. Has nothing to do with trust
But absolute terms mean nothing; everything is relative. Any loss to China is seem as backbreaking humiliation to the US by itself. I've never heard anyone other than you say that the stakes of losing Asia are small. I truly hope this is how the Pentagon things because this will make things so much easier, but I doubt they do, at least not yet, not until they see their loss as imminent.

Once again losing Asia is generally, by everyone except you, considered a huge problem. Now I do believe that the White House will talk like you to console the people when China makes this an inevitability, but once again, I agree that the harm done to the US in a potential fight with China far outweigh those stakes. Just as before, relativity matters.
Okay: the U.S. “loses” Asia and Europe. What happens the next day in the United States that makes it a calamity? No one seems to complete this thought because the answer is “nothing. No one outside of Washington DC notices anything because the U.S. is an island, both geographically and economically”. A few people in DC get mad for a few weeks and then they move onto the latest controversy about transgender potatoes. The stakes to the U.S. are low - there’s nothing at risk for the United States that has any material impact. A U.S.-China war happens within the 1IC and 2IC; it doesn’t go anywhere near even Hawaii. It’s just a sideshow, a cultural war item in presidential campaigns, a few tv news stories, etc. no one in the lower 48, Alaska or Hawaii will feel anything.

Again, the U.S. is very wealthy and has been very wealthy for very long while simultaneously being very large and geographically isolated. Said wealth and size is entirely prophylactic to the U.S. - the lack of international exposure in any realm makes any kind of foreign shock trivially small
 

ficker22

Senior Member
Registered Member
Thoughts on Task and Purpose claims "nobody is joining China's military"?

T&P is a grifting clout following idiot.

There is no shortage of volunteers in the PLA let alone possibility of conscription.

You wanna know a Place where real decline in quality service members happens? US Navy, and the whole Bundeswehr.
 
Last edited:

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
US will never lead in semiconductor production. Wafer capacity right now is South Korea, Taiwan, Mainland China as top 3 within 5% of each other and nobody else is even close.

I meant capacity at 10nm and below. There is no competition beyond TSMC and Intel.

Samsung has some market share, but their chips are fire (and not in the good way like kids these days say, they are just overheating and frying themselves)
 

supercat

Major
Life expectancy in the United States is negatively causal for wealth because the same risk-loving attitudes (ex., capital markets, entrepreneurship, and low regulation) that cause the U.S. to be wealthy also contribute to bad health outcomes (ex., cars and guns) and because wealth itself causes worse health outcomes (ex., affordable junk food, vehicular injury, and pollution).

PISA scores aren’t directly comparable because the U.S. has a universal academic track for high school, while nearly every other country separates high school into vocational and academic tracks. The sampling frame for U.S. PISA scores is for all adolescents, not for a top 40%. The U.S. having far more adversely selected students still outperforming half of the developed countries shows both wealth (in that the U.S. can afford universal academic secondary education) and effective program administration (adversely selected American cohorts outperform positively selected European cohorts)
Life expectancy, maternal and infant mortality etc are strongly and positively correlated with per capita GDP. The US is an outlier among developed/wealthy nations. PISA is a test for high school students, so I'm not sure why it has much to do with college or vocational school. Again, I'm not sure if these anomalies are caused by the excessive financial engineering during its wealth creation.

Tucker Carlson is not only a warmonger. He is a racist anti-China warmonger.

I'm shocked, shocked, to find out that some Westerners still want to colonize the rest of the world!

Even the Bloomberg can not tolerate the "rules-based world order" anymore.

Ditch the ‘Rules-Based International Order’​

The phrase is a linguistic atrocity, while the concept draws attention to American hypocrisy, in the Middle East and beyond. There’s an alternative.
...
My advice to Biden and other Western leaders is to send out a staff memo: Drop the rules-based international order in all speechifying, and instead pledge fealty to international law. Then hold Russia, China and Iran accountable to that standard — but also Israel and, yes, even the US when necessary.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Last edited:

