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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Eventine said:
The global situation is, by now, pretty transparent.

First, the war in Europe. It's important to realize that what's happening there is that a large fraction of Russian military power is being tied down by a smaller fraction of Western military power via the proxy of Ukraine. Despite all of mainstream media wanting you to believe otherwise, Ukraine post-invasion is practically a failed state. Its economy has collapsed and so much of its man power have either fled the country or been pressed into the trenches that without Western aid, they'd crumble in a few months. But they're still fighting because NATO is pushing them on.

Second, US leadership, having successfully tied down Russia, is preparing to direct the bulk of its resources against China - the actual threat from the perspective of US hegemony. Similar to Ukraine, it is attempting to do this through setting the stage in Asia for a proxy conflict. The proxies of choices are Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, and potentially South Korea. The US intends to bleed China with these proxies on the front lines, and all of them have unfortunately been infiltrated sufficiently by Western media and institutions and ideologies, that they'd actually be willing to go for it.

Third, not satisfied with the chances, the US hopes to create a second front against China with India, but the Indians are most likely not going to bite unless and until China is on the verge of defeat. Then the Indians, opportunistic as they always are, will happily join the war at the last minute to grab Chinese territory and "free Tibet."

This is the sort of scenario that Xi is likely referring to when he's telling the government to prepare for the worst. The US will happily stay on the back lines - as it has in Ukraine - while Asians kill each other. It's the perfect recipe for preserving US hegemony as you're bleeding both your strongest rivals and your strongest allies, simultaneously. This was effectively the US strategy in World War 2, as even though it lost troops, its homeland was never remotely threatened and that made the difference when it emerged from the war more powerful than ever.

Unfortunately, the US's Asian vassals have been so compromised that they actually believe in dying for Western hegemony. Against such dangerous delusions, China's best options can only be to not take the bait. If you allow yourself to be dragged into a war vs. the US's Asian proxies, the only possible winner is the US. To avoid that outcome, China should be patient and focus on self-strengthening - correcting the atrocious demographics, fixing the youth unemployment, catching up in areas like chips, etc. The goal in that respect is to expand the time horizon, reach better technological parity, and wait for the US to slip up, as inevitably it will.

Taiwan, at the end of the day, isn't going any where, and as much as Xi would like to be the leader that solved the Taiwan problem, taking the fight before you're ready is worse than living to fight another day.
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Ukraine war is no master plan of the west, that's just copium from their shills.

Russia may have been tied down, but it costs constant NATO attention to do so. More importantly, China remains completely untouched by the conflict. So what if NATO is bleeding slightly less than Russia is bleeding? Did anyone ever assume that Russia is China's main protector?

China has never counted on Russian troops to defend Taiwan. That's an absurd belief. So NATO weakening Russia at the cost of weakening itself just means that they become weaker vis a vis China.

China called the west's bluff in Ukraine and wasted their time, lives and resources for something that does not benefit American plans at all. Even in the event of a total US victory in Ukraine, all that would mean is a more submissive Russia for Chinese interests. Whether Russia owns the Donbass or even Crimea is not a huge deal for China, what Beijing needs from Russia is it's workforce and it's resources.

How powerful Russia's western border is, isn't of direct interest to China, even though a large Russia is beneficial to both.

There is no Asian proxy that can successfully invade China, hell, even the most powerful of them (Japan) would struggle if China suddenly decided to invade them. In Asia, there's no military power besides fully mobilized US that would stand a chance.

The difference between RU forces and PLA is like that between German or Polish forces and US military. Guangdong alone has higher gdp than all of Russia, and China is powered by all of Russia's and Central Asia's resources in addition to its own.

China has a very small peacetime military, but it has the industries to expand it by a lot. US isn't confident that they can win an offensive war against even the peacetime PLA with their own forces, so the idea that Philippines or Thailand which can't even control local rebellions or the ragtag KMT forces which are likely even worse at fighting than LDPR militia could pose a threat alone is really far from reality.
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
Biden is getting written in history as among the most economically delusional US presidents. What's getting my attention is US' inability to raise interests. The inflation they have is unacceptable for a developed economy yet even at 5% interest rates the economy stops functioning normally, despite massive govt budget deficits.328B0E8A-9F67-443B-B79E-46D3EFD9B15B.jpeg
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
getready said:
Aus is 2nd tier Anglo country. We listen to our US overlords. That GT articles paints a more rosy picture than reality. The ship has sailed on Aus aligning with China in any way. Ten years ago maybe. At that time questions were still being asked whether Aus could balance China and US relationship. But now it's clear. Aus has chosen security over trade and cooperation. Anglo hegemony over Chinese economy, science and tech. We shit on our biggest trading partner to please our US master. Heck we shit on our own citizens to please the US. Hence why you dun hear a peep from Albo or penny Wong about arguably Aus greatest journalist Assange but they continually criticize china about Cheng, the Aussie Chinese spy caught in china.
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That choice was always a complete lie and inversion of truth and reality. The only way China would ever have become a security threat to Australia is if Australia first became a security threat to China.

Australia could have had prosperity and security both, and all it had to do was nothing. Stay neutral in America’s race war against China and live free, rich and safe.

