this will be my last response to this thread to prevent it from getting unwieldy
And get what exactly? What noticeably changes?For free? I'll take 'em.
Developed countries can be far more ideological and have much more stable political orientationsSame thing with developed countries except it takes more to wheel and deal them.
US service members in Germany are not imaginary, GE aircraft engines are not imaginary, and tariffs are not imaginary. The physical and material basis for US power is quite deep and stable. Has nothing to do with trustYes, the power differential needs to be massive, and losing entire continents and sectors of the world is exactly the massive change that needs to occur. America's economy pretty much isn't real; it's a house of cards that relies on making up value where there is none and hyping up the value of things that cancel themselves out like healthcare and education. It gets the things it needs to afford a high living standard to Americans through translating the imaginary value of this economy and its currency into real goods on the international market.
Okay: the U.S. “loses” Asia and Europe. What happens the next day in the United States that makes it a calamity? No one seems to complete this thought because the answer is “nothing. No one outside of Washington DC notices anything because the U.S. is an island, both geographically and economically”. A few people in DC get mad for a few weeks and then they move onto the latest controversy about transgender potatoes. The stakes to the U.S. are low - there’s nothing at risk for the United States that has any material impact. A U.S.-China war happens within the 1IC and 2IC; it doesn’t go anywhere near even Hawaii. It’s just a sideshow, a cultural war item in presidential campaigns, a few tv news stories, etc. no one in the lower 48, Alaska or Hawaii will feel anything.But absolute terms mean nothing; everything is relative. Any loss to China is seem as backbreaking humiliation to the US by itself. I've never heard anyone other than you say that the stakes of losing Asia are small. I truly hope this is how the Pentagon things because this will make things so much easier, but I doubt they do, at least not yet, not until they see their loss as imminent.
Once again losing Asia is generally, by everyone except you, considered a huge problem. Now I do believe that the White House will talk like you to console the people when China makes this an inevitability, but once again, I agree that the harm done to the US in a potential fight with China far outweigh those stakes. Just as before, relativity matters.
Again, the U.S. is very wealthy and has been very wealthy for very long while simultaneously being very large and geographically isolated. Said wealth and size is entirely prophylactic to the U.S. - the lack of international exposure in any realm makes any kind of foreign shock trivially small