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
this will be my last response to this thread to prevent it from getting unwieldy
It started out unwieldy because your argument that ceding control of Asia to China means nothing to the US is completely stupid, at least in the current context of the US still hoping to maintain a dominant global position (which doesn't always necessarily have to be the case as we'll see later in the post). In order words, the seed was retarded so the tree could only grow out crooked.
And get what exactly? What noticeably changes?
Obviously, to create an environment for China where not only does it not need to dedicate resources to foil hostile actions from its neighbors but eventually one where it can draw from them when/if needed. You don't even understand the geopolitical impact of being in a friendly vs hostile environment??
Developed countries can be far more ideological and have much more stable political orientations
Ideology is empty words. "Far more" ideological means nothing more than what I said, that they are won over by the same mechanisms as what would take to win over developing countries but they need more. Takes a lot more money bribe a crooked Judge to put an innocent man in jail than to bribe a crooked janitor to toss a roach into someone's locker but the mechanism is the same.
US service members in Germany are not imaginary,
They're also not America's economy.
GE aircraft engines are not imaginary,
That's true; that's a remnant of American technological manufacturing, and it is a sector that America is losing more and more to China. GE engines are definitely not imaginary, but they are a very small part of a huge US economy made, in large, of imaginary and/or self-cancelling services.
and tariffs are not imaginary.
They basically are. They're circumvented through taking things apart or routing through third party countries and all it is self-cancelling in that it is a tax on America's own people which will be paid to support other American people.
The physical and material basis for US power is quite deep and stable. Has nothing to do with trust
No, there is very little material left; it was true at the end of WWII but it has well faded by now. But America's self-painted image as the only hope for Western civilization and democracy is deep and stable in Europe... for now.
Okay: the U.S. “loses” Asia and Europe. What happens the next day in the United States that makes it a calamity? No one seems to complete this thought because the answer is “nothing. No one outside of Washington DC notices anything because the U.S. is an island, both geographically and economically”. A few people in DC get mad for a few weeks and then they move onto the latest controversy about transgender potatoes. The stakes to the U.S. are low - there’s nothing at risk for the United States that has any material impact. A U.S.-China war happens within the 1IC and 2IC; it doesn’t go anywhere near even Hawaii. It’s just a sideshow, a cultural war item in presidential campaigns, a few tv news stories, etc. no one in the lower 48, Alaska or Hawaii will feel anything.

Again, the U.S. is very wealthy and has been very wealthy for very long while simultaneously being very large and geographically isolated. Said wealth and size is entirely prophylactic to the U.S. - the lack of international exposure in any realm makes any kind of foreign shock trivially small
That's right, nothing. It's not like China's gonna slaughter or enslave the US population. So what's the big deal? Just give up! Abdicate! I once said that the US would, seeing its own power fade in relation to China's and without hope of maintaining a global hegemonic position, mellow out, just like you said. It's no longer a global superpower that demands things of its minions to feed its might but just a country minding its own business at home. It'd make life a whole lot better for Americans and I hope to see American politicians mellow down and retire America as the world police/leader peacefully. Sure beats WWIII. I'm glad you find this acceptable because most American politicians would scream like you dropped them into boiling water at such an idea. And although you have a low opinion of them, the unfortunate fact is that they hold a lot more sway over how the US behaves than you do. America needs guys like you in office, both as negotiators and policy makers, you know? But more importantly, China would like America to have more guys like you in positions of power in the US.
 
Last edited:

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I meant capacity at 10nm and below. There is no competition beyond TSMC and Intel.

Samsung has some market share, but their chips are fire (and not in the good way like kids these days say, they are just overheating and frying themselves)
That's a Samsung design problem with Exynos, not a Samsung foundry problem.

Samsung's 5 nm and 7 nm utilization is 80%-90% though only 50% for other nodes.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

SMIC utilization rate is also 90%+.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That implies demand is not the problem, the problem is capacity.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Life expectancy, maternal and infant mortality etc are strongly and positively correlated with per capita GDP.
Diminishing returnd
The US is an outlier among developed/wealthy nations.
The drivers of excess mortality are all positively correlated either with risk-taking or wealth.
PISA is a test for high school students, so I'm not sure why it has much to do with college or vocational school.
Everyone 14-18y/o goes to high school in the United States. Only ~40-60% of European 14-18y/o’s go to high school (the rest of them go to vocational schools). Assuming a normal distribution, the PISA average is measuring the 50th percentile in the United States but the 20th-30th percentile in other countries. And even with that substantial adverse selection in the United States, the United States is still in the 93rd percentile globally.
 
Top