Instead it’s compromised leaders went the extra mile to needlessly and purposefully make Australia a clear and preset danger to China.

As a direct consequence of those deliberate choices, Australia is now destined to be a poor colony of America’s with an American occupation force quietly moving in under the guise of protectors while US intelligence completes its stranglehold over Australian political leadership, after already successfully taken over Australian intelligence and military as American agents and fronts fully bought out Australian ‘free’ media wholesale to brainwash the population

Australia’s trade to China replaced by American exports while its government coffers are drained empty to pay for American ‘protection’ as exemplified by the AUKUS sub scam.

If the new Cold War ever goes hot, Australia is intended to be the Asian Ukraine, after Japan and SK have fallen, as one more extra speed bump to keep China from coming to knock on America’s own front door.

Great trade Australia has made. Not even Donald Trump would have asked for more from Australia.
 
P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Eventine said:
The global situation is, by now, pretty transparent.

First, the war in Europe. It's important to realize that what's happening there is that a large fraction of Russian military power is being tied down by a smaller fraction of Western military power via the proxy of Ukraine. Despite all of mainstream media wanting you to believe otherwise, Ukraine post-invasion is practically a failed state. Its economy has collapsed and so much of its man power have either fled the country or been pressed into the trenches that without Western aid, they'd crumble in a few months. But they're still fighting because NATO is pushing them on.
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Neither things are transparent nor large faction of Russia military power tied. what is happening is Russia is testing various systems in realistic environment. Russia want to transform Europe through Ukraine but this making situation beneficial to countries like India, Japan and Korea. who will be attracting more Arab investments that want to diversify away from Europe. Arabs buying Boeings further enhances Japan position due its major role in Boeing supply chain. A weak and insecure Europe will become follower of India, Japan and Korea.
 
L

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
jwnz said:
I dare to say even if Taiwan declares independence, China should not start AR straight away. Yes, time is on our side. The only absolute redline IMO is if the US deploys nuclear weapons in Taiwan, then all bets are off.
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If the US can sneak nuclear bombers and nuclear subs into Australia without anybody noticing or batting an eye, of course they'll sneak nukes onto Taiwan. They'll just announce it after they do so (probably once they get the DPP in office for another term). It's not like the US is held accountable by petty things like international laws. Sure, they might receive yet another limp-wristed condemnation from the UN for active nuclear proliferation, but it's not like there will any real consequences. Most countries are basically abuse victims in a state of learned helplessness.

The US will continue to do whatever it wants and everyone will look the other way. Media control will make sure their allies completely forget about it in a few months. Meanwhile, China self-limits its own available actions because it tries to follow the rules set by the US and thinks maintaining a spotless global reputation matters to its actual success.

Remember, the bully always has the advantage because the stick always beats the carrot. PRC diplomatic denunciations usually have little to no consequences.

Look at how weak China's response has been to the US moving nuclear subs into South Korea and the suggestion of a Taiwan nuclear umbrella.
 
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plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
supersnoop said:
So a week after the government says it’s not really a problem (the CCP “targeting” Canadian parliament members), we have every one coming out the woodwork to say the CCP is spying on them. Even the loser of the last election whose career is effectively over. When you have a million Uighurs to keep an eye on, how can you still have time to keep tabs on a literal loser?
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You use the million Uighur prisoners to keep tabs on millions of western politicians, simples.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
luminary said:
If the US can sneak nuclear bombers and nuclear subs into Australia without anybody noticing or batting an eye, of course they'll sneak nukes onto Taiwan. They'll just announce it after they do so (probably once they get the DPP in office for another term). It's not like the US is held accountable by petty things like international laws. Sure, they might receive yet another limp-wristed condemnation from the UN for active nuclear proliferation, but it's not like there will any real consequences. Most countries are basically abuse victims in a state of learned helplessness.

The US will continue to do whatever it wants and everyone will look the other way. Media control will make sure their allies completely forget about it in a few months. Meanwhile, China self-limits its own available actions because it tries to follow the rules set by the US and thinks maintaining a spotless global reputation matters to its actual success.

Remember, the bully always has the advantage because the stick always beats the carrot. PRC diplomatic denunciations usually have little to no consequences.

Look at how weak China's response has been to the US moving nuclear subs into South Korea and the suggestion of a Taiwan nuclear umbrella.
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China doesn’t reply to theoretics, it responds to actual developments. The west can shit out a literal shit-ton of fake news stories every hour of every day, China would be run ragged and act like an absolute idiot trying to respond to them all.

But notice that the common thread underlying all of these empty gestures by the US is the complete and utter lack of any actual substantive changes in reality. Because the pentagon knows well that China does, and will respond to actual substantive changes, and has escalatory dominance such that any tiny gains the US makes from any such steps will be more than offset by the pushback from China.

Any nukes America sneaks into Taiwan will instantly become worse than useless with one announcement from Beijing - any nuke use by Taiwan will be seen as a nuclear first strike by the US and trigger an automatic and immediate Chinese nuclear retaliation strike against the US. Same thing with US nukes on SK. It changes absolutely nothing, which is why China is not bothering to overreact to it.
 
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